Eight tracked rounds in the last 7 days, ~$151.5B disclosed across 7 of 8 (Armada's Series B amount undisclosed). Concentration is extreme: OpenAI's $142B late-stage primary, led by Nvidia and SoftBank, is ~94% of weekly capital. Excluding it, six disclosed deals total ~$9.5B — Wayve $1.1B Series D (SoftBank Group), Astro Digital $180M SPAC/PIPE (announced), Prime Intellect $50M Series A (Founders Fund), Wonderful $34M Series C (Index), Modulate $25M. Round count collapsed from 48 last week to 8; the +5,587% weekly capital change is a one-deal artifact, not a market-wide surge. AI took 5 of 8 rounds. Note two tape entries are acquisitions, not raises: World Labs/AMD ($8.2B, announced) and Astro Digital's SPAC merger.
Macro backdrop: a soft US jobs report sent the Nasdaq to a record high (Pension Pulse), and a UCLA forecast projects California outpacing the US economy on AI, aerospace and defense. Inc42 examines why banks are taking stakes in AI labs — relevant given Nvidia's lead on the OpenAI round. Elsewhere: three Indian space startups launched tech on a Falcon 9; Austin startups raised $3.3B+ in September; Live Nation is backing creator-economy startup Creator Nation. Regional ecosystem items (Utah, Ireland, Kazakhstan) are partnership announcements, thin on financial terms.
Tracked-book weekly scope only — 8 disclosed rounds, not the whole private market. Sector swings are base-effect noise: AI +21,880% versus last week purely on OpenAI; Defense -100% and Insurtech -100% reflect zero rounds this week against small prior-week bases ($51M and $60M). Space/Defense fell just 10% on the Astro Digital announcement. The honest read: deal count fell 48→8 while dollars exploded on one transaction. Coverage remains strong on amounts (1 of 2,358 eligible rounds missing) but thin on valuations (8 missing this week).
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 8 | 7 | $152B |
| Previous 7 days | 48 | 47 | $2.7B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: +5586.9%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 5 | 13 | $150B | +21879.6% |
| Automotive | 1 | 1 | $1.1B | +1135.3% |
| Space / Defense | 1 | 1 | $180M | -10.0% |
| Defense | 1 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Space | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Education | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Insurtech | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Business/Productivity Software | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
Headline marks, all reported figures: FieldAI reportedly hit $10B after a $700M raise, more than quadrupling in just over a year (per TradingView-sourced report); ElevenLabs doubled to $22B with a $300M employee share sale; KuCoin claims Anthropic's private valuation surged 22x — unverified, treat with caution. Anthropic IPO speculation (TradingKey, Investing.com) frames Amazon/Alphabet gains as a possible 'volatility trap.' Groq raised $350M at $3.5B while pivoting from chips to neocloud (recent context). Reminder: valuation changes are not investment returns, and paper marks on the Markdown Watch (Linktree +736%, Replit +247% vs public comps) cut the other way.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Eight tracked rounds in the last 7 days, ~$151.5B disclosed across 7 of 8 (Armada's Series B amount undisclosed). Concentration is extreme: OpenAI's $142B late-stage primary, led by Nvidia and SoftBank, is ~94% of weekly capital. Excluding it, six disclosed deals total ~$9.5B — Wayve $1.1B Series D (SoftBank Group), Astro Digital $180M SPAC/PIPE (announced), Prime Intellect $50M Series A (Founders Fund), Wonderful $34M Series C (Index), Modulate $25M. Round count collapsed from 48 last week to 8; the +5,587% weekly capital change is a one-deal artifact, not a market-wide surge. AI took 5 of 8 rounds. Note two tape entries are acquisitions, not raises: World Labs/AMD ($8.2B, announced) and Astro Digital's SPAC merger.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Armada | Series B | — | — | — | Defense |
| 2026-10-01 | OpenAI | Late-stage primary | $142B | — | Nvidia, SoftBank | AI |
| 2026-10-01 | Prime Intellect | Series A | $50M | — | Founders Fund | AI |
| 2026-10-01 | Wayve | Series D | $1.1B | — | SoftBank Group | Automotive |
| 2026-10-01 | Wonderful | Series C | $34M | — | Index Ventures | AI |
| 2026-09-28 | Astro Digital | SPAC merger + PIPE (announced) | $180M | — | Proem Asset Management | Space / Defense |
| 2026-09-28 | Modulate | Venture | $25M | — | Future Ventures | AI |
| 2026-09-28 | World Labs | Acquisition (announced) | $8.2B | — | AMD | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
The SF Examiner reports Q3 venture funding dropped to a 'muted' level — a counterweight to this week's headline dollar figure. The tape itself supports the bifurcation thesis: one mega-round plus small Series A–C checks ($25M–$50M) for AI infrastructure and voice/agent startups (Prime Intellect, Wonderful, Modulate), with nothing in between. CryptoRank's Q3 crypto recap and a first-close bluetech fund show specialized managers still raising. NYT opinion coverage of VC political spending is context, not a market signal. Most-active leads on displayed tape: Nvidia/SoftBank ($142B round), AMD ($8.2B, an acquisition), SoftBank Group ($1.1B) — lead attribution listed is by total round size, not check size.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia, SoftBank | 1 | $142B |
| AMD | 1 | $8.2B |
| SoftBank Group | 1 | $1.1B |
| Proem Asset Management | 1 | $180M |
| Founders Fund | 1 | $50M |
| Index Ventures | 1 | $34M |
| Future Ventures | 1 | $25M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Policy risk is live on two fronts: Rep. Pocan introduced H.R. 10595, the 'Stop Wall Street Looting Act,' while the National Taxpayers Union warns of broader congressional action against PE — expect carry-tax and liability debates to persist. Deal activity: Siigo acquired Chile's Bsale with a $100M Latam expansion plan; Jolt Capital acquired Mirova's PE business to move into early-growth investing. A new interactive tool tracks US healthcare PE exposure. Africa Private Equity News logged 38 new African private-capital transactions. All are reported items; terms mostly undisclosed.
