12 dated rounds, $18B disclosed across the freshest window — but the tracked book recorded zero new rounds this week versus $16B the prior week (the 10/23 DeepSeek round), a -100% weekly change that reflects the quiet window, not a market halt. Concentration is extreme: DeepSeek's $16B Series A, led by China's Big Fund, is 89% of disclosed capital; the other 11 rounds total ~$2B. TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a $7.5B valuation (a16z) and Atlas Atomics' $400M at $1.9B (General Catalyst) are the next largest. Lead totals are round sizes, not individual checks. Coverage caveats: 2,699 tracked companies, 2,573 unscored.
Fresh-24h items with no amounts: edTech changing hands at lower prices (MarketScale), seven urgent-care deals with a multi-revenue-stream thesis (PEI), and PE reshaping Greek businesses (tovima). India PE/VC investment jumped 45% to $7B in September, the highest in over two years (Economic Times) — a monthly regional figure, not a startup round tape. The UK launched a defence finance taskforce with a £15bn investment commitment (FF News). African funding's next test, per TechTrendsKE, is whether investors can get money back — liquidity, not deployment, is the constraint. Travel tech funding heads toward a multiyear low despite the AI push (Crunchbase) — a useful sector-level downside data point.
Tracked-book weekly totals cover disclosed rounds of tracked companies only, not the private market: 0 rounds and $0 this week vs 1 round and $16B last week — effectively the DeepSeek round rolling out of the window. Sector table shows the same Technology-only swing. India's $7B September figure and the UK's £15bn defence commitment are market-wide or policy numbers, not this book. CEE defence tech is seeing partnership-driven momentum (The Recursive). Read the -100% as calendar timing plus thin windows, not a capital strike — but with 2,573 of 2,699 companies unscored, treat sector claims as provisional.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
| Previous 7 days | 1 | 1 | $16B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -100.0%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
Two AI valuations moved on real money: Cohere hit a $20.5B valuation with Nvidia and the Canadian government involved, including up to $1.6B federal investment inside a $7B fundraise (Financial Post) — the $1.6B is a government commitment, not the round total. Cyera is reportedly in talks toward a $20B valuation — talks, not closed. The bear side is loud: one analysis ties Alphabet's capex and CoreWeave's setbacks to an end-of-boom question for AI infrastructure valuation; OpenAI reportedly cut $150B from its valuation target (Firstpost, 10/23). Valuations on the tape: Hone $285M, TypeSafe AI $7.5B, Atlas Atomics $1.9B.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
12 dated rounds, $18B disclosed across the freshest window — but the tracked book recorded zero new rounds this week versus $16B the prior week (the 10/23 DeepSeek round), a -100% weekly change that reflects the quiet window, not a market halt. Concentration is extreme: DeepSeek's $16B Series A, led by China's Big Fund, is 89% of disclosed capital; the other 11 rounds total ~$2B. TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a $7.5B valuation (a16z) and Atlas Atomics' $400M at $1.9B (General Catalyst) are the next largest. Lead totals are round sizes, not individual checks. Coverage caveats: 2,699 tracked companies, 2,573 unscored.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | DeepSeek | Series A | $16B | — | China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | Technology |
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Hone | Seed | $60M | $285M | Benchmark | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Kapta Space | Series A | $24M | — | Washington Harbour Partners | Space |
| 2026-10-09 | Klarent | Seed | $8M | — | Mosaic Ventures | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | Meticulous | Series A | $15M | — | Chemistry | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | TypeSafe AI | Series A | $870M | $7.5B | Andreessen Horowitz | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Ultra | Series A | $50M | — | Framework Ventures | Robotics |
| 2026-10-08 | Atlas Atomics | Series A | $400M | $1.9B | General Catalyst | Energy |
| 2026-10-08 | Catalyst | Seed | $30M | — | Sequoia Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-10-08 | Fortastra | Series A | $30M | — | First In | Space |
| 2026-10-08 | GUDEA | Seed | $7M | — | Mudita Venture Partners, Collide Capital | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
The tape's mid-size tier reads like a concentration test: Hone raised a $60M seed at a $285M valuation (Benchmark) — a 4.75x markup on entry valuation, unusual at seed — while Klarent ($8M) and GUDEA ($7M) stayed conventional. Mega-round board unchanged: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B. Outside the tape, Serval raised $150M Series C at $3B (recent context) and Dulo, from Waymo pioneer Sebastian Thrun, reportedly raised a $130M seed (10/29, Dealroom). Bloomberg reports Situational Awareness is pitching investors on a Fluidstack fundraise — a pitch, not a closed round. Rakuten Capital's Saemin Ahn says Southeast Asia startups are getting 'a lot less oxygen' — a counterweight to the AI headline numbers.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | 1 | $16B |
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $870M |
| General Catalyst | 1 | $400M |
| Benchmark | 1 | $60M |
| Framework Ventures | 1 | $50M |
| Sequoia Capital | 1 | $30M |
| First In | 1 | $30M |
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Deal flow concentrates in healthcare services and lower-priced takeouts: edTech changing hands at lower prices, seven urgent-care deals premised on multi-revenue-stream and regional growth theses, Stryker-ZuriMED, and Eversana-Estima Scientific (announced). Fund formation continued: Phoenix Property Investors neared a final close on Fund VII; a Rhône spin-out hit a €650M first close for its second fund (WSJ); AP Ventures closed fund three at $300M for industrial and energy tech; Tanmiya Capital closed Fund II at $130M with a $37.5M EIB commitment. None of these fund totals is an investment in any startup on our tape.
