Six tracked rounds totaling $249M disclosed in the last 7 days, down 96.3% from $6.77B across 28 rounds the prior week — a steep single-week drop, though the prior week included outsized energy deals ($4.04B) that skew the comparison. This week's tape: Rainmaker $100M Series B (Climate); Firecrawl $75M Series B led by Smash Capital (AI); Baselayer $35M Series A led by M13 (Fintech); Corridor $25M Seed led by Bain Capital Ventures (Insurtech); Atum $14M (Financial Software, stealth emergence); Feldera Series A led by Inovia Capital, amount undisclosed. Lead totals shown reflect full round sizes, not individual checks. Coverage gaps: 1 missing amount, 6 missing valuations among 2,271 eligible rounds.
Outside the tracked tape (recent news, treat separately): Island raised $400M at a $6.4B valuation with AI-driven security demand cited; OpenEvidence reportedly hit a $15B valuation in a new round — both are announcements/press reports, not tracked-book data. Ultraviolette Automotive raised €74M and plots a U.S. launch; also not in the tracked tape. Japan's Defense Ministry is launching a system to incorporate startup tech. SkyDrive won a ministry award at Japan Startup Awards 2026 — recognition, not funding. Treat reported valuations as press claims until filings confirm.
Two demand-side forecasts dominate coverage: AI infrastructure investment is projected to surge to $769B in 2026 (multiple outlets), with safety concerns mounting in parallel — a forecast, not committed capital; and space-economy investment reportedly hit a record $23B, with SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile cited as institutional magnets. Both figures come from secondary press and are not validated in our tracked tape, which showed only $249M this week. Gap between macro projections and weekly deal flow remains wide; single-week reads are noisy.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 6 | 5 | $249M |
| Previous 7 days | 28 | 27 | $6.8B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -96.3%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate | 1 | 0 | $100M | Not comparable |
| AI | 1 | 12 | $75M | -92.8% |
| Fintech | 1 | 3 | $35M | -56.8% |
| Insurtech | 1 | 0 | $25M | Not comparable |
| Financial Software | 1 | 0 | $14M | Not comparable |
| Database Software | 1 | 0 | — | Not comparable |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Cybersecurity | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
No tracked-book valuation events in the structured data this week (valuations array empty; 6 rounds missing valuations). Public-market evidence was thin and mostly noise: Meta near all-time highs, Blue Owl trading at a ~20% BDC discount, Pantheon's monthly NAV update. Markdown Watch remains the sharper signal: of 2,523 tracked companies, only 124 are scored. Top marks at risk: Linktree (86/100, +481% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +191%), Xendit (80/100, +1943%). Recent ledger: Anchorage Digital cut -28.6%, Etched -51.5%, Found -70%.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Six tracked rounds totaling $249M disclosed in the last 7 days, down 96.3% from $6.77B across 28 rounds the prior week — a steep single-week drop, though the prior week included outsized energy deals ($4.04B) that skew the comparison. This week's tape: Rainmaker $100M Series B (Climate); Firecrawl $75M Series B led by Smash Capital (AI); Baselayer $35M Series A led by M13 (Fintech); Corridor $25M Seed led by Bain Capital Ventures (Insurtech); Atum $14M (Financial Software, stealth emergence); Feldera Series A led by Inovia Capital, amount undisclosed. Lead totals shown reflect full round sizes, not individual checks. Coverage gaps: 1 missing amount, 6 missing valuations among 2,271 eligible rounds.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Atum | Undisclosed (stealth emergence) | $14M | — | — | Financial Software |
| 2026-09-22 | Baselayer | Series A | $35M | — | M13 | Fintech |
| 2026-09-22 | Firecrawl | Series B | $75M | — | Smash Capital | AI |
| 2026-09-21 | Corridor | Seed | $25M | — | Bain Capital Ventures | Insurtech |
| 2026-09-21 | Feldera | Series A | — | — | Inovia Capital | Database Software |
| 2026-09-21 | Rainmaker | Series B | $100M | — | — | Climate |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Leads were one-deal each on the displayed tape: Smash Capital ($75M), M13 ($35M), Bain Capital Ventures ($25M), Inovia (undisclosed) — round totals, not check sizes. Off-tape fund news: Connect Ventures closed $55M first close of Fund V; Agrobank launched a $6.1M Uzbekistan vehicle; Morocco launched a startup digital-investment fund. Counter-signal: EnterpriseAM reports UAE startups struggling to find lead investors for growth rounds. Liquidity angle: Venture Capital Journal reports Oura's IPO path implies a payday for Finnish VC Lifeline. VC commentary this cycle was mostly essays (India deep-tech, GP success factors) rather than deal data.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Smash Capital | 1 | $75M |
| M13 | 1 | $35M |
| Bain Capital Ventures | 1 | $25M |
| Inovia Capital | 1 | — |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
PE flow was services-led and small-ticket relative to VC headlines: Clifford Chance is advising Mehler Systems on its acquisition of Craig International Ballistics; Osborne Clarke advised Dalcour Maclaren on an MML Capital growth investment; Gibraltar Business Capital provided a credit facility supporting RS2 Healthcare Partners' investment in KMM Group. AMWatch frames Schroders' P+ mandate as evidence of growing Nordic LP demand for European PE. Coverage also included a Nigeria PE-buildout piece and Fidelity's Q2 dividend commentary — context, not transactions.
