Seven tracked disclosed rounds totaling ~$1.05B in the 7-day window, down 59.8% from $2.62B across 45 rounds last week. The week is heavily single-deal dependent: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a reported $7.5B post-money is ~83% of all disclosed capital. Strip it out and the remaining six deals total roughly $183M, versus ~$1.96B last week ex-Comparables — a genuinely thin tape. AI took $956M across 3 rounds (+44.2%, all TypeSafe-driven); Robotics $50M (1 deal); Space $24M (-20%); Enterprise Software $23.2M (-91.1%). Energy, Fintech, AI Infrastructure and Semis all went to zero rounds. Tape covers tracked companies only, not the whole market.
Last 24h items: Millie forming joint clinics with El Camino Health; Infotech acquiring Bengaluru SaaS startup Zluri and launching a CIO Analytics platform; Marklo raising $5M for an agentic marketing platform (Forerunner-backed); Reflect Orbital booking two launches with Skyroot Aerospace; ITRI-Stanford renewing the TREE program for Taiwan startups in Silicon Valley. Separate last-24h funding items not yet in the tracked tape: Fission ($10M, tokenized fund liquidity), Confido Health ($12.5M, led by Z47), NEXFORM ($4.48M seed, robotics), Zaria ($5.2M seed, led by Lightspeed), Solvera (€5.62M pre-seed). Treat these as reported, pending disclosure into the tracked dataset.
Weekly tracked rounds fell to 7 (all disclosed) from 45 (43 disclosed) — a 59.8% capital decline. Concentration risk is the story: AI's +44.2% gain is entirely TypeSafe AI; ex-that deal, every other tracked sector declined or went flat. Zero-round sectors: Energy (was $600M), Fintech (was $362.5M), AI Infrastructure, Semiconductors. This is tracked-company scope, not the whole private market, so weekly swings overstate market direction; a 7-deal sample is thin evidence. Coverage: 2,453 eligible rounds, 0 missing weekly amounts, 5 missing weekly valuations this week — valuation disclosure remains the main gap.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 7 | 7 | $1.1B |
| Previous 7 days | 45 | 43 | $2.6B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -59.8%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 3 | 13 | $956M | +44.2% |
| Robotics | 1 | 0 | $50M | Not comparable |
| Space | 1 | 1 | $24M | -20.0% |
| Enterprise Software | 2 | 4 | $23M | -91.1% |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Fintech | 0 | 7 | — | -100.0% |
| AI Infrastructure | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Semiconductors | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
Outside the tracked tape, last-24h reporting: quantum startup Oratomic raised $475M at a $5.4B valuation; Ramp reportedly hit $60B after a $1.85B round; Anduril's tender offer reportedly values it at $90B with $1.3B capacity — tender values are secondary-market indications, not round pricing. Anthropic shares reportedly trading on Hyperliquid without direct share sales — a synthetic/derivative structure, not a valuation event per se. Counterweight evidence: Bloomberg reports daily private credit marks called an 'illusion' after an Apollo move. Reminder: reported post-money figures are point-in-time marks, not returns.
| Company / Round Date | Reported Post-Money | Prior Post-Money / Date | Mark Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hone 2026-10-09 | $285M | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| TypeSafe AI 2026-10-09 | $7.5B | $200M 2026-09-15 | +3650.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Seven tracked disclosed rounds totaling ~$1.05B in the 7-day window, down 59.8% from $2.62B across 45 rounds last week. The week is heavily single-deal dependent: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a reported $7.5B post-money is ~83% of all disclosed capital. Strip it out and the remaining six deals total roughly $183M, versus ~$1.96B last week ex-Comparables — a genuinely thin tape. AI took $956M across 3 rounds (+44.2%, all TypeSafe-driven); Robotics $50M (1 deal); Space $24M (-20%); Enterprise Software $23.2M (-91.1%). Energy, Fintech, AI Infrastructure and Semis all went to zero rounds. Tape covers tracked companies only, not the whole market.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Hone | Seed | $60M | $285M | Benchmark | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Kapta Space | Series A | $24M | — | Washington Harbour Partners | Space |
| 2026-10-09 | Klarent | Seed | $8M | — | Mosaic Ventures | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | Meticulous | Series A | $15M | — | Chemistry | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | TypeSafe AI | Series A | $870M | $7.5B | Andreessen Horowitz | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Ultra | Series A | $50M | — | Framework Ventures | Robotics |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Nauta Capital secured a €60M first close for Fund VI targeting European software and deeptech (Universal Quantum and NetBird are portfolio references). CDP Venture Capital invested in French deeptech fund Jolt Capital V. TERN launched a Refugee Venture Fund aimed at refugee-founded startups. DEPO Ventures (Czech) invested in Ukrainian drone/missile-detection startup Zvook. Sector concentration data point: Singapore startups captured 91% of Southeast Asia's venture funding per Singapore Business Review. Note: fund closes and LP commitments are fund-size news, not startup investment — deployment timing and check sizes are not disclosed in these items.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $870M |
| Benchmark | 1 | $60M |
| Framework Ventures | 1 | $50M |
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
| Washington Harbour Partners | 1 | $24M |
| Chemistry | 1 | $15M |
| Mosaic Ventures | 1 | $8M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
OrbiMed raised $3B across U.S., European and Asian healthcare investment funds (last 24h) — fund size, not deployment. WSJ profiles a new PE firm specializing in 'AI glow-ups' for portfolio companies — a strategy bet worth watching for AI premium inflation risk. ACG's PE Weekly M&A roundup (Oct 9-15) and Parnassus's Q3 growth-equity commentary are context reads. Sports-asset theme continues: Centrefield took PE investment, and LawInSport covers rising carve-outs/carve-ins in sports. None of these items disclose startup-stage exposure; healthcare-fund raises do not imply VC deal activity.
