Tracked tape (2,699 companies, 7-day window): two disclosed rounds totaling $17B — DeepSeek's $16B Series A led by China's National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) on Oct 30, and Kalshi's $1.0B Series F on Oct 29. Prior week logged zero disclosed rounds, so week-over-week comparisons are not meaningful (change reported as null, not growth). Note the concentration: one deal is ~94% of the week's capital. Most-active lead on the displayed tape is the Big Fund, but that reflects total round size, not its check. 2,573 of 2,699 tracked companies remain unscored; two weekly rounds lack valuation data.
Last-24h items: XOVR's early Kalshi stake has increased in estimated value by more than $23M (Morningstar) — a paper estimate, not a realized sale; Uber now owns 11.5% of Lucid after pouring in $500M; Ottawa is reported spending $1.6B on Cohere; ElevenLabs' CEO says a 'good goal' is starting IPO prep in 2028 — aspiration, not filing. Recent context: OpenAI cut its funding round target by $10B to $20B amid market jitters, and Ramp is reported at a $60B valuation after a $1.85B round. Counterweight: Swish.ai raised $20M then sold for $150,000 in insolvency.
Sector splits on the displayed tape: Technology one round, $16B (DeepSeek); Fintech one round, $1B (Kalshi) — both versus zero the prior week, so change percentages are null, not gains. Weekly totals cover only tracked disclosed rounds, not the private market. Off-tape color: Businessday NG reports Benin overtook Kenya and South Africa as Africa's third-largest startup funding destination in 2026; an African battle-royale game studio, Rise of Fearless, raised $1M. African Development Bank's Mozambique report calls for scaled-up private-sector financing. Two deals make trend reads fragile.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 2 | 2 | $17B |
| Previous 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: Not comparable. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 1 | 0 | $16B | Not comparable |
| Fintech | 1 | 0 | $1.0B | Not comparable |
Markdown watch board tops, all scored 86/100 (High): Linktree (+767% vs public comps), Replit (+345%), Kajabi (+149%). 126 companies scored, 2,573 unscored — coverage is thin and these premia compare private marks against public comps. Recent markdown ledger events: OpenAI mark cut -10.7%, Dadi Cinema -10.5%, CoinDCX -12.2%; 100 names on watch. OpenAI also sits atop the mega-round board at a reported $122B, alongside DeepSeek and Waymo at $16B each. Valuation markdowns are not investment returns.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Tracked tape (2,699 companies, 7-day window): two disclosed rounds totaling $17B — DeepSeek's $16B Series A led by China's National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) on Oct 30, and Kalshi's $1.0B Series F on Oct 29. Prior week logged zero disclosed rounds, so week-over-week comparisons are not meaningful (change reported as null, not growth). Note the concentration: one deal is ~94% of the week's capital. Most-active lead on the displayed tape is the Big Fund, but that reflects total round size, not its check. 2,573 of 2,699 tracked companies remain unscored; two weekly rounds lack valuation data.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | DeepSeek | Series A | $16B | — | China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | Technology |
| 2026-10-29 | Kalshi | Series F | $1.0B | — | — | Fintech |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund formation is the quiet story: Robin Capital closed a second €15M fund targeting AI, robotics and space; Evertrue Capital launched a $17M fund for European AI startups; Savory closed $201.5M for AI, healthcare and defense (all last-24h reports). Against that, YourStory reports VC funding into Indian startups plunged 66% in October — a regional divergence worth watching. These are fund sizes, not deployment. Trajectory's $45M round (TechCrunch) and Agrani Labs' reported $108M raise effort from Peak XV, Google and Samsung with a valuation jump round out the flow, though the latter is a raise-in-process, not a closed deal.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | 1 | $16B |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
PE evidence is deal-flow heavy but detail-light. Key items: Francisco Partners and KKR taking minority stakes in TeamSystem (H&F-backed); MedImpact to acquire VytlOne assets; Future Standard commentary that high rates boost US mid-market co-investment potential; Deetken Impact launching a climate-resilience growth fund. Baron Focused Growth's Q3 contributors/detractors note and the XOVR/Kalshi valuation gain round out flow. Excerpts were empty on several items, so deal terms (stake sizes, pricing) are not confirmable from this evidence — treat as reported, not verified.