Capital formation headlines: NYC comptroller proposes a $5bn private-markets climate push — a proposal, not an allocation. Danish pension P+ backs Schroders with $230M for European PE, the concrete LP commitment of the cycle; fund size is not deployment. Inflexion invested in a French nail-care brand. Jelawang Capital appointed Howard Soh as CEO after a long vacancy — a governance event worth watching for Malaysian fund continuity. Underlying theme: LP appetite for European and climate sleeves is strengthening even as weekly venture deal flow thins.
Active mid-market and tuck-in M&A: Databricks acquired Seattle spreadsheet startup Row Zero to push enterprise spreadsheets onto its AI platform; Rohde & Schwarz bought two Dresden satellite deep-tech startups; Microchip's Hailo acquisition closed as edge-AI consolidation accelerates; Groundcover acquired Israeli startup Wand for a reported tens of millions (recent context). Reported, not confirmed: Qualcomm is said to be eyeing Tenstorrent — stock moved on the report, but no deal is agreed. Corporate buyers keep acquiring infrastructure-layer tools rather than apps.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2181 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Posit | 39 → 42 | +3 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-09-25 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market displays heavy concentration in defensive and biosecurity AI, with significant capital flowing to infrastructure (TEKEVER, Pilgrim, Island). A notable shift is occurring in public-private fund management (Powerlaw Corp) where high-profile private exits (SpaceX) are being leveraged to sustain dividends for public investors, signaling increased focus on liquidity realization as an alternative to IPO paths.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 2 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Pilgrim, Ando — 2,523 → 2,525. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 124 scored nightly, 2399 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +481% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +191% | $9.0B | 41 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1943% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +1003% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +639% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +453% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 7 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +227% | $3.0B | 54 mo ago |
| 8 | Pump | SaaS | 75 | High | +1550% | $1.5B | 28 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
60 markdowns detected all-time · 11 flagged beforehand · 49 missed · hit rate 18.3%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage Digital | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −28.6% | $4.2B → $3.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Etched | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −51.5% | $10B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Found | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −70.0% | $2.0B → $600M | ✗ Missed |
| Public | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −99.4% | $190B → $1.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Upgrade | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −30.8% | $7.3B → $5.0B | ✓ Flagged #64 · Moderate |
| Applied Intuition | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −60.0% | $15B → $6.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Axonius | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −61.5% | $2.6B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Digital Currency Group | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −80.0% | $10B → $2.0B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
The -96.3% weekly drop is largely a function of last week's $4B energy mega-deals rolling off, but the underlying signal holds: only 6 tracked rounds closed. If you're raising now, assume longer timelines, fewer competing term sheets, and price discipline. Lead investors are scarce at growth stage — the UAE lead-investor shortage is a global pattern, not regional.
Feldera's undisclosed Series A and Atum's stealth-emergence round show quiet raises persist. But with only 124 of 2,523 tracked companies scored on markdown risk, opacity cuts against you at the next round: the +481% to +1,943% premium flags on Linktree, Replit and Xendit show what happens when pricing runs ahead of verifiable comparables.
Databricks-Row Zero, Microchip-Hailo closing, and Rohde & Schwarz's satellite tuck-ins all point the same way: acquirers want infrastructure and tooling that slot into platforms. If your product is a layer rather than an app, strategic interest may exist even when the primary market is thin — build the integration surface before you need it.
One thin week doesn't make a drought, but $249M tracked with only one lead repeat and two undisclosed rounds suggests a lull, not a pause. Watch whether mega-round activity (Island, OpenEvidence off-tape) re-enters the tracked book, and whether LP formation news (P+, NYC climate) translates into deployment within two quarters.