Three tracked deals, $1.3B disclosed — Polymarket is 77% of every dollar. 1789 Capital led the $1.0B strategic round at $21B, placing the prediction-market platform among the largest private fintech names. Owner's $240M Series D at $2.3B (Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives) signals continued appetite for vertical SaaS at scale. Token Security's $50M Series A from Notable Capital is the only early-stage tracked deal. No seed rounds crossed threshold. The tape is narrow and top-heavy: one mega-strategic plus two growth rounds. Markdown ledger: Enable (-44%), Shein (-48%), Fluidstack (-58.3%). Linktree, Replit, Xendit top the watch board at 86, 86, 80. 121 scored of 2,339 tracked.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Three tracked deals, $1.3B disclosed — Polymarket is 77% of every dollar. 1789 Capital led the $1.0B strategic round at $21B, placing the prediction-market platform among the largest private fintech names. Owner's $240M Series D at $2.3B (Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives) signals continued appetite for vertical SaaS at scale. Token Security's $50M Series A from Notable Capital is the only early-stage tracked deal. No seed rounds crossed threshold. The tape is narrow and top-heavy: one mega-strategic plus two growth rounds. Markdown ledger: Enable (-44%), Shein (-48%), Fluidstack (-58.3%). Linktree, Replit, Xendit top the watch board at 86, 86, 80. 121 scored of 2,339 tracked.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Polymarket | Strategic round | $1.0B | $21B | 1789 Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-09-01 | Token Security | Series A | $50M | — | Notable Capital | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-08-28 | Owner | Series D | $240M | $2.3B | Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives | Vertical SaaS |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
LP capital concentrating fast. Andreessen Horowitz added $1.75B to its AI-and-defense fund target — largest single commitment this window. Team8 raised $365M for AI-native enterprise. Smaller funds: Cherubic Ventures closed Fund VI at $68.88M (AUM past $500M), Mamor Capital $18.5M first close for SA tech, Aligned Climate launched a $500M distributed solar fund. Ares extending a Japan logistics fund series. Pattern is clear: AI and defense absorb the bulk of new LP commitments; emerging managers and climate carve-outs continue at smaller scale.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| 1789 Capital | 1 | $1.0B |
| Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives | 1 | $240M |
| Notable Capital | 1 | $50M |
UpGrad acquired Unacademy for $200M — a 94% cut from 2021 peak, the sharpest markdown-to-exit tracked this window. Dakar healthtech Tanel acquired by French insurance unicorn Alan, marking cross-border African-to-European consolidation. GoPro agreed to a $285M merger with Starman Optical. Hugging Face reportedly exploring a $13B sale after rejecting Nvidia capital — remains exploratory. Distressed sales and strategic tuck-ins outnumber transformative deals. Technical due diligence commentary surfaces as a recurring theme in deal-process coverage.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2023 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Valor | 58 → 62 | +4 |
| Labs | 48 → 52 | +4 |
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market shows signs of intense competition for AI infrastructure and energy-related startups, evidenced by major funding rounds for companies like Light and SciFin. Meanwhile, market concentration remains high as large incumbents and established venture firms like Andreessen Horowitz continue to aggregate capital. Uncertainty persists regarding the durability of AI-driven compute demand, highlighted by reports of potential 'illusory' power demand, while the SEC continues to police private fund activity.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,341.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 121 scored nightly, 2220 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +436% | $1.3B | 53 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +234% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1898% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +979% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +623% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +441% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | BetterUp | SaaS | 80 | High | +237% | $4.7B | 59 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +220% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
29 markdowns detected all-time · 7 flagged beforehand · 22 missed · hit rate 24.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enable | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −44.0% | $2.0B → $1.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Shein | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −48.0% | $50B → $26B | ✓ Flagged #89 · Moderate |
| Fluidstack | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −58.3% | $18B → $7.5B | ✓ Flagged #20 · Elevated |
| Together AI | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −60.2% | $8.3B → $3.3B | ✓ Flagged #51 · Elevated |
| Nscale | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −79.5% | $15B → $3.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Owner | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −88.5% | $20B → $2.3B | ✗ Missed |
| Splashtop | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Amperity | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
If you're not in prediction markets, cybersecurity, or vertical SaaS at growth stage, the tracked window was effectively closed. Don't read broad signals from a $1.3B week — it's one strategic round plus two outliers.
Unacademy went from peak to 94% off选手 in five years. If your last round was priced on 2021-22 comps, assume acquirers see the same markdown board your investors do. Price to clear, not to defend.
a16z adding $1.75B to an AI-defense vehicle while emerging managers close sub-$70M funds tells you where LP dollars are heading. If your thesis isn't AI, defense, or climate-adjacent, the GP fundraising path is narrowing.
September opens thin. Tracked tape is $1.3B but $1.0B is a single strategic. With a16z concentrating capital in AI/defense and 100 names on the markdown ledger, pricing pressure persists through Q4. Founders with runway should wait; those without should price to clear.