Tracked disclosed rounds last 7 days: 5 deals, $174M — down 97.5% from the prior week's $6.8B across 29 rounds. Caveat: this covers 2,523 tracked companies, not the whole market, and a single week is noise, not regime change. The tape itself skews early: Bain Capital Ventures led Corridor's $25M seed (Insurtech), M13 led Baselayer's $35M Series A (Fintech), Inovia led Feldera's Series A (amount undisclosed), Atum emerged from stealth with $14M, and Rainmaker's $100M Series B accounted for over half the week's capital. Energy, Cybersecurity and AI all printed zero tracked rounds this week after sizeable prior-week totals.
Fresh in the last 24h but outside our tracked tape: Noetive raised $41M (WSJ), Cornelis Networks raised $205M, and Betterhood raised Rs 11.5 crore seed led by Sauce VC. On valuations: Island hit a $6.4B round valuation with CNBC citing AI-attack-driven spending; an unnamed Seattle space startup reached $1.6B. Skillmatics is reportedly in talks for $75M at $420M — talks, not a signed round. Bloomberg reports Modal and Baseten in funding talks. Treat all talks items as unconfirmed until terms print.
Sector breadth this week was narrow: Climate ($100M, Rainmaker), Fintech ($35M), Insurtech ($25M), Financial Software ($13.5M), Database Software (undisclosed). Prior week's heavyweights — Energy ($4.0B) and AI (12 rounds, $1.0B) — went silent. Contextual evidence supports underlying demand: global fintech investment reportedly topped $100B in H1, the strongest four-year momentum, driven by payments mega-deals. Mega-round board unchanged: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B — concentration at the top persists while small rounds stall.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 5 | 4 | $174M |
| Previous 7 days | 29 | 28 | $6.8B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -97.5%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate | 1 | 0 | $100M | Not comparable |
| Fintech | 1 | 3 | $35M | -56.8% |
| Insurtech | 1 | 0 | $25M | Not comparable |
| Financial Software | 1 | 0 | $14M | Not comparable |
| Database Software | 1 | 0 | — | Not comparable |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Cybersecurity | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| AI | 0 | 12 | — | -100.0% |
Our Markdown Watch flags 124 scored names; top overvaluation-risk readings: Linktree (86/100, +483% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +197%) and Xendit (80/100, +1943%). The ledger holds 100 on watch with fresh cuts: Anchorage Digital -28.6%, Etched -51.5%, Found -70%. 2,399 tracked companies remain unscored — treat scored names as a sample, not a census. Context pieces this week argue valuations running ahead of execution get repriced at the next round; the mark cuts are consistent with that.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Tracked disclosed rounds last 7 days: 5 deals, $174M — down 97.5% from the prior week's $6.8B across 29 rounds. Caveat: this covers 2,523 tracked companies, not the whole market, and a single week is noise, not regime change. The tape itself skews early: Bain Capital Ventures led Corridor's $25M seed (Insurtech), M13 led Baselayer's $35M Series A (Fintech), Inovia led Feldera's Series A (amount undisclosed), Atum emerged from stealth with $14M, and Rainmaker's $100M Series B accounted for over half the week's capital. Energy, Cybersecurity and AI all printed zero tracked rounds this week after sizeable prior-week totals.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Atum | Undisclosed (stealth emergence) | $14M | — | — | Financial Software |
| 2026-09-22 | Baselayer | Series A | $35M | — | M13 | Fintech |
| 2026-09-21 | Corridor | Seed | $25M | — | Bain Capital Ventures | Insurtech |
| 2026-09-21 | Feldera | Series A | — | — | Inovia Capital | Database Software |
| 2026-09-21 | Rainmaker | Series B | $100M | — | — | Climate |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund formation stayed active even as deal flow slowed: Bessemer closed $5.75B across BVP XIII and Century Fund III (announced, closed per report); Connect Ventures took a $55M first close toward an $80M Fund V; EIF committed €20M to Educapital's third fund; and Carnelian launched a Rs. 2,000 crore India mid-market PE vehicle. Corporate and non-traditional LPs are in motion too — Tesco invested in a food-innovation venture fund and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation launched a $100M venture fund. ARK tokenized its ARK Venture Fund with Securitize; distribution innovation, not new capital. Note: fund sizes are not startup deployments.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| M13 | 1 | $35M |
| Bain Capital Ventures | 1 | $25M |
| Inovia Capital | 1 | — |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
PE signals point both ways. Family offices plan to double down on stocks and PE despite inflation worries per a Citi survey; 'private credit steady as PE rebounds' headlines continued. But the week's marquee item is structural: Hamco plans to launch a Pan-Asia PE fund natively on-chain via Chainlink and Synthesys — an announcement, unproven at scale. Separately, Mother Jones reports the SEC wants to scrap a key anti-corruption rule targeting PE — a regulatory-relief story, not a capital story. Acumen invested $5M in Sun King's Zambia business; a UK PE-backed tech group eyes a £100m exit.
