12 disclosed deals, $299M total round sizes, on the 2026-10-06/07 tape. Largest: General Medicine $120M Series B (a16z, Healthcare); Stuut $53M Series B (Insight Partners, Fintech); Hadrian $40M Growth (Forgepoint Intl & SmartFin, Cybersecurity). Two undisclosed rounds incl. Desible.ai (Prime Venture Partners). Weekly tracked book: 25 rounds, 23 disclosed, $1.117B vs $10.46B prior week (-89.3%) — driven by AI collapsing from $8.58B to $72.4M (-99.2%) as last week's megadeals rolled off. Coverage thin: 2 rounds missing amounts, 22 missing valuations.
Manus raised $500M — its first round since China blocked Meta's acquisition; announced, valuation not stated in evidence. Oratomic (quantum) reportedly worth $5.4B post Series B per WSJ. Isomorphic Labs is seeking funding at ≥$40B — a raise-in-progress, not a closed round. Countervailing signals: Burry publicly calls Anthropic's valuation a bubble and flags bear-market indicators; Danish pension LPs keep cutting alternatives exposure; Gravity Well laid off most staff after losing funding. Sector tape says cooling even as headline raises inflate.
Tracked-book scope only (2,651 companies; 2,407 eligible rounds), not the whole private market. Weekly: 25 rounds vs 27 prior; $1.117B vs $10.46B (-89.3%). Sectors: AI 7 rounds/$72.4M (-99.2%); Cybersecurity 2/$50M (-83.6%); Healthcare 5/$185M (no prior-week base — change_pct null, not growth); Energy 1/$200M; Fintech 4/$298.5M (+171.4%); Enterprise Software +1643.3% off a $15M base — percentage noise, not a boom. Daily count zero as of the 13:30 UTC snapshot. Defense: zero this week after 1 last week.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 25 | 23 | $1.1B |
| Previous 7 days | 27 | 24 | $10B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -89.3%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fintech | 4 | 2 | $299M | +171.4% |
| Enterprise Software | 4 | 1 | $262M | +1643.3% |
| Energy | 1 | 0 | $200M | Not comparable |
| Healthcare | 5 | 0 | $185M | Not comparable |
| AI | 7 | 9 | $72M | -99.2% |
| Cybersecurity | 2 | 4 | $50M | -83.6% |
| Industrial Tech | 2 | 0 | $50M | Not comparable |
| Defense | 0 | 1 | — | Not comparable |
Reported post-money marks: Vinci $1.5B (Series B, $250M, Advent/Temasek/Xora); Valon $2.3B (Series D, $150M, Ribbit — no prior mark in data); RobCo $1.0B post secondary (partial employee liquidity + new investment) vs $500M on 2026-01-01 — a +100% step, but a secondary print is not a priced primary and partial liquidity terms can flatter marks. Outside the book: Oratomic $5.4B, Isomorphic Labs targeting ≥$40B. Burry's Anthropic-bubble call is the visible bear counterweight; treat seeking-at values as asks, not clears.
| Company / Round Date | Reported Post-Money | Prior Post-Money / Date | Mark Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinci 2026-10-06 | $1.5B | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| RobCo 2026-10-05 | $1.0B | $500M 2026-01-01 | +100.0% | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
| Valon 2026-10-05 | $2.3B | Unavailable | Not comparable | Tracked roster; source link unavailable |
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
12 disclosed deals, $299M total round sizes, on the 2026-10-06/07 tape. Largest: General Medicine $120M Series B (a16z, Healthcare); Stuut $53M Series B (Insight Partners, Fintech); Hadrian $40M Growth (Forgepoint Intl & SmartFin, Cybersecurity). Two undisclosed rounds incl. Desible.ai (Prime Venture Partners). Weekly tracked book: 25 rounds, 23 disclosed, $1.117B vs $10.46B prior week (-89.3%) — driven by AI collapsing from $8.58B to $72.4M (-99.2%) as last week's megadeals rolled off. Coverage thin: 2 rounds missing amounts, 22 missing valuations.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Comparables.ai | Seed | $6M | — | Pragmatech Venture Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-10-07 | Cori Clinical | Seed | $4M | — | Breega | Healthcare |
| 2026-10-07 | Desible.ai | Seed Plus | — | — | Prime Venture Partners | AI |
| 2026-10-07 | MintNeuro | Venture | $5M | — | Odyssey Ventures | Healthcare |
| 2026-10-07 | Netsec | Venture | $10M | — | Partech | Cybersecurity |
| 2026-10-07 | Siena | Series A | $17M | — | York IE | AI |
| 2026-10-07 | Stuut | Series B | $53M | — | Insight Partners | Fintech |
| 2026-10-07 | Wally | Series A | $25M | — | — | Healthcare |
| 2026-10-06 | Antseed | Token round | $2M | — | Spark Capital | AI |
| 2026-10-06 | Avarra | Series A | $17M | — | Duration Ventures | AI |
| 2026-10-06 | General Medicine | Series B | $120M | — | Andreessen Horowitz | Healthcare |
| 2026-10-06 | Hadrian (Offensive Security) | Growth | $40M | — | Forgepoint Capital International & SmartFin | Cybersecurity |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Stage mix skews early-to-mid: 3 Seed/Seed Plus, 4 Venture, 3 Series A, 2 Series B, 1 Growth on the displayed tape. Fintech led with $298.5M across 4 rounds (+171.4% w/w); Enterprise Software $261.5M on a tiny base. Lead counts are single-deal snapshots — a16z's $120M is the total round, not its check. Fund ecosystem: Groq's backer reportedly targeting a $10B megafund (WSJ); Endeavor Catalyst raised $320M; PSV Tech closed a €56M second fund for Nordic pre-seed. Regional Q3 prints: Seattle record-high, Houston $780M+, Miami ~$900M — all megadeal-tilted.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $120M |
