Five tracked deals, $1.4B disclosed. Polymarket ($1.0B strategic, $21B post, 1789 Capital) is the clear outlier — a fintech/prediction-market bet at scale. Gimlet Labs ($300M Series B, $3.0B, a16z) anchors the AI column. Two undisclosed rounds carry real signal: /dev/fast (Series A, $3.2B valuation) and Increase (Series C, $5.0B). Increase is the tension — it lands on the markdown ledger at -7.4% even as it clears a $5B mark. Token Security ($50M Series A, Notable Capital) rounds out cybersecurity. Headline-funded names outside the tape: Pixxel ($100M, Temasek, space-tech) and Navana.ai (INR 40 crore, voice AI). Window is light; concentration is high.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Five tracked deals, $1.4B disclosed. Polymarket ($1.0B strategic, $21B post, 1789 Capital) is the clear outlier — a fintech/prediction-market bet at scale. Gimlet Labs ($300M Series B, $3.0B, a16z) anchors the AI column. Two undisclosed rounds carry real signal: /dev/fast (Series A, $3.2B valuation) and Increase (Series C, $5.0B). Increase is the tension — it lands on the markdown ledger at -7.4% even as it clears a $5B mark. Token Security ($50M Series A, Notable Capital) rounds out cybersecurity. Headline-funded names outside the tape: Pixxel ($100M, Temasek, space-tech) and Navana.ai (INR 40 crore, voice AI). Window is light; concentration is high.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gimlet Labs | Series B | $300M | $3.0B | Andreessen Horowitz | AI |
| 2026-09-01 | Polymarket | Strategic round | $1.0B | $21B | 1789 Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-09-01 | Token Security | Series A | $50M | — | Notable Capital | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-09-01 | /dev/fast | Series A | — | $3.2B | — | Technology |
| 2026-09-01 | Increase | Series C | — | $5.0B | — | Fintech |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
European fund formation is the week's real story. Claret Capital closed €575m for biotech; Molten Ventures pulled €203m for growth-stage UK/EU tech and separately secured £175m first close on a £350M Growth Fund anchored by British Business Bank (£75m commitment). That's two meaningful pools directed at growth-stage European tech exactly when markdown pressure is loudest. Stateside, lead activity is thin — one deal each for 1789, a16z, Notable. No repeat leads this window. Carrick's reported 10x MOIC on its first CV is a secondaries bright spot worth noting.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| 1789 Capital | 1 | $1.0B |
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $300M |
| Notable Capital | 1 | $50M |
Named M&A skews small and strategic. Udaan acquiring Swiggy's LYNK for ₹500 cr is the largest disclosed figure — an IPO-readiness consolidation play. Nykaa's parent completed an additional 24.2% Earth Rhythm stake (follow-on, not new control). Accrual bought Puzzle's firm business to deepen AI-native accounting. Barilla's US macaroni acquisition and the talent-acquisition story are non-tech or tangential. Tech.eu flags €4.6B in European August deal volume — directional only, not in our tracked private set. No mega-private takeouts this window.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2030 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Thinking Machines Lab | 56 → 51 | -5 |
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market displays significant valuation volatility and high capital concentration in AI. While record capital ($510B in H1 2026) has flowed into the sector, the rapid valuation jumps (e.g., Wonderful, Higgsfield AI, Decagon) suggest extreme growth expectations alongside uncertainty regarding long-term commercial monetization, compounded by external environmental shocks to physical assets like the salmon farming sector.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,341.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 121 scored nightly, 2218 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +434% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +251% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1843% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +949% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +602% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +426% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +211% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
| 8 | Discord | Consumer | 75 | High | +650% | $15B | 59 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
52 markdowns detected all-time · 10 flagged beforehand · 42 missed · hit rate 19.2%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChargeBee | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −6.7% | $3.8B → $3.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Increase | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −7.4% | $5.4B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Aurora Solar | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −9.1% | $4.4B → $4.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Razorpay | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −25.3% | $7.5B → $5.6B | ✗ Missed |
| Immutable | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −28.6% | $3.5B → $2.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Zepto | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −35.7% | $7.0B → $4.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Neuralink | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −39.5% | $15B → $9.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Gong | 2026-09-07 | Mark cut −40.0% | $7.5B → $4.5B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Increase cleared a $5.0B Series C while sitting on a -7.4% mark cut. Down-mark and fresh-cap aren't mutually exclusive if the story holds. Don't self-select out of a round because your last mark moved.
/dev/fast's undisclosed Series A at $3.2B shows late-stage valuations creeping into early-stage rounds. Founder takeaway: be extremely deliberate about liquidation preferences and governance at these marks.
Molten and Claret collectively added ~€780m-plus in fresh firepower, with British Business Bank anchoring. UK/EU growth founders should be testing the market now — capital is deploying before markdown sentiment catches up.
Next window: watch whether Polymarket's $21B mark invites follow-on prediction-market activity or stays isolated. Sugar Cosmetics' ~80% valuation cut and N26's $9B-to-profitable arc confirm the markdown cycle is still grinding through consumer and fintech. Replit and Linktree remain on High watch — expect at least one of them to reprice or transact before Q4.