Two disclosed rounds totaling $17B in the last 7 days across 2,699 tracked companies: DeepSeek's $16B Series A (2026-10-30), led by China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund), and Kalshi's $1.0B Series F (2026-10-29). The previous week showed zero tracked rounds, so week-over-week percentage comparisons are not meaningful (change reported as null). Technology accounted for $16B of disclosed capital on one deal; Fintech $1.0B on one deal — both sectors' prior-week figures were zero. Coverage note: 2,453 eligible rounds in scope; zero missing weekly amounts, two missing weekly valuations. Two deals is a very thin sample; the $17B total is dominated by a single round and should not be read as a market-wide reacceleration.
The dominant story is OpenAI: Reuters (recent context) reports the funding target was cut by $10B to $20B amid a tech rout (FT-sourced), and Firstpost (recent context) reports a $150B cut to its valuation target. Note the tracked mega-round board still displays OpenAI at $122B — a board mark, not confirmation of a new closed round. Also in recent context: Sierra is reportedly seeking funding at a $20B valuation (announcement/seeking stage, not closed), and an Anthropic-linked security incident involving an AI startup was reported. Last-24h items are lighter: space (Reaction Dynamics targets 2031 for a medium-lift launch) and a $60M close by BY Venture Partners for AI-focused Fund III.
A recurring theme in recent-context coverage: venture is 'booming again, but the money is flowing to fewer startups' (FinancialContent) — concentration at the top, not breadth. Our own tape reflects that: one $16B deal is 94% of the week's disclosed capital. Broader market data (Dar es Salaam equity turnover +147% week; India listed new-age tech tracker) sits outside our tracked private-company scope and is not directly comparable. The Anthropic hack story is a security trend flag for the AI ecosystem rather than a funding signal. Caveat: our weekly totals cover 2,699 tracked companies' disclosed rounds, not the whole private market.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 2 | 2 | $17B |
| Previous 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: Not comparable. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 1 | 0 | $16B | Not comparable |
| Fintech | 1 | 0 | $1.0B | Not comparable |
No new reported post-money marks entered the valuations array this week; the array is empty. Markdown Watch board top: Linktree (86/100, High, +756% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, High, +309%), Kajabi (85/100, High, +146%) — 126 companies scored, 2,573 unscored, so coverage is thin. Markdown ledger: 100 names on watch; recent events include Flock Safety (mark cut -10.7%), Agility Robotics (-26.5%), and Kr Space (-73.8%). Context items: Ramp reportedly at $60B after a $1.85B round (single-source tracker — treat as reported, and as post-money round mark, not a realized return); the $13B hypersonic startup profile in Fortune is a reported valuation, not a new round in our tape.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Two disclosed rounds totaling $17B in the last 7 days across 2,699 tracked companies: DeepSeek's $16B Series A (2026-10-30), led by China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund), and Kalshi's $1.0B Series F (2026-10-29). The previous week showed zero tracked rounds, so week-over-week percentage comparisons are not meaningful (change reported as null). Technology accounted for $16B of disclosed capital on one deal; Fintech $1.0B on one deal — both sectors' prior-week figures were zero. Coverage note: 2,453 eligible rounds in scope; zero missing weekly amounts, two missing weekly valuations. Two deals is a very thin sample; the $17B total is dominated by a single round and should not be read as a market-wide reacceleration.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | DeepSeek | Series A | $16B | — | China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | Technology |
| 2026-10-29 | Kalshi | Series F | $1.0B | — | — | Fintech |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Weekly roundup coverage (YourStory, Oct 24-30) describes VC inflows as remaining modest, consistent with our thin two-deal tape. Galaxy data (recent context) shows crypto venture investment fell 20% to $4.5B in Q3 with only three new funds closed — a sector-specific contraction worth monitoring. On the fund side, B Capital reportedly doubled assets to $12B (CEOWORLD, last 24h — asset base, not deployment), and Volition Capital closed an oversubscribed $950M Fund VI (PEI, recent context). Regional activity is picking up in pockets: Arab News reports momentum across funding and new markets, and India-focused coverage tallied $132M+ in startup raises for the week (Inc42, recent context).