| Insight Partners | 1 | $53M |
| Forgepoint Capital International & SmartFin | 1 | $40M |
| York IE | 1 | $17M |
| Duration Ventures | 1 | $17M |
| Partech | 1 | $10M |
| Pragmatech Venture Capital | 1 | $6M |
| Odyssey Ventures | 1 | $5M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
ACG's Oct 2–8 M&A roundup is the week's wrap but excerpt is empty — details unverified. Fundraises: SEVA closed $160M sophomore growth fund, oversubscribed in under a month; Sheridan Capital nearly doubled its flagship with a $1.1B hard-cap close and added a $245M healthcare IT fund. ICG Enterprise reported a 3.3% half-year return from multiple PE investments. Thematic: wealth-management revenue optimization named PE's next growth lever. Fund size ≠ deployed startup capital; none of these closes imply startup-stage checks.
Institutional closes last 24h: Conversant Capital $845M inaugural private investment fund (real-estate focused per source); Taurus Private Markets $301M oversubscribed PE fund; Sheridan's $1.1B flagship + $245M healthcare IT vehicle; SEVA $160M; PSV Tech €56M; Endeavor Catalyst $320M. LP-side caution persists: Danish pension firms continue cutting alternative allocations, and privatedebtinvestor signals a private-credit fundraising shift in Q3. LP appetite is concentrating in established managers — a mixed read for emerging GPs.
All announcements unless stated closed. Musk received FTC clearance to acquire Mesh Optical Technologies (SpaceX-alumni startup) — clearance reported, not deal economics. Nvidia-Groq's 'not a merger' arrangement faces a Delaware fiduciary-duty suit — legal overhang on quasi-M&A structures. Closed deals: M-KOPA acquired KilpiTek Oy for $8M (device locking, Africa fintech adjacency); Automation Anywhere agreed to acquire Boost.ai (conversational AI); Duetto acquired Flyr as it exits hotel pricing. The Recursive flags a 'silent M&A wave' — sales beating next rounds for down-round candidates.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2282 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| General Intuition | 65 → 61 | -4 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-08 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is characterized by a stark concentration of capital into AI infrastructure and specific vertical robotics, evidenced by large raises for Nous Research ($1.5B valuation) and Atomic Machines ($250M). There is significant uncertainty regarding enterprise AI adoption ROI, with firms like Microsoft reportedly cutting internal usage of third-party models, even as startups like Tab and Endeavor Catalyst continue to draw massive capital allocations.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Multiply Labs — 2,650 → 2,651. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 125 scored nightly, 2525 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +773% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +255% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 86 | High | +151% | $2.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1752% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +900% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +570% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +401% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +292% | $2.5B | 61 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
75 markdowns detected all-time · 16 flagged beforehand · 59 missed · hit rate 21.3%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
| Guild Education | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $4.4B → $3.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Harness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $5.5B → $4.7B | ✓ Flagged #60 · Elevated |
| OfBusiness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −20.0% | $5.0B → $4.0B | ✗ Missed |
| o9 Solutions | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −27.0% | $3.7B → $2.7B | ✗ Missed |
| Houzz | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −54.3% | $4.0B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
The -89.3% weekly drop is mostly last week's AI megadeals rolling off the 7-day window; this week's 25 rounds at smaller checks still cleared. If you're raising $5–50M, the mid-market tape remains open — Fintech, Healthcare and Enterprise Software all printed this week. Don't read the headline number as a market close.
Isomorphic Labs is seeking ≥$40B — a target, not a closed round. Manus's $500M and Oratomic's $5.4B did clear. Burry's Anthropic-bubble thesis and Danish LP retrenchment raise the odds that late-stage asks get haircut. Late-stage founders: anchor to public comps, and note 86/100 markdown scores on Replit/Linktree-type premium marks.
The Recursive's 'silent M&A wave' plus closed prints this week (M-KOPA/KilpiTek $8M, Automation Anywhere/Boost.ai, Duetto/Flyr) show acquirers active at modest sizes. If your next round prices flat-or-down versus a strategic buyer, model the sale seriously before the fundraise.
Tracked weekly capital reset to $1.1B after a megadeal-heavy week — expect volatility in the headline number while round count stays stable (~25/wk). Watch whether Isomorphic's $40B ask clears and whether Burry-style bear theses gain institutional traction; LP retrenchment in Denmark and private-credit shifts suggest late-stage repricing pressure into year-end.