Twelve disclosed rounds totaling $18B sit on the freshest-dated window (Oct 8–23). One deal dominates: DeepSeek's $16B Series A, announced led by China's Big Fund — a state semiconductor vehicle leading an AI lab round, which we report as filed. Strip it out and the remaining 11 deals total roughly $2B, a thin base. Largest AI checks: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at $7.5B post-money (a16z) and Atlas Atomics' $400M at $1.9B (General Catalyst, Energy). Benchmark led a $60M Seed into Hone at a $285M valuation — an unusually large, priced seed. Space took two Series A/beta tickets (Kapta $24M, Fortastra $30M). Reminder: 'most-active leads' figures are total round sizes, not individual checks. The tracked-book trend series shows zero rounds this week versus one $16B round last week — a -100% capital change that is a dating artifact of DeepSeek's size, not evidence of a market freeze.
General news is thin today and mostly non-deal. India's GENESIS EIR 3.0 launched with grants up to Rs 10 lakh for early-stage tech; Platform Calgary named its next 10 startups for a Nov 2 showcase. Funding-adjacent reports (titles only, unverified details): Infisical raised a $40M Series B at a $600M valuation; CopperPilot, an AI design agent for electronics hardware, raised $390K; a silent-speech glasses startup raised $1.3M; Nigerian-born engineer Akinbile raised $3.8M for an AI startup. Chicago startups pulled fresh funding in factory robots, energy and medtech. None of these are in our verified round tape; treat sizes as reported.
The tracked-book series (2,699 companies; disclosed rounds only, not the whole market) shows 0 rounds and $0 capital this week versus 1 round and $16B last week — a -100% weekly change driven entirely by DeepSeek's outsized, previously-dated round. The display window (Oct 8–23) still holds 12 deals and $18B, so the divergence is dating, not a halt in activity. Sector view matches: Technology ran 0 vs 1 round ($16B prior). Broader context from reporting: India PE/VC investment surged 46% to $17B in the September quarter per cited coverage. Coverage quality: 2,453 eligible rounds; no missing weekly amounts or valuations this period.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
| Previous 7 days | 1 | 1 | $16B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -100.0%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
OpenAI dominates: multiple outlets report the funding target cut by $10B to $20B (last 24h), following an earlier reported $150B trim to its valuation target (Oct 23 context). Smartkarma asks whether an IPO would be a down round — we flag the debate, not a conclusion. Sierra is reportedly seeking a $20B valuation (announcement, not closed). Ramp is reported at $60B after a $1.85B round. On the markdown side: 100 names on watch; recent mark cuts include Kr Space -73.8%, Agility Robotics -26.5%, Flock Safety -10.7%. Markdown Watch scores 126 of 2,699 tracked companies — coverage is limited; Linktree (86/100, +756% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +309%) and Kajabi (85/100, +146%) top the board.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Twelve disclosed rounds totaling $18B sit on the freshest-dated window (Oct 8–23). One deal dominates: DeepSeek's $16B Series A, announced led by China's Big Fund — a state semiconductor vehicle leading an AI lab round, which we report as filed. Strip it out and the remaining 11 deals total roughly $2B, a thin base. Largest AI checks: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at $7.5B post-money (a16z) and Atlas Atomics' $400M at $1.9B (General Catalyst, Energy). Benchmark led a $60M Seed into Hone at a $285M valuation — an unusually large, priced seed. Space took two Series A/beta tickets (Kapta $24M, Fortastra $30M). Reminder: 'most-active leads' figures are total round sizes, not individual checks. The tracked-book trend series shows zero rounds this week versus one $16B round last week — a -100% capital change that is a dating artifact of DeepSeek's size, not evidence of a market freeze.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | DeepSeek | Series A | $16B | — | China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | Technology |
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Hone | Seed | $60M | $285M | Benchmark | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Kapta Space | Series A | $24M | — | Washington Harbour Partners | Space |
| 2026-10-09 | Klarent | Seed | $8M | — | Mosaic Ventures | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | Meticulous | Series A | $15M | — | Chemistry | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | TypeSafe AI | Series A | $870M | $7.5B | Andreessen Horowitz | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Ultra | Series A | $50M | — | Framework Ventures | Robotics |
| 2026-10-08 | Atlas Atomics | Series A | $400M | $1.9B | General Catalyst | Energy |
| 2026-10-08 | Catalyst | Seed | $30M | — | Sequoia Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-10-08 | Fortastra | Series A | $30M | — | First In | Space |
| 2026-10-08 | GUDEA | Seed | $7M | — | Mudita Venture Partners, Collide Capital | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
The contrast this cycle: a $16B state-led round on one end, crypto venture down 20% to $4.5B in Q3 with only three new funds closed per Galaxy on the other. Galaxy's data and investor warnings that faster fund cycles may strain LPs both point to a tightening distribution of capital — mega-rounds clear, mid-market raises don't. India is building counter-cyclical infrastructure: 15 funds finalized under the $1.05B Startup India fund-of-funds, and DPI Venture Capital closed its fund above $112M. Regional coverage (Indiana) confirms a harder fundraising climate outside the AI core. Read the tape accordingly: breadth is narrowing even as headline dollars hold.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | 1 | $16B |
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $870M |
| General Catalyst | 1 | $400M |
| Benchmark | 1 | $60M |
| Framework Ventures | 1 | $50M |
| Sequoia Capital | 1 | $30M |
| First In | 1 | $30M |
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
TPG landed a double: first close on $5B for its fifth flagship fund and a final close on its debut Asia growth vehicle at $1.3B — both reported as closed. One Planet Partners said it will deploy over ₹3,000 crore into high-growth Indian businesses — a deployment plan, not a completed investment. KKR published on exits as the real test of PE performance, a useful counterweight to mark-based reporting amid markdown pressure across private books. New Jersey is weighing next moves after cutting its PE allocation target — a notable LP-side signal. Healthcare PE coverage points to priorities shifting beyond growth. Directionally: capital is still being raised and deployed, but LPs are becoming more explicit about liquidity and allocation discipline.