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | 1 | $16B |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Last 24h: Investcorp announced aggregate financial activity for 2026 at the Gateway Gulf Investment Forum (Zawya) — the excerpt does not disclose amounts, so treat as an announcement with thin detail. Texas Teachers said it aims to do more direct deals with a trimmed PE allocation (PEI, last 24h) — an LP allocation shift worth tracking. Mendocino County is weighing liquidity risk as it considers a PE allocation (recent context). Policy watch: Gulf sovereign funds could face UK property tax from 2029 (EnterpriseAM, last 24h). KKR published a piece arguing exits are the real test of PE performance (recent context) — thematically aligned with our markdown ledger.
Fund closes reported this week: Volition Capital closed an oversubscribed $950M Fund VI (PEI, recent context); BY Venture Partners closed its third fund at $60M targeting AI companies (last 24h). New fund plans: TVS Capital is planning a $79M private-credit fund for India's mid-market (Dealroom, recent context). LP-side signals cut both ways: Texas Teachers trimming PE allocation in favor of direct deals, while Mendocino County deliberates on entering with liquidity concerns. Crypto remains an outlier: only three new crypto funds closed in Q3 per Galaxy. None of these fund sizes should be read as startup investment volume — they are commitments raised, not capital deployed.
M&A signals are mostly unconfirmed or unnamed. Stocktwits (last 24h) reports SpaceX is reportedly nearing a $60B acquisition of Cursor — treat as a report, not a confirmed deal; the same item notes AI startup rebranding plans. Intel's acquisition of quantum software startup Classiq is reported (Stocktwits, last 24h). The Jerusalem Post (last 24h) says an Israeli company is being sold for $420M; the target is not named in the available data. PEI's 'Catch a ride on the tech buyout wave' (recent context) points to continued tech buyout interest. A cautionary datapoint: Swish.ai raised $20M and later sold for $150,000 in insolvency (Startup Fortune, recent context) — a reminder that raised capital does not guarantee exit value.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| TRM Labs | 58 → 62 | +4 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-31 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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Weekend — payload available; weekday auto-DM is Mon–Fri 8:00 AM PT.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is currently defined by significant concentration in AI and cybersecurity sectors, evidenced by mega-valuation talks for firms like Cyera ($20B) despite high levels of macro uncertainty and fears over AI monetization. While capital persists for infrastructure-heavy plays like Reliable Robotics, there is notable volatility in the broader market, underscored by massive crypto-related hacks (Binance) and downward revisions in funding targets (OpenAI).
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,738.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +756% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +309% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 85 | High | +146% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1843% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +949% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +602% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +426% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +268% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
84 markdowns detected all-time · 19 flagged beforehand · 65 missed · hit rate 22.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flock Safety | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −10.7% | $8.4B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Agility Robotics | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −26.5% | $3.0B → $2.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Kr Space | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −73.8% | $6.8B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Posit | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −83.8% | $5.0B → $811M | ✗ Missed |
| KuCoin | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −50.0% | $20B → $10B | ✗ Missed |
| Replicate | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −96.1% | $9.0B → $350M | ✓ Flagged #59 · Elevated |
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Two rounds, $17B — and $16B of it is one deal. Coverage elsewhere says VC is 'flowing to fewer startups.' If you're raising outside AI mega-themes, assume a narrower set of checks than headlines suggest, and anchor your round plan on the modest median, not the DeepSeek outlier.
Flock Safety (-10.7%), Agility Robotics (-26.5%) and Kr Space (-73.8%) took markdowns, while Linktree, Replit and Kajabi flag High markdown risk vs public comps. If your last round predates the AI selloff, model a down-scenario before your next raise or investor meeting.
OpenAI cutting its raise target by $10B to $20B and reportedly its valuation target by $150B (both recent-context reports, not our confirmed tape) tells you even tier-one names are adjusting to market conditions. Use that as cover to reset expectations early rather than defend a stale number.
Tape is thin and single-deal-driven; treat $17B as an outlier week, not a trend. Watch whether OpenAI's reduced target closes as reported, whether the SpaceX-Cursor report firms up, and for fresh marks on the 100-name watch list. Q3 crypto data and LP allocation shifts argue for continued selectivity into November.