12 deals, $5.3B disclosed this week. Crusoe Energy Systems Series F ($3.9B at $31B post, led by Atreides/Mubadala/Valor) is 74% of tape capital. Energy sector went from zero prior-week rounds to $4.0B. AI capital fell 78% WoW to $673M despite 9 rounds — no mega-rounds this window vs prior-week concentration. Notable step-ups: Factory $5.0B (+233% from $1.5B in Apr), Temporal $12.55B (+151% from $5.0B in Feb), Impulse Space $5.6B (+31.5% from $4.26B in Jun), Profound $1.8B (+80% from $1.0B in Feb). Instinct (AI) is IN TALKS, not closed. TypeSafe AI seed at $200M post ($40M raise, DCVC lead) signals rich seed pricing. Weekly capital +7.5% vs prior week but composition shifted sharply to energy.
Last-24h: Canva marked down by T. Rowe Price and Franklin Templeton — major public-market fund managers cutting private marks. WSJ flags hidden risk in private credit and warns rising rates will worsen PE's bad year. L'Oréal selected Laminar for second L'AcceleratOR cohort. Chinese AI startup Moonshot landed Wall Street data deals. Nigerian Drive45 Mobility secured $3M debt facility. Viabot raised $24M Series A (robotic outdoor cleaning). Ravel raised $8.2M (clothing recycling/spandex). Comp AI raised $34M Series A (security/compliance automation, recent context). Manus targeting $4B valuation in first raise since forced Meta split — announcement of intent, not closed.
Tracked weekly: 19 rounds, $6.0B disclosed (trend book, not whole market). Energy emerged as dominant sector ($4.0B from 2 rounds) after zero prior-week activity — entirely Crusoe-driven. AI capital fell 78% WoW to $673M across 9 rounds, suggesting no mega-rounds this window after prior-week concentration. Software Development Applications appeared at $550M (Temporal). Fintech rose 1,700% WoW to $81M (off tiny $4.5M base). Cybersecurity fell 73% to $72M. Defense & Space reappeared at $308M (Impulse Space). Developer Tools at $200M (Factory). The energy surge is a single-deal effect, not a broad sector trend.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 19 | 18 | $6.0B |
| Previous 7 days | 22 | 21 | $5.6B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: +7.5%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 2 | 0 | $4.0B | Not comparable |
| AI | 9 | 4 | $673M | -78.0% |
| Software Development Applications | 1 | 0 | $550M | Not comparable |
| Defense & Space | 1 | 0 | $308M | Not comparable |
| Developer Tools | 1 | 0 | $200M | Not comparable |
| Fintech | 3 | 1 | $81M | +1700.0% |
| Robotics | 1 | 0 | $80M | Not comparable |
| Cybersecurity | 1 | 2 | $72M | -73.3% |
Reported post-money marks: Crusoe $31B (Series F, no prior comp available), Temporal $12.55B (+151% from $5.0B), Impulse Space $5.6B (+31.5%), Factory $5.0B (+233%), Profound $1.8B (+80%), TypeSafe AI $200M seed, Pave Finance $100M Series A. Markdown Watch: Linktree (86/100, +471% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +217%), Xendit (80/100, +1928%) — 100 on watch, 123 scored of 2,431 tracked. Recent markdown events: Upgrade (-30.8%), Applied Intuition (-60%), Axonius (-61.5%). Canva marked down by T. Rowe and Franklin Templeton (last-24h). Bending Spoons bought Miro at 90% discount (recent context). Step-ups and markdowns coexisting — bifurcation widening.
