12 disclosed deals totaling $5.2B in the last 7 days, but concentration is extreme: Crusoe Energy Systems alone accounts for 75% of tape capital at $3.9B (Series F, $31B post-money, led by Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital, Valor Equity Partners). Ex-Crusoe, tape is $1.3B across 11 deals. Notable marks: Impulse Space $308M Series D extension at $5.6B (up 31.5% from $4.26B in June 2026); Factory $200M growth round at $5.0B (up 233% from $1.5B in April 2026); Profound $180M Series D at $1.8B (up 80% from $1.0B in February 2026). Temporal Series E $550M at $12.55B (up 151% from $5.0B in February) appears in trend data but not the displayed 12-deal tape. Instinct (AI) is in talks, not closed — treat as announcement only. Weekly tracked capital fell 34.9% vs prior week ($6.17B vs $9.47B), though prior week was inflated by large AI rounds.
Last-24h: WSJ reports young Chinese workers launching AI startups amid burnout and unemployment — a labor-market signal more than a capital-market one. Lenovo Ventures backed Chinese chip startup GeTong ZhiLian (amount undisclosed). TypeSafe AI's decision model reportedly became Vercel's fastest-adopted launch — a product-traction claim that corroborates its $40M seed. Nex Playground reported raising $150M and crossing 1M units (source: tech-insider.org, unverified). UK announced £500M for AI in drug discovery (government program, not a VC fund). BMO committed up to $70B for Canadian critical economic sectors — a bank lending commitment, not startup capital. Dutch AI chip startup Euclyd raised $231M with Samsung backing (per Tech Edition).
Tracked weekly capital: $6.17B across 22 rounds (21 disclosed), down 34.9% from $9.47B/25 rounds prior week. Sector rotation is the story: Energy surged to 65% of tracked capital ($4.04B/2 rounds) from 9% prior week, driven entirely by Crusoe. AI fell to 13% ($773M) from 32% ($3.06B) despite maintaining the highest round count (10). Software Development Applications appeared at $550M (Temporal Series E, Lightspeed). Fintech rose to $81M/3 rounds from $4.5M/1 round (+1700%) but off a tiny base. Cybersecurity dropped 77.5% to $72M/1 round from $320M/3 rounds. Defense & Space registered $308M (Impulse Space). These totals cover 2,497 tracked companies, not the full private market. One round missing weekly amount; 14 missing valuations.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 22 | 21 | $6.2B |
| Previous 7 days | 25 | 24 | $9.5B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -34.9%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 2 | 1 | $4.0B | +383.2% |
| AI | 10 | 4 | $773M | -74.7% |
| Software Development Applications | 1 | 0 | $550M | Not comparable |
| Defense & Space | 1 | 0 | $308M | Not comparable |
| Developer Tools | 1 | 0 | $200M | Not comparable |
| Fintech | 3 | 1 | $81M | +1700.0% |
| Robotics | 1 | 0 | $80M | Not comparable |
| Cybersecurity | 1 | 3 | $72M | -77.5% |
Six new post-money marks this week. Standout step-ups: Factory +233% ($1.5B→$5.0B in 5 months), Temporal +151% ($5.0B→$12.55B in 7 months), Profound +80% ($1.0B→$1.8B in 7 months), Impulse Space +31.5% ($4.26B→$5.6B in 3.5 months). Crusoe's $31B is a first-time mark (no prior recorded). TypeSafe AI seed at $200M and Vantora at $200M are also first marks. Markdown Watch board: 100 companies flagged, 123 scored. Top risk scores: Linktree (86/100, +482% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +225%), Xendit (80/100, +1958%). Recent markdown events: Upgrade -30.8%, Applied Intuition -60%, Axonius -61.5%. Mega-round board: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B. Angle Health reportedly reached $2.7B valuation (recent context, Fierce Healthcare).
