QL Exit Odds grades the event over 12 months. This board grades the raise: a sealed monthly probability that each private company discloses a priced round inside 6 months, and — if it does — whether it prices down, flat, up or at a ≥2× step-up. Outcomes come from announced rounds and SEC Form D sales on the QL Raise Tape, so a round the press has not caught still grades. Baselines are stamped at seal time; sealed claims are never edited; the Brier scores and calibration tables are published win or lose.
| Company | Sector | P(round · 6m) | Down-round odds | Step-up band · if it raises | Last round | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Every sealed P(round · 6m) on this month's board, in 5-point buckets. The dashed line is the model's base rate; the solid line is the board mean.
The exact distribution of how many of this month's names raise inside 6 months if every sealed claim is calibrated and the calls are independent. No sampling — a full convolution of the board.
Each driver's average push on P(round), in log-odds, across the calls you can see. Right lifts the odds, left drags them.
Which band leads each call on the board (ring), and the board's mean band vector (bars).
The board's own sealed probabilities summed by sector — a projection of its claims, never a record.
| Claimed | Calls | Realized |
|---|---|---|
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Monthly sealed probabilities, per priced private company, that a priced round is disclosed inside the next 6 months, plus the step-up band it prices at conditional on a round: down (<0.9×), flat, up, or a ≥2× step-up. Boards are graded automatically against the roster's announced rounds and SEC Form D sales on the QL Raise Tape, and Brier-scored in public.
A dated round on the company's roster record inside the window, or a Form D sale of at least $10M firmly linked to the company with a first-sale date inside the window. A listing or confirmed acquisition inside the window moots the call and is reported, not scored.
Exit Odds grades the 12-month event — IPO, acquisition, up round, down round, or quiet. Round Odds grades the raise over 6 months with a finer step-up band, and it uses Form D sales as both a driver and an outcome, so a round the press has not announced still counts.