| Company / Round Date | Reported Post-Money | Prior Post-Money / Date | Mark Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crusoe Energy Systems 2026-09-17 | $31B | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Impulse Space 2026-09-16 | $5.6B | $4.3B 2026-06-02 | +31.5% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Factory 2026-09-15 | $5.0B | $1.5B 2026-04-16 | +233.3% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Profound 2026-09-15 | $1.8B | $1.0B 2026-02-24 | +80.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| TypeSafe AI 2026-09-15 | $200M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Pave Finance 2026-09-14 | $100M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Temporal 2026-09-14 | $13B | $5.0B 2026-02-17 | +151.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
12 deals, $5.3B disclosed this week. Crusoe Energy Systems Series F ($3.9B at $31B post, led by Atreides/Mubadala/Valor) is 74% of tape capital. Energy sector went from zero prior-week rounds to $4.0B. AI capital fell 78% WoW to $673M despite 9 rounds — no mega-rounds this window vs prior-week concentration. Notable step-ups: Factory $5.0B (+233% from $1.5B in Apr), Temporal $12.55B (+151% from $5.0B in Feb), Impulse Space $5.6B (+31.5% from $4.26B in Jun), Profound $1.8B (+80% from $1.0B in Feb). Instinct (AI) is IN TALKS, not closed. TypeSafe AI seed at $200M post ($40M raise, DCVC lead) signals rich seed pricing. Weekly capital +7.5% vs prior week but composition shifted sharply to energy.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Crusoe Energy Systems | Series F | $3.9B | $31B | Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners | Energy |
| 2026-09-17 | Mazama Energy | Series B | $135M | — | Centaurus Capital and Doerr Capital | Energy |
| 2026-09-17 | MIND | Series B | $72M | — | Crosspoint Capital Partners | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-09-17 | Watney Robotics | Series A | $80M | — | Valor Atreides AI Fund and Hummingbird Ventures | Robotics |
| 2026-09-16 | Arcee AI | Series B | $150M | — | Vista Equity Partners / Cambium Capital / Emergence Capital (co-led) | AI |
| 2026-09-16 | Impulse Space | Series D extension | $308M | $5.6B | — | Defense & Space |
| 2026-09-15 | Factory | Growth round (series undisclosed) | $200M | $5.0B | — | Developer Tools |
| 2026-09-15 | Instinct | New round — IN TALKS, not closed | — | — | — | AI |
| 2026-09-15 | Profound | Series D | $180M | $1.8B | Sequoia Capital / Kleiner Perkins (co-led) | AI |
| 2026-09-15 | TypeSafe AI | Seed | $40M | $200M | DCVC | AI |
| 2026-09-14 | Aron | Seed | $6M | — | Storm Ventures | AI |
| 2026-09-14 | Cornelis Networks | Series C | $205M | — | IAG Capital Partners | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Most-active leads by total round size: Atreides/Mubadala/Valor ($3.9B, 1 deal), IAG Capital ($205M), Sequoia/Kleiner co-lead ($180M), Vista/Cambium/Emergence co-lead ($150M). New fund vehicles announced: Pulse Fund closed $63M inaugural climate fund; Finvolve first close Rs 90 cr of Rs 250 cr fund for defense/aerospace/deeptech; Asiana Fund + JC Capital launched Rs 1,000 cr deeptech fund; SK hynix launched SK hynix Ventures CVC in Silicon Valley. Bain's $1.6B fund reported as AI-reshaped VC vehicle. Galaxy research notes crypto VCs deployed ~$5.6B in Q2 toward later-stage deals. Crunchbase analysis of 25K startup applications reveals shifting seed-stage norms. These are fund-size announcemen
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners | 1 | $3.9B |
| IAG Capital Partners | 1 | $205M |
| Sequoia Capital / Kleiner Perkins (co-led) | 1 | $180M |
| Vista Equity Partners / Cambium Capital / Emergence Capital (co-led) | 1 | $150M |
| Centaurus Capital and Doerr Capital | 1 | $135M |
| Valor Atreides AI Fund and Hummingbird Ventures | 1 | $80M |
| Crosspoint Capital Partners | 1 | $72M |
| DCVC | 1 | $40M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Last-24h: New Mountain Capital made PE investment in Appleby (law firm). WSJ warns rising rates will worsen PE's bad year and flags hidden risk in private credit. VRS terminated AQR strategy, reallocating to private markets. DC scheme private-market allocations could reach 30% by 2035 (Pensions Age). IPE conference reports investors blurring asset-class boundaries between private markets. Clearlake took full control of Chelsea after buying out Boehly and Walter. Tenet launched portal for accountants to offer forecasts/valuations — infrastructure for PE-adjacent services.
