Only two tracked deals this week, $295M disclosed. Muon Space raised $250M Series C at $1.5B valuation led by Eclipse Capital — a space-based data infrastructure play and the sole mega-round. Frontieras took $45M in energy, terms undisclosed. That is the entire tape. Headlines reference additional raises — Emerald AI ($150M, unicorn), Stability AI ($76M Series B), Breedr (€23M), eComID ($17M), Ringg AI ($10M from Peak XV) — but none appear in tracked data, so terms are unconfirmed. Mega-round board unchanged: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B. Razor-thin week by any measure.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Only two tracked deals this week, $295M disclosed. Muon Space raised $250M Series C at $1.5B valuation led by Eclipse Capital — a space-based data infrastructure play and the sole mega-round. Frontieras took $45M in energy, terms undisclosed. That is the entire tape. Headlines reference additional raises — Emerald AI ($150M, unicorn), Stability AI ($76M Series B), Breedr (€23M), eComID ($17M), Ringg AI ($10M from Peak XV) — but none appear in tracked data, so terms are unconfirmed. Mega-round board unchanged: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B. Razor-thin week by any measure.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Muon Space | Series C | $250M | $1.5B | Eclipse Capital | Space |
| 2026-08-20 | Frontieras | Series Unknown | $45M | — | — | Energy |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Ventures Platform closed Pan-African Fund II at $84M, nearly double its first fund — a rare expansion in a market widely described as slumping. Eclipse Capital was the only tracked lead, deploying $250M into Muon Space. Memeburn reports Nvidia is NOT investing in Perplexity, pushing back on prior momentum narratives — a reminder that headline-driven deal speculation can reverse fast. No other fund closes or LP activity surfaced in this window.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| Eclipse Capital | 1 | $250M |
AWS acquired DuckDB per ducklabs.com — a significant pickup of the analytical query engine, terms undisclosed. CropX acquired SCiO (NIR spectroscopy) in its largest deal yet, targeting 2027 profitability; Calcalist frames it as a disappointing exit for SCiO's backers. Cribl purchased Radiant's AI SOC assets, not the full company — a structured asset deal. VRC bought AI startup AskTuring to expand its stack. Nvidia's non-investment in Perplexity registers as a deal that didn't happen.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 1931 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is heavily concentrated in AI, which accounted for roughly half of all global venture funding in 2025. Despite this high growth, there is significant uncertainty regarding exit valuations, with established firms capturing over 90% of U.S. VC fundraises year-to-date, making it increasingly difficult for mid-sized and emerging managers to compete.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,185.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 120 scored nightly, 2065 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +506% | $1.3B | 53 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +235% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1625% | $2.7B | 52 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +832% | $3.0B | 64 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +524% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +367% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | BetterUp | SaaS | 80 | High | +281% | $4.7B | 58 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +176% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
23 markdowns detected all-time · 4 flagged beforehand · 19 missed · hit rate 17.4%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splashtop | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Amperity | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Maven Clinic | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −20.6% | $1.7B → $1.4B | ✗ Missed |
| Form Energy | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −30.0% | $2.5B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Enovate Motors | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −42.6% | $3.7B → $2.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Fever | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −79.1% | $18B → $3.6B | ✗ Missed |
| Enter | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −99.4% | $190B → $1.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Wonder | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −16.2% | $9.0B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Two tracked deals all week. If you're raising, assume long diligence cycles and sparse comparables. Don't anchor on headline rounds you can't verify terms on — several cited this week aren't in tracked data.
Maven Clinic cut 20.6%; Splashtop and Amperity each down 9.1%. 100 companies on the watch ledger, 120 scored. If your last round priced in 2021-22 multiples and you haven't re-marked, expect that conversation with existing investors soon.
Cribl bought Radiant's AI SOC assets, not the company. If full acquisition isn't viable, structured asset sales are a real path. Build flexibility into founder agreements and IP ownership so this option stays open.
Expect continued thinness in tracked funding through Labor Day. The markdown board remains the more telling signal — 120 scored, 2065 unscored. Any company priced at peak 2021-22 multiples that hasn't re-marked is a candidate. Watch for asset-deal activity to pick up where full acquisitions stall.