Five tracked deals totaled $1.2B, but one carried the tape. Castelion's $800M Series C at a $13B valuation — led by JPMorganChase's Strategic Investment Group, a16z, and Carlyle — was the week's clear standout and pushed defense to the front. Muon Space followed with $250M Series C at $1.5B (Eclipse Capital), giving space a second strong showing. Rillet reached unicorn status: $100M Series C at $1.0B led by ICONIQ in fintech. Frontieras ($45M, energy) and Rundoo ($30M Series B, retail) rounded out a thin tracked set. Outside the tracked 2,185, funding headlines noted Starcloud's $250M Series A extension, Helcim's $53M Series C, Quintessent's $40M Series A, and Groq's $350M raise. Data is light this week — five tracked deals is below recent averages.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Five tracked deals totaled $1.2B, but one carried the tape. Castelion's $800M Series C at a $13B valuation — led by JPMorganChase's Strategic Investment Group, a16z, and Carlyle — was the week's clear standout and pushed defense to the front. Muon Space followed with $250M Series C at $1.5B (Eclipse Capital), giving space a second strong showing. Rillet reached unicorn status: $100M Series C at $1.0B led by ICONIQ in fintech. Frontieras ($45M, energy) and Rundoo ($30M Series B, retail) rounded out a thin tracked set. Outside the tracked 2,185, funding headlines noted Starcloud's $250M Series A extension, Helcim's $53M Series C, Quintessent's $40M Series A, and Groq's $350M raise. Data is light this week — five tracked deals is below recent averages.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Muon Space | Series C | $250M | $1.5B | Eclipse Capital | Space |
| 2026-08-20 | Frontieras | Series Unknown | $45M | — | — | Energy |
| 2026-08-19 | Castelion | Series C | $800M | $13B | JPMorganChase's Strategic Investment Group, Andreessen Horowitz & Carlyle | Defense |
| 2026-08-19 | Rundoo | Series B | $30M | — | — | Retail |
| 2026-08-18 | Rillet | Series C | $100M | $1.0B | ICONIQ | Fintech |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
New fund formation held at a measured pace. WovenEarth closed $155M for a clean-tech venture fund; Norway's RunwayVC reached a €40M first close on Fund II targeting industrial tech; Galileo Ventures announced a first close on Fund II with a space focus; and Azalea secured over $1B in new capital commitments in Asia. On regulation, the UK's FCA and HMT are consulting on AIFMD reset proposals that could reshape fund structuring for UK-based managers — worth tracking if you have LP exposure there. No new U.S. fund announcements appeared in this window.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorganChase's Strategic Investment Group, Andreessen Horowitz & Carlyle | 1 | $800M |
| Eclipse Capital | 1 | $250M |
| ICONIQ | 1 | $100M |
TCS agreed to acquire Porsche's IT unit MHP for €320M — the largest disclosed deal in the window. Crunchbase reports startup-on-startup M&A remains active, led by ultra-high-valuation unicorns using equity as currency. MioTech is eyeing a 2028 IPO following a China merger. A structural caution from Startup Fortune: vesting acceleration clauses are failing founders in down-round acquisitions — founders should review these provisions before they become relevant, not after.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 1931 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market displays intense concentration in AI infrastructure and space technology, with massive capital deployments (e.g., Muon Space, Alibaba AI funding) continuing despite broader economic caution. Significant uncertainty persists regarding the valuation sustainability of late-stage AI companies as they transition from high-growth phases to infrastructure-heavy operational requirements.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Infinity — 2,160 → 2,161. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 120 scored nightly, 2032 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +495% | $1.3B | 53 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +217% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1647% | $2.7B | 51 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +843% | $3.0B | 63 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +532% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +373% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | BetterUp | SaaS | 80 | High | +274% | $4.7B | 58 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +180% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
23 markdowns detected all-time · 4 flagged beforehand · 19 missed · hit rate 17.4%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splashtop | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Amperity | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −9.1% | $1.1B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Maven Clinic | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −20.6% | $1.7B → $1.4B | ✗ Missed |
| Form Energy | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −30.0% | $2.5B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Enovate Motors | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −42.6% | $3.7B → $2.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Fever | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −79.1% | $18B → $3.6B | ✗ Missed |
| Enter | 2026-08-24 | Mark cut −99.4% | $190B → $1.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Wonder | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −16.2% | $9.0B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Castelion's $800M at $13B — with JPMorgan, a16z, and Carlyle co-leading — signals defense is no longer niche. Three tier-one institutions co-leading is rare. Founders in dual-use or adjacent space tech should expect intensified competition for talent and capital through Q3.
100 companies on watch with real cuts this week: Maven Clinic -20.6%, Splashtop -9.1%, Amperity -9.1%. Shein's IPO marked a 57% valuation crash from peak. If your last round priced aggressively in 2024-25, stress-test a 15-25% markdown before your next board meeting.
Rillet's $100M at $1.0B (ICONIQ) and Rundoo's $30M Series B show non-AI, non-defense deals still get done. The bar is revenue quality and clean caps. Narrative alone no longer clears Series B; unit economics do.
Defense and space should continue dominating the tracked tape. Watch whether Castelion's $13B holds at mark — it sets a comp for the sector. Markdown activity will likely accelerate as 2021-22 vintage rounds face repricing. Shiprocket's 48% debut pop, erasing prior cuts, is the exception, not the rule. Price conservatively if raising now.