Two tracked deals this week, $500M disclosed. Higgsfield Series B $400M at $5.4B led by DST Global anchors the tape — an AI company clearing a $5B+ bar. Rillet Series C $100M at $1.0B led by ICONIQ gives fintech a second unicorn mark. Outside the tracked set, the headline deal is Etched: $700M Series D at $21B to scale inference chip production, doubling its prior valuation. Groq raised $350M at $3.5B — but that figure is nearly half its prior mark, making it the clearest markdown event of the cycle. Form Energy $750M Series G (T. Rowe Price) and Gravis Robotics $200M from SoftBank round out the week. Capital is concentrating hard around inference infrastructure; everything else is fighting for smaller checks.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Two tracked deals this week, $500M disclosed. Higgsfield Series B $400M at $5.4B led by DST Global anchors the tape — an AI company clearing a $5B+ bar. Rillet Series C $100M at $1.0B led by ICONIQ gives fintech a second unicorn mark. Outside the tracked set, the headline deal is Etched: $700M Series D at $21B to scale inference chip production, doubling its prior valuation. Groq raised $350M at $3.5B — but that figure is nearly half its prior mark, making it the clearest markdown event of the cycle. Form Energy $750M Series G (T. Rowe Price) and Gravis Robotics $200M from SoftBank round out the week. Capital is concentrating hard around inference infrastructure; everything else is fighting for smaller checks.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Valuation | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Rillet | Series C | $100M | $1.0B | ICONIQ | Fintech |
| 2026-08-17 | Higgsfield | Series B | $400M | $5.4B | DST Global | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
New fund closes signal where LP dollars are heading. QuantumLight (Storonsky) closed $500M Fund II targeting AI — founder-led capital with operator DNA. Reach Capital closed $265M Fund V for AI in learning, health, and work. Floating Point (Boston) raised $125M for Fund III. Apis & Heritage deploying a $250M fund for employee ownership models. Three Africa-to-AI managers collectively drew $1.1bn. London Technology Club's secondary fund hit first close. The pattern: LPs are backing AI-narrow vehicles and secondary liquidity — not broad generalist funds. New primary capital exists but is ring-fenced around AI thesis and secondaries.
| Lead Investor | Deals | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|
| DST Global | 1 | $400M |
| ICONIQ | 1 | $100M |
Munich Re acquiring At-Bay for $575M is the cleanest strategic exit of the week — incumbent insurer pulling cyber-insurtech in-house, a real revenue multiple, not an acquihire. Weave Communications going private via Francisco Partners confirms PE appetite for vertical SaaS at the right price. NBIS's Eigen acquisition drove an 11% stock pop — public-market validation of AI-infrastructure rollup logic. The OpenAI 'acquisition' of an Irish teen's idea was clarified as a joke — noise, not signal. UConn animal-health startup acquired (terms undisclosed). Strategic buyers are active; financial sponsors are selective; acquihire remains the default for sub-scale AI ventures.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 1902 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market landscape as of August 18, 2026, shows high concentration in AI-infrastructure and AI-application startups, with major institutional backing (notably Menlo Ventures) fueling billion-dollar valuations. While massive late-stage rounds for companies like Lovable and Wispr suggest continued optimism for AI-led growth, secondary indicators show significant uncertainty: startup fundraising volume has dropped 78% week-over-week, and some previous high-flyers like Groq are seeing valuation compression (falling from $6.9B to $3.5B), highlighting a potential correction in the broader AI sector.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,153.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 121 scored nightly, 2032 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +534% | $1.3B | 53 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +204% | $9.0B | 40 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1681% | $2.7B | 51 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +862% | $3.0B | 63 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +544% | $2.3B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +382% | $1.1B | 41 mo ago |
| 7 | BetterUp | SaaS | 80 | High | +299% | $4.7B | 58 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +185% | $3.0B | 53 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
16 markdowns detected all-time · 4 flagged beforehand · 12 missed · hit rate 25%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wonder | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −16.2% | $9.0B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Asimov | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −18.7% | $1.2B → $1.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Harvey | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −29.0% | $16B → $11B | ✗ Missed |
| Column | 2026-08-17 | Mark cut −41.7% | $10B → $6.0B | ✓ Flagged #41 · Elevated |
| Plaid | 2026-08-10 | Mark cut −23.8% | $8.0B → $6.1B | ✓ Flagged #26 · Elevated |
| Clay | 2026-08-10 | Mark cut −38.0% | $5.0B → $3.1B | ✗ Missed |
| Blockchain.com | 2026-08-10 | Mark cut −50.0% | $14B → $7.0B | ✗ Missed |
| Quantum Systems | 2026-08-10 | Mark cut −59.3% | $8.0B → $3.3B | ✓ Flagged #30 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Etched $700M at $21B, Groq $350M at $3.5B, Higgsfield $400M at $5.4B — the largest checks this cycle are flowing to inference hardware and compute. If your pitch isn't adjacent to inference, AI infrastructure, or a defensible vertical AI application, you're competing for a shrinking pool.
Groq raised at $3.5B, nearly half its prior mark. Harvey was cut 29%, Asimov 18.7%, Wonder 16.2%. Late-stage marks written in 2024-25 euphoria are being repriced. Model your next round at flat-to-down unless you have revenue and gross margin to justify the prior number.
Munich Re paid $575M for At-Bay; Francisco Partners took Weave private. Insurers and PE sponsors are paying real multiples for revenue-generating companies. If you're sub-scale in a consolidating category, a clean strategic sale is a better outcome than a flat round.
Inference capital is concentrating into fewer, larger checks at the top while mid-stage marks compress. Expect more markdown events next cycle as 2024-vintage valuations face revenue reality. Secondary funds hitting first close suggests early employees and angels are seeking liquidity before further compression. Founders raising now should price for survival, not trophy marks.