QL Exit Odds grades the event over 12 months. This board grades the raise: a sealed monthly probability that each private company discloses a priced round inside 6 months, and — if it does — whether it prices down, flat, up or at a ≥2× step-up. Outcomes come from announced rounds and SEC Form D sales on the QL Raise Tape, so a round the press has not caught still grades. Baselines are stamped at seal time; sealed claims are never edited; the Brier scores and calibration tables are published win or lose.
| Company | Sector | P(round · 6m) | Down-round odds | Step-up band · if it raises | Last round | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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The board's own sealed probabilities summed by sector — a projection of its claims, never a record.
| Claimed | Calls | Realized |
|---|---|---|
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Monthly sealed probabilities, per priced private company, that a priced round is disclosed inside the next 6 months, plus the step-up band it prices at conditional on a round: down (<0.9×), flat, up, or a ≥2× step-up. Boards are graded automatically against the roster's announced rounds and SEC Form D sales on the QL Raise Tape, and Brier-scored in public.
A dated round on the company's roster record inside the window, or a Form D sale of at least $10M firmly linked to the company with a first-sale date inside the window. A listing or confirmed acquisition inside the window moots the call and is reported, not scored.
Exit Odds grades the 12-month event — IPO, acquisition, up round, down round, or quiet. Round Odds grades the raise over 6 months with a finer step-up band, and it uses Form D sales as both a driver and an outcome, so a round the press has not announced still counts.