Tracked tape was nearly empty outside one deal: DeepSeek's $16B Series A led by China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund), dated 2026-10-23. Weekly total: 1 disclosed round, $16B, all Technology; prior week: 0 rounds, $0. Daily count: 0. That single transaction is 100% of the week's tracked capital, so the tape says little about broad market tempo. Coverage context: 2,453 eligible rounds, 0 missing weekly amounts, 1 missing weekly valuation. Mega-round board (reported post-marks, not new money this week): OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B — DeepSeek's $16B would place it alongside Waymo if the figure holds as a post-money.
Last-24h: Easol raised $30M and launched AI agents for festival promoters; Casap raised $56M for bank fraud prevention; Avante raised $30M for AI benefits agents; Live2.ai raised Rs 130 crore in a pre-Series B; QwikBuild raised $2.3M pre-seed led by Globalway. PhysicsWallah partnered with DPIIT to back 25,000 startups across Tier 2/3 cities — a support program, not a fund-size commitment to any single company. Enterprise Singapore launched scaling initiatives at SWITCH 2026. Firehawk Defense hit a $1.4B valuation with a $150M round.
Tracked-book trends cover disclosed rounds only, not the whole market. Weekly: 1 round, $16B, all Technology; previous week zero, so week-over-week change is undefined rather than positive — one deal does not make a trend. Underlying activity in the last 24h skews small ($2.3M–$56M) across fintech, event tech, defense and AI agents, with India visible in both funding (Live2.ai) and policy (pension overhaul discussion). Themes in adjacent coverage: defense valuations (Firehawk), memory-chip startup backing from former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger targeting EUV-free Z2RAM, and Bitcoin lending revival commentary from SVB.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 1 | 1 | $16B |
| Previous 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: Not comparable. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 1 | 0 | $16B | Not comparable |
Upwind raised a $400M Series C at a $3.8B valuation, reportedly more than doubling its prior mark with revenue claimed to have quadrupled in 2026. Physical Intelligence is reported — not confirmed — to be negotiating a new round at a potential $20B valuation, roughly double; treat as unverified negotiation, not a completed round. On the downside side of the ledger: VerSe Innovation was cut to $576M, nearly 90% below peak (recent context), and SoftBank-backed Oravel reportedly faces a lower valuation in its India IPO. Markdown watch tops: Linktree 86/100 (+714% vs public comps), Replit 86 (+243%), Kajabi 81 (+134%) — high markdown risk flags, not executed cuts.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Tracked tape was nearly empty outside one deal: DeepSeek's $16B Series A led by China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund), dated 2026-10-23. Weekly total: 1 disclosed round, $16B, all Technology; prior week: 0 rounds, $0. Daily count: 0. That single transaction is 100% of the week's tracked capital, so the tape says little about broad market tempo. Coverage context: 2,453 eligible rounds, 0 missing weekly amounts, 1 missing weekly valuation. Mega-round board (reported post-marks, not new money this week): OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B — DeepSeek's $16B would place it alongside Waymo if the figure holds as a post-money.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | DeepSeek | Series A | $16B | — | China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | Technology |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund closes dominated: DPI's Nclude Fund closed at over $112M for regional tech (announced last 24h); France's Aquiti closed a €60M fund targeting founders outside traditional hubs (recent context); SMU launched a US$10M startup ventures vehicle. Check sizes on the display were small: Serena Williams' firm led a $3M round in fashion startup Trace. The $16B DeepSeek round is the outlier that dwarfs everything else on the board — a single state-directed semiconductor bet, not a broad risk-asset signal.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| China's Big Fund (National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund) | 1 | $16B |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Deal flow: Hunter Point Capital provided strategic financing to Bow River Capital; Covalent Equity Partners invested in AML Analytics' growth; Orangewood formed THRM foodservice platform and acquired RSG as its first investment. Ridgeview's Pinewood Technologies acquisition is complete. Counter-signal: PE investment in Indian real estate fell 31% to $1.66B in the first nine months of 2026, a six-year low per the cited report. LP-side moves continue with Cook County pension raising its PE allocation.
Closes: Tanmiya Capital Ventures II held a $130M final close with MSMEDA joining; AP Ventures closed its third fund at €269M for early-stage industrial and energy tech; DPI's Nclude Fund closed above $112M. Policy is the bigger story: India is considering opening its $180B pension system to private markets (Bloomberg, last 24h) — under consideration, not decided. Cook County pension will tick up its PE allocation. Jon Moulton's column flags DC funds as 'a debacle waiting to happen' — opinion, worth noting as a dissenting LP view.
Active window. Intel is buying quantum-software startup Classiq for about $2.3B (recent context, Bloomberg). Ferring will acquire fertility startup Gameto in a deal worth up to $1.38B — 'up to' signals earnouts, not upfront cash. Valley National Bancorp will pay $340M for fintech Bluevine (announcement, not closed). Willow acquired Swehl and Momtech to expand its maternal-health platform; Anthropic bought a one-person startup; Oddball acquired Synaptic's Salesforce business for federal AI capability. Ridgeview Partners completed its acquisition of automotive software provider Pinewood Technologies Group — one of the few explicitly closed deals.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-27 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market displays significant capital concentration, evidenced by a record $10 billion fund raise in Texas and continued large-scale inflows to AI-focused entities. Despite the high-dollar activity, there is growing uncertainty as evidenced by economist warnings regarding 'fuzzy and clunky' AI investments and localized sector-specific layoffs.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,738.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +714% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +243% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 81 | High | +134% | $2.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1884% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +971% | $3.0B | 66 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +617% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +437% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +276% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
84 markdowns detected all-time · 19 flagged beforehand · 65 missed · hit rate 22.6%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flock Safety | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −10.7% | $8.4B → $7.5B | ✗ Missed |
| Agility Robotics | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −26.5% | $3.0B → $2.2B | ✗ Missed |
| Kr Space | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −73.8% | $6.8B → $1.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Posit | 2026-10-26 | Mark cut −83.8% | $5.0B → $811M | ✗ Missed |
| KuCoin | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −50.0% | $20B → $10B | ✗ Missed |
| Replicate | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −96.1% | $9.0B → $350M | ✓ Flagged #59 · Elevated |
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
The week's only tracked round — DeepSeek at $16B — was led by China's Big Fund, a state vehicle. Don't read it as private VC appetite returning; it's strategic industrial policy. If you're fundraising in AI infrastructure, sovereign and state-linked capital is where the big checks are, while commercial rounds in the same window topped out around $56M.
126 of 2,699 tracked companies are scored; the watch board flags Linktree and Replit at 86/100 with marks 243–714% above public comps. Recent executed cuts hit hard where they landed: Kr Space -73.8%, Agility Robotics -26.5%, Flock Safety -10.7%. VerSe's ~90%-below-peak cut shows the endpoint. If your last round predates the AI repricing, model a down scenario now.
This window's M&A — Anthropic's one-person startup buy, Oddball taking Synaptic's Salesforce business for federal AI, Intel paying ~$2.3B for Classiq's quantum compiler — is talent-and-tech tuck-in behavior. For founders, that means a small team with a scarce capability is a viable exit even without revenue scale, especially in defense, quantum and federal AI.
A one-deal week tells you more about who has capital than about market health: state-directed semiconductor money at $16B, modest commercial rounds under $60M, active PE exits, and persistent markdowns on late-stage consumer/developer names. Watch India's pension decision and whether Physical Intelligence's reported $20B round confirms.