| Company / Round Date | Reported Post-Money | Prior Post-Money / Date | Mark Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crusoe Energy Systems 2026-09-17 | $31B | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Impulse Space 2026-09-16 | $5.6B | $4.3B 2026-06-02 | +31.5% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Factory 2026-09-15 | $5.0B | $1.5B 2026-04-16 | +233.3% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Profound 2026-09-15 | $1.8B | $1.0B 2026-02-24 | +80.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| TypeSafe AI 2026-09-15 | $200M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Vantora 2026-09-15 | $200M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Pave Finance 2026-09-14 | $100M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Temporal 2026-09-14 | $13B | $5.0B 2026-02-17 | +151.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
12 disclosed deals totaling $5.2B in the last 7 days, but concentration is extreme: Crusoe Energy Systems alone accounts for 75% of tape capital at $3.9B (Series F, $31B post-money, led by Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital, Valor Equity Partners). Ex-Crusoe, tape is $1.3B across 11 deals. Notable marks: Impulse Space $308M Series D extension at $5.6B (up 31.5% from $4.26B in June 2026); Factory $200M growth round at $5.0B (up 233% from $1.5B in April 2026); Profound $180M Series D at $1.8B (up 80% from $1.0B in February 2026). Temporal Series E $550M at $12.55B (up 151% from $5.0B in February) appears in trend data but not the displayed 12-deal tape. Instinct (AI) is in talks, not closed — treat as announcement only. Weekly tracked capital fell 34.9% vs prior week ($6.17B vs $9.47B), though prior week was inflated by large AI rounds.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Crusoe Energy Systems | Series F | $3.9B | $31B | Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners | Energy |
| 2026-09-17 | Mazama Energy | Series B | $135M | — | Centaurus Capital and Doerr Capital | Energy |
| 2026-09-17 | MIND | Series B | $72M | — | Crosspoint Capital Partners | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-09-17 | Watney Robotics | Series A | $80M | — | Valor Atreides AI Fund and Hummingbird Ventures | Robotics |
| 2026-09-16 | Arcee AI | Series B | $150M | — | Vista Equity Partners / Cambium Capital / Emergence Capital (co-led) | AI |
| 2026-09-16 | Impulse Space | Series D extension | $308M | $5.6B | — | Defense & Space |
| 2026-09-15 | Factory | Growth round (series undisclosed) | $200M | $5.0B | — | Developer Tools |
| 2026-09-15 | Instinct | New round — IN TALKS, not closed | — | — | — | AI |
| 2026-09-15 | Profound | Series D | $180M | $1.8B | Sequoia Capital / Kleiner Perkins (co-led) | AI |
| 2026-09-15 | RegCell | Series A | $44M | — | Playground Global | Biotech |
| 2026-09-15 | TypeSafe AI | Seed | $40M | $200M | DCVC | AI |
| 2026-09-15 | Vantora | Growth equity (majority stake) | $100M | $200M | Silversmith Capital Partners | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
AI still leads by deal count (10 rounds, $773M) but capital dropped 74.7% week-over-week as mega-rounds shifted to energy. Energy pulled $4.04B across just 2 rounds vs $835M prior week (+383%). Seed-stage signal: TypeSafe AI raised $40M at $200M post-money (DCVC lead) — a large seed suggesting DCVC sees durable infrastructure value in AI type-safety. Arcee AI's $150M Series B (Vista/Cambium/Emergence co-led) confirms model-layer tooling remains fundable at scale. Vantora's $100M majority-stake growth equity by Silversmith at a $200M post-money is structurally notable: a PE-style control transaction at a modest mark, not a typical VC up-round. Most-active leads by total round size are Crusoe's trio (Atreides/Mubadala/Valor) at $3.9B, but that is a single deal.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners | 1 | $3.9B |
| Sequoia Capital / Kleiner Perkins (co-led) | 1 | $180M |
| Vista Equity Partners / Cambium Capital / Emergence Capital (co-led) | 1 | $150M |
| Centaurus Capital and Doerr Capital | 1 | $135M |
| Silversmith Capital Partners | 1 | $100M |
| Valor Atreides AI Fund and Hummingbird Ventures | 1 | $80M |
| Crosspoint Capital Partners | 1 | $72M |
| Playground Global | 1 | $44M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Last-24h PE signals: HarbourVest raised $2.4B (WSJ, fund vehicle — not direct startup capital). Spectrum Equity and JMI Equity both flagged as growth-equity players in software/AI (Dealroom profiles, no new fund announced). Silversmith Capital Partners' $100M majority-stake acquisition of Vantora at $200M post-money is the clearest PE-style control deal on the tape — a growth equity firm taking control at a modest valuation, structurally distinct from minority VC. Waystar considering going private (Yahoo Finance) signals continued public-to-private appetite. Bending Spoons' acquisition of Miro at 90% discount (Forbes, Sept 10) is a cautionary data point for SaaS founders expecting premium exits.
