A thin tracked week: one disclosed round, $800M, all cybersecurity. Cyera's Series G extension priced at a reported post-money $12B, unchanged from its Sept 22 mark, with Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Growth Equity) leading. That makes Goldman the most active lead on displayed tape by round size, though this is one deal, not a check-size signal. Weekly comparison is against a zero-deal prior week, so week-over-week change is not meaningful. Coverage note: 2,456 eligible rounds in the book; 100 companies on the markdown watch; 2,573 of 126 scored companies remain unscored, so read percentages as tracked-book samples, not market-wide.
Late-cycle news skews energy and compute: Project Omega raised $80M Series A for a closed nuclear fuel cycle, and former Trump energy officials launched a Houston startup to mass-produce modular data centers. Firefly Aerospace reported roughly 260% Q3 revenue growth. Cautionary counterweights: Forbes Middle East reports MENA startup funding fell 96% in October, and Chosunbiz reports China robot startups facing bankruptcies as investment and valuations drop. Regional acceleration exists too — UK defence tech investment nearly tripled to £720m in 2026.
Tracked-book weekly totals: 1 round, $800M, all in Cybersecurity; prior week zero. Sector breadth is therefore not measurable this week. External trend signals are bifurcated: UK defence tech tripling to £720m and impact-lending topping £13bn point to specific capital channels deepening, while MENA's 96% October drop and China robotics retrenchment show regional and sectoral pullbacks. Family offices and banks continuing fintech analysis suggests strategic capital still circling. None of these totals cover the full private market.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 1 | 1 | $800M |
| Previous 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: Not comparable. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cybersecurity | 1 | 0 | $800M | Not comparable |
AI pricing remains contested. Howard Marks says AI is hard to value with rates moderate by historical standards. Anthropic's mooted IPO faces valuation-cut pressure after a reported $2.5T public-market rout, with investors questioning timing. OpenAI's first funding tranche landed at $11B with a $1.25T valuation below its original target, per BigGo. Against that, Mercor's $20B and Zipline's reported valuation jump with an expanded Walmart deal show capital still paying up selectively. China robotics valuations falling is the downside bookend.
| Company / Round Date | Reported Post-Money | Prior Post-Money / Date | Mark Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyera 2026-11-05 | $12B | $12B 2026-09-22 | 0.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
A thin tracked week: one disclosed round, $800M, all cybersecurity. Cyera's Series G extension priced at a reported post-money $12B, unchanged from its Sept 22 mark, with Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Growth Equity) leading. That makes Goldman the most active lead on displayed tape by round size, though this is one deal, not a check-size signal. Weekly comparison is against a zero-deal prior week, so week-over-week change is not meaningful. Coverage note: 2,456 eligible rounds in the book; 100 companies on the markdown watch; 2,573 of 126 scored companies remain unscored, so read percentages as tracked-book samples, not market-wide.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Cyera | Series G extension | $800M | $12B | Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Growth Equity) | Cybersecurity |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund formation is active across small and mid-cap AI: Stage 2 Capital closed $100M for early-stage B2B AI; Proximal Ventures closed a $27.5M debut fund for AI in drug development; Korea's Mashup Ventures raised a 25.9B won fund for ultra-early AI and deep tech without policy capital. On the deal side, Reuters reports Mercor raised $750M at a $20B valuation (reported post-money per its Series D coverage). PitchBook's plan to give startups free access while feeding a VC tool is a data-flow shift worth watching. Treat fund closes as closes only where stated; Stage 2 and Proximal are reported as closed.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Growth Equity) | 1 | $800M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Morgan Stanley outlines five imperatives for middle-market PE in an evolving market; Macfarlanes publishes a GP capital solutions toolkit — both signals that structured/GP-stakes tools are becoming standard practice. Bain tells PEI it would 'never tell our teams they must invest,' a discipline marker worth noting against deployment pressure. Clearlake grew its Chelsea FC stake; Main Capital's Sjoerd Aarts laid out UK expansion plans. Robiquity's agreed sale to Avanade is a mid-market automation exit to watch. Details are thin in headlines; confirm terms before underwriting.