LP-side evidence points to structural repositioning rather than appetite withdrawal: CalSTRS' CIO argues 'the old portfolio playbook is finished' (Top1000funds), a new study examines why public pensions piled into alternatives, and AFR flags private markets and infrastructure as the draw. Cautionary counterpoint: hedge funds are dumping bitcoin ETFs as the futures basis trade dries up (Startup Fortune) — a reminder that popular arbitrages can close fast. Fund closes this week: Phoenix Fund VII (near final), Rhône spin-out €650M first close, AP Ventures $300M, Tanmiya $130M.
Strategic M&A is active in AI and health tech. Harvey made another legal-AI acquisition, adding to a consolidation wave in that stack (10/30). Coveo bought Anglera, a Y Combinator-backed product-data startup, to help retailers sell to AI agents (Globe and Mail, 10/29) — agentic-commerce tuck-ins are becoming a category. Stryker acquired ZuriMED (Modern Healthcare, 10/30); Eversana, backed by Water Street and JLL Partners, announced an acquisition of London's Estima Scientific — announced, not confirmed closed. StorCentric took a flier on Retrospect backup. None of these carry disclosed prices in our evidence.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Snorkel AI | 43 → 64 | +21 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-29 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market remains heavily concentrated in AI and specialized biotech, with massive capital rounds (e.g., $1B raise by Instinct, $350M by Dren Bio) continuing despite significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of enterprise AI adoption and valuation multiples for unproven 'agent' startups.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 2 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — SpendRule, Mintive — 2,738 → 2,740. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +750% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +262% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 84 | High | +145% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1856% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +956% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +607% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +429% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +252% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
84 markdowns detected all-time · 19 flagged beforehand · 65 missed · hit rate 22.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flock Safety | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −10.7% | $8.4B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Agility Robotics | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −26.5% | $3.0B → $2.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Kr Space | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −73.8% | $6.8B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Posit | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −83.8% | $5.0B → $811M | ✗ Missed |
| KuCoin | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −50.0% | $20B → $10B | ✗ Missed |
| Replicate | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −96.1% | $9.0B → $350M | ✓ Flagged #59 · Elevated |
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
DeepSeek's $16B Series A led by China's Big Fund is 89% of this window's disclosed capital. For founders, the signal is that strategic/state investors now clear mega-rounds private VCs won't price — but expect diligence on strategic alignment, export-control exposure, and what a sovereign-led cap table means for your next US or European buyer.
Swish.ai raised $20M, then sold for $150K in insolvency; VerSe Innovation was marked to $576M, ~90% below peak; our ledger shows Kr Space cut -73.8% and Agility Robotics -26.5%. Paper valuations in hot AI rounds (TypeSafe at $7.5B, Cohere talks at $20B) are fine on the way up — but build the plan to survive being the next Swish, not just the next Cohere.
Canada's government committed up to $1.6B into Cohere's $7B fundraise at a $20.5B valuation, alongside Nvidia. The UK's £15bn defence finance taskforce and Big Fund activity point the same way. Founders raising in frontier AI or defence should model sovereign funds as lead candidates — and note the governance strings that typically follow.
Quiet tracked week with heavy single-deal concentration; watch whether Cohere's federal backing and Cyera's reported talks mark a new sovereign-AI pricing tier, and whether markdowns (OpenAI target cut, Kr Space -73.8%) spread. Coverage is thin: 2,573 of 2,699 companies unscored.