LP-side signals: GIC's CEO flagged that AI concentration makes diversification more challenging and emphasized liquidity — a sober counterpoint to AI-driven marks. KWAP is pivoting toward private equity to build domestic market capacity. Cohere drew Ottawa-backed support reported at $1.6B. Uber's $500M into Lucid lifted its stake to 11.5% — corporate balance-sheet deployment, not a fund. Israel 2026 regional-shift analysis and the UK's growing role as a base for African tech expansion round out context. Jerusalem Post and GIC items are macro commentary, not fund closes.
Semis dominated: Marvell agreed to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock AI connectivity deal, and Onsemi announced a $600M all-cash acquisition of Ferric while raising its 2030 AI data-center revenue target (agreements announced, closings not confirmed). CrowdStrike is reported to be buying two AI security startups — targets unnamed in the evidence. Elsewhere, Francisco Partners and KKR are taking minority stakes in H&F-backed TeamSystem, and MedImpact is reported to be acquiring VytlOne assets. TermSheet Capital commentary flags Indian AI and data startups as prime M&A targets for US and European acquirers.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Labelbox | 42 → 61 | +19 |
| SiMa.ai | 44 → 62 | +18 |
| FuriosaAI | 56 → 68 | +12 |
| Enable | 48 → 44 | -4 |
| Together AI | 62 → 59 | -3 |
| Revolut | 68 → 65 | -3 |
| Exa | 62 → 65 | +3 |
| Posit | 39 → 42 | +3 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-11-02 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is showing a stark bifurcation. While early-stage AI funding remains robust, exemplified by the $11M round for Clark and the closure of new AI-focused funds like BAG Ventures and Reach Capital, there is significant uncertainty regarding late-stage valuation sustainability. High-profile companies are facing reduced fundraising targets (OpenAI) and significant losses (Anthropic) alongside intense investor caution regarding AI infrastructure spending and monetization scalability.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Clark — 2,753 → 2,754. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +767% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +345% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 86 | High | +149% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1790% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +920% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +583% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +411% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +267% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
90 markdowns detected all-time · 20 flagged beforehand · 70 missed · hit rate 22.2%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dadi Cinema | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −10.5% | $3.2B → $2.9B | ✗ Missed |
| OpenAI | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −10.7% | $1400B → $1250B | ✓ Flagged #72 · Moderate |
| CoinDCX | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −12.2% | $2.5B → $2.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Devoted Health | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −36.0% | $25B → $16B | ✗ Missed |
| Sila | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −42.4% | $3.3B → $1.9B | ✗ Missed |
| Prove | 2026-11-02 | Mark cut −73.2% | $2.0B → $537M | ✗ Missed |
| Flock Safety | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −10.7% | $8.4B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Agility Robotics | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −26.5% | $3.0B → $2.2B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Two deals and $17B in a week where DeepSeek alone is $16B means the aggregate says almost nothing about breadth. If you're fundraising, don't anchor to headline capital — the median round on this tape is Kalshi-scale or well below it, and prior week was zero.
OpenAI took a -10.7% mark cut and reportedly trimmed its round target by $10B, while three markdown-watch names carry triple-digit premia to public comps. Expect later-stage investors to demand tighter comp-anchored pricing; model your raise against public multiples, not last cycle's private marks.
Marvell–Lumentum, Onsemi–Ferric at $600M, and CrowdStrike's reported dual AI-security buys show strategics consolidating AI infrastructure and security. For founders in those categories, a $600M-scale cash exit is a live comparable — but announced deals aren't closed deals.
Watch whether DeepSeek's Big Fund-led round signals sustained state-backed semiconductor capital or a one-off. OpenAI's trimmed target and mark cut suggest late-stage repricing pressure; Kalshi's $1B Series F plus the XOVR mark gain keep prediction markets on the radar. Semis M&A pace worth tracking for consolidation-driven exits.