LP behavior is the quiet counterweight to the thin deal tape: Hawaii ERS is weighing more public equity as its risk strategy evolves — a shift away from private exposure at the margin — while Blackstone opened a private markets fund to non-US investors, widening the retail/institutional funnel. Bessemer's $5.75B close and Connect Ventures' $55M first close mean dry powder is arriving even as tracked deal counts collapse week-over-week. The gap between fund closing and deployment typically resolves with a lag; this week's -97.5% is a supply-side pause, not yet a demand verdict.
A quiet but real M&A day: UAE proptech-adjacent Huspy acquired Integra Finance alongside an $86M Italy expansion (terms of the acquisition itself not itemized); Groundcover acquired Israeli startup Wand for 'tens of millions' per Calcalist; security firm Upwind bought AI security startup Aegis and opened a cyber research lab; D.C. startup Statecraft made its first acquisition of a McLean geospatial firm. Buyer mix — growth-stage strategics acquiring small capabilities — is typical of thin funding weeks when sellers prefer tuck-ins to down rounds.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2181 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Biggest overnight changes in the graded company score — scores only move when disclosed data moves, and every repricing grades the score that was standing.
| Company | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Shippo | 43 → 57 | +14 |
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-09-24 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market landscape on September 23, 2026, is heavily dominated by AI-focused capital deployment, evidenced by Bessemer Venture Partners' new $5.75 billion allocation targeting seed to growth AI stages. There is clear concentration of investment in specialized enterprise AI and defense technology, with large raises from Ema and TEKEVER suggesting institutional appetite remains high for companies that demonstrate operational efficiency or strategic utility in high-demand sectors. Despite this, uncertainty lingers regarding valuation sustainability as secondary market pricing shifts and companies like Starcloud enter funding talks at aggressive premiums.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Ema — 2,523 → 2,524. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 124 scored nightly, 2399 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +483% | $1.3B | 54 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +197% | $9.0B | 41 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1943% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +1003% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +639% | $2.3B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +453% | $1.1B | 42 mo ago |
| 7 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +227% | $3.0B | 54 mo ago |
| 8 | Pump | SaaS | 75 | High | +1556% | $1.5B | 28 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
60 markdowns detected all-time · 11 flagged beforehand · 49 missed · hit rate 18.3%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage Digital | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −28.6% | $4.2B → $3.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Etched | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −51.5% | $10B → $5.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Found | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −70.0% | $2.0B → $600M | ✗ Missed |
| Public | 2026-09-21 | Mark cut −99.4% | $190B → $1.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Upgrade | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −30.8% | $7.3B → $5.0B | ✓ Flagged #64 · Moderate |
| Applied Intuition | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −60.0% | $15B → $6.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Axonius | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −61.5% | $2.6B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Digital Currency Group | 2026-09-14 | Mark cut −80.0% | $10B → $2.0B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Twelve AI rounds worth $1.0B last week; zero tracked this week. Mega-cap AI marks (OpenAI $122B) haven't moved, so capital hasn't left the category — but early-stage AI founders should expect investors to demand more than a model story. Multiple context pieces this week warn that valuations running ahead of execution get billed at the next round. Price realistically; the Etched (-51.5%) and Found (-70%) cuts are the cautionary ledger.
Groundcover–Wand, Upwind–Aegis and Huspy–Integra all printed within 24 hours. Strategics with balance sheets are buying capability cheaply while late-stage pricing stays contested. If you're a sub-$50M capability asset in security, fintech or infrastructure tooling, inbound interest may be more liquid than a Series B. Just note reported deal sizes ('tens of millions') are thin on terms — verify structure, not just headline.
Markdown Watch scores Xendit +1,943% and Linktree +483% against public comps — extreme gaps that rarely survive a repricing event. Founders raising now should build their comps deck defensively: pick public comparables, stress the multiple, and model a flat-or-down round. A $50M valuation guarantees nothing, as this week's startup-week panel warned. Raise on the model, not the market.
This week's -97.5% tracked-capital drop is likely timing noise around large prior-week Energy/AI rounds, not a freeze — Bessemer, Connect and Carnelian all closed or first-closed capital. Watch whether Island's $6.4B and the Modal/Baseten talks convert to prints; if they do, mega-and-growth appetite is intact while seed/A remains selective. Downside risk: mark cuts widening beyond the 100 on watch.