QL Distress Tape · Observed downside, with receipts
What actually went wrong in private markets — with the source attached.
Every database eventually marks a dead company dead. This tape carries the events while they matter: a confirmed shutdown, a bankruptcy filing, a disclosed down round, a recapitalization, a deep layoff, a fire-sale exit — each one dated, classified by how it is known (disclosed · reported), and carrying the URL that backs it. No event, no row. This surface never models — the modeled forward view lives at QL Exit Odds.
Loading the tape…
The tape
| Company | Status | Worst event | How known | New valuation | Haircut | Events | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
How this is built — and what it cannot tell you
- What counts as an event
- A confirmed shutdown or wind-down, a bankruptcy or assignment-for-creditors filing, a closed priced round below the prior round's valuation (the number is required — "raised at a lower valuation" without one is price-talk, not an event), a recapitalization, a workforce cut of at least 10% or 100 people, or a sale at or below the last known valuation. Rumors, "exploring options", and unclosed negotiations are not events.
- How each event is known
- disclosed — the company, a court or SEC filing, or an official statement said it. reported — a named major outlet reported it. There is no third class: distress has no marketplace aggregate, and an aggregator page is not a source. A company's status line comes from its most SEVERE event — a shutdown from the spring outranks a layoff from last week, because the shutdown is the state.
- Haircut vs anchor
- Haircut is pure arithmetic on the event's own numbers: the new valuation against the prior valuation the same source states — nothing is imputed. vs-anchor compares the event's valuation to the company's current roster mark; a missing anchor renders as no comparison, never as flat. Events implying a move outside 0.1×–10× of the anchor are flagged and excluded from aggregate medians — at that distance the likeliest explanation is a units mismatch, not a real repricing.
- What this tape is not
- Not a prediction, not a death watch, not investment advice, and not complete — it carries only events with a public source. A company with no rows is a company with no publicly known distress, which is most of them and says nothing about its health. For forward-graded odds of the next event, see QL Exit Odds; for the model's mark, see QL Private Marks; for observed secondary prices, see QL Secondary Tape.
- Rejections are counted, never hidden
- Every candidate event clears the same validation gate (date, kind-specific proof, source URL, sanity bands) whether it comes from the curated seed or a collector run. What fails is counted by reason on the payload — a source that starts failing shows up as numbers, not as a tape that quietly stops moving.