A Schedule 13D is the one moment an activist declares intent in public, on a date, in a filing. What follows is folklore — "Elliott makes money", "Icahn is past it" — and terminals sell the campaign list without the outcome. This ledger keeps the whole tape for 42 named activists: every campaign entered from its original 13D, the undisturbed price the day before, the reaction, the return at 1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months in excess of SPY on the same dates, a verdict at twelve months with the EDGAR receipt — and, computed from the graded rows, each activist's track record. The live book of fresh campaigns is the desk feed; the graded record is the product's credibility. Grades come only from prices; an AI never decides an outcome.
Campaigns under twelve months old — the desk feed. Newest filing first: an amendment means the activist did something (bought, sold, settled, sued). Undisturbed is the close before the original 13D; vs SPY is the return since then minus SPY over the same dates. Follow the activist's record on the right of each row before you follow the filing.
| Subject | Activist | 13D filed | Last filing | Undisturbed | Reaction | Return | vs SPY | 3-mo vs SPY | Activist's record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading the book… | |||||||||
Computed from the graded rows below — never asserted. An activist is labelled only after 3 graded campaigns: alpha generators earned it, and so did value destroyers. Click an activist for their full campaign ledger.
| Activist | Campaigns | Graded | Avg 12-mo vs SPY | Median | Worked / flat / failed | Avg reaction | Live | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading track records… | ||||||||
The distribution a desk sizes with: excess return over SPY at each horizon across every priced campaign. The mean is the headline; the quartiles are the risk.
| Horizon | Campaigns | Mean | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct | 90th pct | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading… | ||||||||
Every campaign that reached twelve months — the return from the undisturbed close, SPY over the same dates, the excess, the verdict and the EDGAR receipt. This record stays public at every tier.
| Subject | Activist | 13D filed | Undisturbed | Reaction | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo | Verdict | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading the record… | ||||||||||
A campaign opens only from an original Schedule 13D filed since 2018 by a named activist — never from an amendment, never a guessed start. One filer plus one subject is one campaign.
Entry is the close before the filing date — what a follower could not have had, and what the campaign has to beat. The reaction is the second session after the filing.
Every horizon subtracts SPY between exactly the same closes. Returns are split-adjusted price returns; a horizon grades only when the tape reached it.
+5 points over SPY or better worked; −5 or worse failed; between is flat. A tape that ended early (delisting — often the exit via acquisition, sometimes a bankruptcy) grades at its last print and says so.
The ledger does not know when the activist sold. The grades are the tape from the public declaration — the trade a follower could have put on.
Average and median twelve-month excess, worked / flat / failed counts — from the graded rows, labelled only past 3. Subjects with no ticker in EDGAR's index are counted as unpriced: the record leans toward names still listed, stated on the tin.
QL Activist Ledger is diagnostic research about public filings and prices, not investment advice. Campaign entries link their EDGAR filings; returns are arithmetic on split-adjusted closes and SPY over the same dates; twelve-month grades are a base rate, not a forecast for any campaign. The ledger does not know when an activist exited, and subjects that lost their listing are under-represented. Nothing here recommends buying, selling or holding any security.
Every Schedule 13D campaign by a named roster of activist investors graded against the tape: entry at the undisturbed close before the filing, the two-session reaction, split-adjusted returns at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months in excess of SPY over the same dates, a verdict at twelve months with the EDGAR filing as the receipt, and per-activist track records computed from the graded rows.
A campaign enters only from an original Schedule 13D, never an amendment. Entry is the close before the filing date. The twelve-month excess return over SPY decides the verdict: worked at +5 points or better, failed at −5 points or worse, flat between. A tape that ended before twelve months (a delisting) grades at its last print and says so. Exit is never inferred.
Labels are computed from graded campaigns, never asserted: an activist is called an alpha generator or a value destroyer only after three graded campaigns, from the average twelve-month excess return over SPY. Thinner records read as accruing.