Three tracked deals this week, $1.1B disclosed — Polymarket is $1.0B of it. The prediction-market platform closed a strategic round at a $21B valuation led by 1789 Capital, a single deal carrying nearly all the week's dollar volume. Token Security drew a $50M Series A from Notable Capital in cybersecurity. /dev/fast raised a Series A at a $3.2B valuation, amount undisclosed. Headline-sourced context: Velaura AI raised $110M for ultra-low-power compute, Israeli startups reported $1.16B raised in September's first two days, ParlayX took $1.25M pre-seed from Dreamcraft. Mega-round board holds: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Three tracked deals this week, $1.1B disclosed — Polymarket is $1.0B of it. The prediction-market platform closed a strategic round at a $21B valuation led by 1789 Capital, a single deal carrying nearly all the week's dollar volume. Token Security drew a $50M Series A from Notable Capital in cybersecurity. /dev/fast raised a Series A at a $3.2B valuation, amount undisclosed. Headline-sourced context: Velaura AI raised $110M for ultra-low-power compute, Israeli startups reported $1.16B raised in September's first two days, ParlayX took $1.25M pre-seed from Dreamcraft. Mega-round board holds: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Polymarket | Strategic round | $1.0B | $21B | 1789 Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-09-01 | Token Security | Series A | $50M | — | Notable Capital | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-09-01 | /dev/fast | Series A | — | $3.2B | — | Technology |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
LP-side fundraising stayed active. Omri Casspi's Swish Ventures closed $250M for its third fund. Belgium's WAD Capital hit €67.5M first close on its debut fund with a €25M EIF commitment. Mussafer Investment pushed 1834 Ventures toward $20M. Newcomer's India Quotient piece on the VC power law is worth reading for anyone recalibrating portfolio construction. On infra, Equinix and CPP closed their atNorth acquisition.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| 1789 Capital | 1 | $1.0B |
| Notable Capital | 1 | $50M |
Two large strategic AI deals frame the M&A path. Nvidia is acquiring Hugging Face for $12.9B — CNBC called it a 'defensive move' about more than chips, consolidating model-serving infrastructure. Adobe bought Peak XV-backed Rilo, its second India acquisition, to expand automated marketing workflow tools. Outside tech: Barilla acquired Gal Gadot-backed Goodles; Pirkx joined Pri0r1ty Intelligence as it expanded into employee wellbeing.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2023 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| /dev/fast | 46 → 60 | +14 |
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market exhibits extreme concentration in AI-related funding, which continues to command massive premiums and majority share of venture capital flows. Despite high-profile raises, there is palpable uncertainty regarding enterprise buying patterns, with research suggesting ARR security is declining. Investors remain bifurcated between 'giant' brand-name funds and specialized boutique firms, while the IPO window remains focused on high-valuation, late-stage AI entities.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Catch — 2,340 → 2,341. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 121 scored nightly, 2219 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +424% | $1.3B | 53 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +248% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1790% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +920% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +583% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +411% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | Hugging Face | AI | 80 | High | +370% | $13B | 36 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +202% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
29 markdowns detected all-time · 7 flagged beforehand · 22 missed · hit rate 24.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enable | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −44.0% | $2.0B → $1.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Shein | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −48.0% | $50B → $26B | ✓ Flagged #89 · Moderate |
| Fluidstack | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −58.3% | $18B → $7.5B | ✓ Flagged #20 · Elevated |
| Together AI | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −60.2% | $8.3B → $3.3B | ✓ Flagged #51 · Elevated |
| Nscale | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −79.5% | $15B → $3.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Owner | 2026-08-31 | Mark cut −88.5% | $20B → $2.3B | ✗ Missed |
| Splashtop | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Amperity | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Polymarket commands $21B while Sugar Cosmetics crashes ~80% and Slice takes a ~70% cut. Category leaders with real infrastructure moats still clear mega-rounds; consumer brands without defensible economics get marked to reality. Know which side you're on.
Nvidia's $12.9B Hugging Face deal and Adobe's Rilo acquisition show strategic acquirers paying up for AI infrastructure and workflow automation. If you're building in those lanes, acquirer interest is live — but so is the bar for relevance.
100 companies sit on the markdown watch. Recent cuts: Fluidstack -58.3%, Shein -48%, Enable -44%. Linktree, Replit, and Xendit are flagged high-risk. If your last round was 2024-2025 at peak, model a 40-60% haircut before your next raise.
September opened with a single mega-deal carrying the tape. Expect Polymarket's $21B round to pull prediction-market and fintech-infra into focus for Q4. The markdown wave — Sugar, Slice, and 100 on watch — will pressure late-stage marks through year-end. Founders should price realism now.