New fund announcements (last-24h): Pulse Fund closed $63M inaugural climate fund. Finvolve first close Rs 90 cr (target Rs 250 cr) for defense/aerospace/deeptech. Asiana Fund + JC Capital launched Rs 1,000 cr deeptech fund. SK hynix launched SK hynix Ventures CVC in Silicon Valley. Bain's $1.6B fund reported as AI-reshaping VC. VRS reallocating from AQR to private markets. DC pension allocations to private markets projected to reach 30% by 2035. Fund sizes are commitments/AUM, not deployed startup capital. National Law Review notes billion-dollar rounds rewriting startup playbook — relevant to fund strategy.
Last-24h M&A evidence is thin on deal value. Taboola acquiring Dianomi for up to £27M (finance advertising expansion). Ayana Bio and Zenfold buying Meati Foods's fermentation assets to scale plant cell culture in India. FCC approved Paramount-Warner Bros. merger foreign investment clearance. Kingsmen Software's three founders departed Sparq post-2024 acquisition — a cautionary post-acquisition retention signal. Bending Spoons acquired Miro at reported 90% discount (recent context, not last-24h). SpaceX reportedly targeting defunct startups' data for cheaper AI training materials — tangential to M&A but signals distressed-asset harvesting.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2072 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Nium | 49 → 63 | +14 |
| Slash | 56 → 62 | +6 |
| Current | 62 → 65 | +3 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-09-18 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
| Name | Round / detail | Amount / mark | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harmonic | formation | — | 2026-09-18 |
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The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is currently defined by massive capital concentration in AI infrastructure, evidenced by Crusoe's $3.9 billion raise and Bain Capital Ventures' $1.6 billion AI-focused fund. Despite this, there is mounting uncertainty in the broader debt and equity markets as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes begin to impact borrowing costs and potentially restrict the debt-fueled growth strategies that many AI-focused firms rely on.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 2 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — D-Robotics, Comp AI — 2,428 → 2,430. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 123 scored nightly, 2302 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +471% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +217% | $9.0B | 41 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1928% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +995% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +633% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +449% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 7 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +224% | $3.0B | 54 mo ago |
| 8 | Pump | SaaS | 75 | High | +1520% | $1.5B | 28 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
56 markdowns detected all-time · 11 flagged beforehand · 45 missed · hit rate 19.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −30.8% | $7.3B → $5.0B | ✓ Flagged #64 · Moderate |
| Applied Intuition | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −60.0% | $15B → $6.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Axonius | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −61.5% | $2.6B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Digital Currency Group | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −80.0% | $10B → $2.0B | ✗ Missed |
| ChargeBee | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −6.7% | $3.8B → $3.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Increase | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −7.4% | $5.4B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Aurora Solar | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −9.1% | $4.4B → $4.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Razorpay | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −25.3% | $7.5B → $5.6B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Crusoe's $3.9B at $31B shows energy infrastructure can absorb billion-dollar checks. If you're in energy, AI infrastructure, or data-center-adjacent hardware, capital is sector-rotating toward you. AI-only deals are getting smaller this week.
Factory (+233%), Temporal (+151%), Profound (+80%) raised at sharp step-ups while Canva gets cut by T. Rowe and Axonius dropped 61.5%. Quality and sector matter more than stage. Seed at $200M (TypeSafe AI) shows top-tier AI seeds still price rich.
100 companies on markdown watch. Bending Spoons bought Miro at 90% discount. Founder vesting acceleration in down-round bridges is being discussed openly. If your last round was 2024-2025 at peak comps, expect markdown pressure in secondary pricing even if you're growing.
Energy mega-rounds may continue if Crusoe signals broader infrastructure appetite, but one deal doesn't make a trend. AI capital decline is likely a timing gap, not a structural shift — watch for mega-rounds returning. Markdown pressure will intensify as public-market fund managers reprice 2024-2025 vintages. Founders raising now should expect bifurcation: step-ups for sector-favored deals, flat o