Allocator side last 24h: Michigan pension assigned $765M to alternatives and rebalanced (Alternatives Watch). M&G launched a £74M private credit LTAF. L&G and NTR's clean power transition fund hit a €330M first close. A US venture firm picked Doha for its first office outside the Bay Area (Semafor) — geographic LP/GP expansion signal. Canada's airport concessions raise a buy-old-vs-fund-new question for pension funds. The Investment Association outlined actions to scale retail access to private markets (IPE). Note: first closes and mandates are commitments, not invested capital.
Cohere signed an agreement to acquire AI cybersecurity startup AISLE, per Reuters and multiple outlets — announced as a signed deal to expand its European footprint; no terms disclosed and closing is not confirmed. Agilent Technologies agreed to acquire Proscia (digital pathology) per Modern Healthcare's deals tracker — announcement stage. Zocdoc made its first-ever acquisition, buying insurance startup Sohar Health (Dealroom, recent context). Humanly acquired CareerArc to link recruitment marketing with AI hiring (GeekWire, recent context). None of these disclose deal values; treat all as announced unless closing is separately confirmed.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2357 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Replicate | 67 → 58 | -9 |
| Prime Intellect | 62 → 54 | -8 |
| Applied Intuition | 73 → 69 | -4 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-14 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
Market activity reflects intense capital concentration in AI-enabled industrial and hardware sectors (Bedrock, Scimplify) alongside volatility-driven caution for late-stage public listings (AirTrunk). High interest in 'on-shoring' supply chain startups suggests a strategic shift in venture focus.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Scimplify — 2,699 → 2,700. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +732% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +257% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 82 | High | +139% | $2.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1716% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +880% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +556% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +391% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +334% | $2.5B | 61 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
78 markdowns detected all-time · 18 flagged beforehand · 60 missed · hit rate 23.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
| Applied Compute | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −56.7% | $3.0B → $1.3B | ✓ Flagged #32 · Elevated |
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
| Guild Education | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $4.4B → $3.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Harness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $5.5B → $4.7B | ✓ Flagged #60 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
TypeSafe AI's reported post-money moved from $200M (2026-09-15) to $7.5B in one month — a +3,650% change on an $870M Series A. That is either a genuine breakout or a mark based on thin comparable data. Founders benchmarking against it should note the figure is reported, valuation coverage in the dataset has 5 gaps this week, and headline post-moneys are not exit prices.
The Recursive's recent piece on a 'silent M&A wave' — where a sale beats raising — is echoed in this week's deal flow: Zocdoc's first-ever acquisition, Humanly–CareerArc, Cohere–AISLE, Agilent–Proscia. With the tracked tape down 59.8% and four sectors at zero rounds, buyers with cash are a live alternative to a flat or down round. If you have strategic interest, evaluate it against your markdown risk before the next raise, not after.
The markdown ledger shows 100 companies on watch, with recent cuts of -41.7% (Mistral AI) and -56.7% (Applied Compute), plus a -4.4% down round at Homeward. Meanwhile the Markdown Watch board flags Linktree, Replit and Kajabi at high risk vs public comps. The gap between raise headlines and internal marks is widening. Plan runway assuming your next round prices off the mark, not the press release — and expect 409A friction if your comps have de-rated.
Watch whether TypeSafe's $7.5B print pulls AI follow-ons forward or marks a late-cycle concentration top. With 4 sectors at zero rounds and weekly capital at a third of last week, the tape needs 2-3 more weeks of data before any trend call. Key triggers: closing confirmations on announced M&A, Ramp/Oratomic figures entering tracked disclosure, and whether private-credit mark criticism spreads to venture pricing.