LP flow is broadening geographically. NYSCRF committed $1.6bn in September, led by PE. Taiwan's sovereign wealth fund bill is taking shape with NT$30bn initial capital and a draft due by year-end. Saudi PIF is exploring new funding options as reported war strain on finances persists — a liquidity-risk flag for a major LP. NVP Capital held first close on Fund III for critical industries; the UAE's startup-investor network keeps expanding. Fund sizes are LP commitments, not startup investment; don't conflate.
Two buyer types on display: mega-platform and vertical acquirer. OpenAI acquired AI travel startup Odessia, per WSJ and Skift, bringing on Sonder's co-founder; terms undisclosed, so treat as a tuck-in, not a valuation datapoint. Oura is acquiring AI-native primary care startup Counsel Health for a reported $625M per TechCrunch — note The Verge frames it as an acquisition in progress. In PE-adjacent dealmaking, Growth Capital Partners-backed Robiquity agreed a sale to Avanade (announced, closing not confirmed in the headline). CVC DIF, Carlyle and EQT appear in security-related deals per PEI roundup.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Labs | 47 → 52 | +5 |
| Cadence | 58 → 61 | +3 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-11-10 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
No rows in the report window.
No rows in the report window.
No rows in the report window.
No rows in the report window.
No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is heavily concentrated in AI and automation, with significant capital flowing into late-stage AI infrastructure and specialized enterprise agents. There is notable valuation volatility—exemplified by companies like Nominal moving rapidly in valuation—and high uncertainty surrounding the regulatory climate, specifically regarding AI safety and data usage. Despite market noise, philanthropic activity by major AI players like Anthropic remains a strategic signal of ecosystem entrenchment ahead of major liquidity events like IPOs.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 3 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Bay, Snapp, Humble Robotics — 2,772 → 2,775. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +820% | $1.3B | 56 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +475% | $9.0B | 43 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 86 | High | +165% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1615% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +826% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +520% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +364% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +303% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
95 markdowns detected all-time · 22 flagged beforehand · 73 missed · hit rate 23.2%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 2026-11-09 | Mark cut −31.8% | $1250B → $852B | ✓ Flagged #79 · Moderate |
| Kraken | 2026-11-09 | Mark cut −48.3% | $21B → $11B | ✓ Flagged #84 · Moderate |
| TRM Labs | 2026-11-09 | Mark cut −50.0% | $2.0B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Incode | 2026-11-09 | Mark cut −64.0% | $3.0B → $1.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Current | 2026-11-09 | Mark cut −88.0% | $13B → $1.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Dadi Cinema | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −10.5% | $3.2B → $2.9B | ✗ Missed |
| OpenAI | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −10.7% | $1400B → $1250B | ✓ Flagged #72 · Moderate |
| CoinDCX | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −12.2% | $2.5B → $2.1B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Cyera's $800M extension priced at the same $12B as September — no pop, no cut, heavy lead. If you're prepping a bridge or extension, expect flat pricing plus strong lead anchoring as the clearing template, and structure for the next round to prove the mark.
Our ledger shows recent cuts of -31.8% (OpenAI), -48.3% (Kraken) and -50% (TRM Labs), while scores flag Linktree, Replit and Kajabi well above public comps. When raising, anticipate investors discounting your headline AI/tech multiple against these precedents. Build the valuation bridge to public comps explicitly.
Oura-Counsel Health at a reported $625M and OpenAI's tuck-in of Odessia show both vertical acquirers and platforms buying capability. But Robiquity's sale is an 'agreed' deal, not closed. If you're considering a 2027 exit, vertical strategics with clear product overlap are the most active buyer set right now.
One-deal weeks cut both ways: capital is available but concentrating in proven cyber/AI names at flat-to-stretched marks. Watch Anthropic IPO pricing and PIF liquidity as bellwethers for whether late-stage marks hold into year-end.