TVS Capital is expanding into private credit with the launch of TVS Alts, targeting a Rs 750 crore fund — a diversification move by an established venture firm into an adjacent asset class. TPG's $5B first close on flagship five and $1.3B Asia growth close anchor the week's fund formation. On the LP side, New Jersey's cut to its PE target and follow-up deliberations are the most consequential datapoint: public plans trimming PE exposure ripple through future vintages. India's $1.05B fund-of-funds finalizing 15 managers adds a state-backed channel for emerging funds. Caveat throughout: fund sizes and closes are not startup investments, and targets are not final closes.
Salesforce agreed to acquire defense AI startup Rune Technologies for $375M, extending its Missionforce push — a clean outcome for a venture-scale defense software bet. Harvey continued its acquisition run, buying a startup from Glean's co-founder (terms undisclosed). Apple acquired Ascend.io, an agentic AI engineering startup (recent context; terms undisclosed). The pattern across these three: sub-scale but strategically positioned AI teams are being absorbed quickly rather than raised into independence. At the bottom of the market, Daytona.com reportedly sold for $500,000 as buyers pay up for brand domains — a separate, tiny lane. We treat all deal reports as announcements unless closing is explicit; Salesforce/Rune is reported as agreed.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| TRM Labs | 58 → 62 | +4 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-30 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market landscape on October 30, 2026, is characterized by extreme concentration in mega-rounds, with significant capital flowing into AI, robotics, and manufacturing infrastructure. While large capital raises (e.g., Re:Build, Kalshi) suggest continued confidence in specific sectors, there is underlying uncertainty as tech stocks experience a broad sell-off and companies like OpenAI face pressure to lower fundraising targets. Investor stress is intensifying, likely due to a combination of high valuation expectations and concerns regarding debt-fueled spending.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 2 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Re:Build, Dren Bio — 2,738 → 2,740. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +756% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +309% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 85 | High | +146% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1843% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +949% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +602% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +426% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +268% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
84 markdowns detected all-time · 19 flagged beforehand · 65 missed · hit rate 22.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flock Safety | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −10.7% | $8.4B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Agility Robotics | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −26.5% | $3.0B → $2.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Kr Space | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −73.8% | $6.8B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Posit | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −83.8% | $5.0B → $811M | ✗ Missed |
| KuCoin | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −50.0% | $20B → $10B | ✗ Missed |
| Replicate | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −96.1% | $9.0B → $350M | ✓ Flagged #59 · Elevated |
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Reports say OpenAI cut its funding target by $10B to $20B, after an earlier reported $150B valuation-target trim. If the category leader is resizing, your mid-stage raise will not escape the same gravity. Build plans that close at the lower bound, and don't anchor to last quarter's comps.
Hone took $60M at Seed against a $285M valuation — priced like a Series A. Meanwhile Swish.ai reportedly raised $20M and later sold for $150,000 in insolvency. Mark-to-model valuations are opinions; the ledger (Kr Space -73.8%, Agility -26.5%) shows how fast they move. Raise for runway, not for headline.
Salesforce agreed to buy Rune Technologies for $375M; Harvey and Apple both absorbed small AI teams this week. For founders in applied AI without a path to a $1B+ independent round, strategic acquisition is a live, liquid alternative — and buyers are moving before the valuation window narrows further.
Watch three threads into November: whether OpenAI's reported $20B raise actually closes at the reduced target and what that does to AI late-stage comps; whether the quiet tracked-book week (post-DeepSeek) extends or reverts; and whether LP signals — New Jersey's cut PE target, Galaxy's thin crypto fund formation — harden into slower 2027 vintage fundraising. Sierra's reported $20B raise is the next big test of price tolerance.