Fundraising showed select strength amid a stated crunch: Ares closed its inaugural Global Structured Solutions Fund at ~$4.2B, and Investcorp raised $1.22B for middle-market deals 'during a fundraising crunch' — the framing itself signals LP discipline. Blue Owl's flagship saw withdrawal requests slow as private credit turmoil eases (Reuters) — an early stabilization signal, not recovery. European Business Magazine profiles Gulf capital's stake in Europe. Anthropic IPO coverage dominates the AI-liquidity conversation. None of these fund sizes implies deployment into startups this week.
Two announced deals on the tape, neither closed: AMD's $8.2B acquisition of World Labs (Fei-Fei Li's embodied-AI startup) is the largest, and a Vocal piece reports embodied-AI founders are nervous about it — worth reading as a signal that scale capital may now favor incumbent acquirers over new entrants. Broader announced activity: Stripe buying Parafin (embedded lending behind DoorDash/Gusto), Inworld acquiring Seattle voice-AI startup Ultravox (ex-Fixie), Supabase raising $150M and acquiring Turso, and Replit acquiring Atta per fwdstart. Treat all as announcements pending close.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2247 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| SOURCE | 59 → 41 | -18 |
| Token Security | 58 → 47 | -11 |
| Exa | 67 → 62 | -5 |
| EliseAI | 57 → 62 | +5 |
| Paid | 53 → 49 | -4 |
| Vercel | 61 → 58 | -3 |
| Wonderful | 62 → 65 | +3 |
| Humanoid | 54 → 57 | +3 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-03 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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Weekend date — digest payload is available but weekday delivery is Mon–Fri only.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market remains heavily concentrated in AI-infrastructure and vertical AI applications, with massive rounds ($1B for Instinct, $4B valuation for EliseAI) suggesting continued investor confidence despite broader market uncertainty. Financing is increasingly skewing toward deterministic AI enterprise solutions over open-ended tools.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Armadin — 2,590 → 2,591. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 125 scored nightly, 2465 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +736% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +247% | $9.0B | 41 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 83 | High | +140% | $2.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1829% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +942% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +598% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +422% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +209% | $3.0B | 54 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
63 markdowns detected all-time · 12 flagged beforehand · 51 missed · hit rate 19%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Databricks | 2026-09-28 | Mark cut −29.5% | $190B → $134B | ✓ Flagged #92 · Moderate |
| Apex | 2026-09-28 | Mark cut −56.5% | $2.3B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Firework | 2026-09-28 | Mark cut −95.7% | $18B → $750M | ✗ Missed |
| Anchorage Digital | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −28.6% | $4.2B → $3.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Etched | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −51.5% | $10B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Found | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −70.0% | $2.0B → $600M | ✗ Missed |
| Public | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −99.4% | $190B → $1.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Upgrade | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −30.8% | $7.3B → $5.0B | ✓ Flagged #64 · Moderate |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
OpenAI's round is ~94% of tracked weekly capital. If you're benchmarking your raise against this week's 'tape,' you're reading one deal. The realistic comps are Prime Intellect ($50M Series A), Wonderful ($34M Series C) and Modulate ($25M) — modest checks for AI infra and voice startups, and zero mid-stage rounds on the displayed tape.
AMD's announced $8.2B acquisition of World Labs drew coverage noting embodied-AI founders are nervous. Implication: strategic acquirers with balance sheets may set the clearing price for frontier-adjacent research startups, raising the bar for venture-backed challengers. If you're building in embodied AI, map your likely acquirers now.
The markdown ledger shows Databricks cut -29.5%, Apex -56.5%, Firework -95.7%, with 100 names on watch — even as FieldAI reportedly quadrupled and ElevenLabs doubled. Late-stage pricing is being re-graded deal by deal. Per recent LBS and KoreaTechDesk pieces, execution gaps get collected at the next round; full-ratchet terms can wipe out founders. Model your down-case now.
One mega-round is masking a quiet tape: 8 deals versus 48 last week, and Q3 reporting calls funding 'muted.' Watch whether Anthropic IPO chatter converts to a filing, whether AMD-World Labs and Astro Digital close as announced, and whether Blue Owl's slowing redemptions mark a real private-credit turn. Base rates say the $151.5B week is an outlier, not a trend.