Last-24h: HarbourVest closed $2.4B (WSJ) — fund-of-funds/secondaries vehicle, not direct startup checks. Pulse Fund closed $63M inaugural fund targeting climate, infrastructure, food, mobility (Pulse 2.0, recent context) — a small first-time fund. UK government announced £500M for AI in drug discovery — public-sector program, not private fundraising. BMO's up-to-$70B Canadian sector commitment is a bank lending pledge, not a VC/PE fund. Canada 'wealth fund' proposal (EnergyNow) is policy debate, not a live vehicle. No new large VC funds announced in the last 24h. Sovereign wealth funds reportedly pulling back from China (Nikkei) — a potential LP allocation headwind for China-focused GPs. Overall, fund news is thin this cycle; the capital story is deal-level, not fund-level.
Last-24h M&A evidence is active but thin on deal specifics. Blackstone and Halliburton reported investing $1B in VoltaGrid (energy infrastructure). Infillion acquired Foursquare (location data) — terms undisclosed. Publicis reported acquiring LiveRamp for $2.2B. eSentire bought a stealth AI security startup (terms undisclosed). Bending Spoons acquired Miro at a 90% discount per Forbes (recent context, Sept 10) — a stark data point on SaaS unicorn markdowns in trade sales. Waystar Holding reported considering a return to private ownership. Manus reportedly in talks to raise $500M at $4B after a Meta merger deal fell through — this is an announcement, not a closed transaction.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2072 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Crusoe Energy Systems | 73 → 79 | +6 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-09-20 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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Weekend date — digest payload is available but weekday delivery is Mon–Fri only.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market landscape is characterized by heavy concentration in AI-linked infrastructure and specialized industrial AI, as evidenced by large-scale capital deployment into Vantora and sustained interest in verticalized healthcare solutions like Thatch. There is significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of current AI valuations, compounded by calls from industry leaders for increased nationalization and regulatory control over frontier technology.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,434.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 123 scored nightly, 2308 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +482% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +225% | $9.0B | 41 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1958% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +1011% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +644% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +457% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 7 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +229% | $3.0B | 54 mo ago |
| 8 | Pump | SaaS | 75 | High | +1553% | $1.5B | 28 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
56 markdowns detected all-time · 11 flagged beforehand · 45 missed · hit rate 19.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −30.8% | $7.3B → $5.0B | ✓ Flagged #64 · Moderate |
| Applied Intuition | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −60.0% | $15B → $6.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Axonius | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −61.5% | $2.6B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Digital Currency Group | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −80.0% | $10B → $2.0B | ✗ Missed |
| ChargeBee | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −6.7% | $3.8B → $3.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Increase | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −7.4% | $5.4B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Aurora Solar | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −9.1% | $4.4B → $4.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Razorpay | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −25.3% | $7.5B → $5.6B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Crusoe's $3.9B at $31B shows energy infrastructure can now command AI-scale checks. If you're building at the energy-compute intersection, investor appetite is real — but one deal does not make a sector. Don't assume your energy startup will get Crusoe terms.
100 companies on Markdown Watch; recent cuts of 30-62% at Upgrade, Applied Intuition, Axonius. Bending Spoons bought Miro at 90% discount. If your last round was a 2024-25 peak mark in SaaS, expect diligence on comparables.
Silversmith took a majority position in Vantora at $200M post-money. For founders who want partial liquidity without IPO risk, PE growth-equity control deals are real — but the valuation will be grounded, not aspirational.
Energy mega-rounds may continue if AI infrastructure demand persists, but the $3.9B Crusoe deal is an outlier — do not extrapolate sector averages from it. AI deal count remains high (10 rounds) but check sizes are compressing. Markdown pressure on 2024-era SaaS marks will intensify as public comps reset. Founders raising in Q4 2026 should price to current marks, not peak.