12 tracked deals, $1.6B disclosed in the freshest dated window (rounds dated Oct 8–12; today's edition is Oct 25, so this is a quiet window, not a 24-hour tape). Concentration is extreme: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a $7.5B valuation (a16z-led) and Atlas Atomics' $400M Series A at $1.9B (General Catalyst) account for ~79% of disclosed dollars. Seed checks ranged $7M–$60M, with Hone's $60M seed at a $285M valuation the outlier. Most-active lead counts here reflect one deal each for a16z, General Catalyst, Benchmark, Framework, Sequoia, First In, ADATA and Luminous — total round sizes, not individual check sizes.
Stablecoin infrastructure keeps building: Western Union will let remittance recipients get paid in its own stablecoin, and Mastercard launched stablecoin-payment screening security. Space policy: ISRO plans four functional launch pads by 2029. Startup policy news from Ladakh (₹100 crore policy aimed at 1,000 startups) and Nigeria's Renewed Hope Startup Hub are government programs, not funding rounds. These are last-24h items; treat program targets as stated ambitions.
European pension funds are increasing VC allocations amid an EU policy push (IPE) — a structural demand signal. Counterweights: TechCrunch's running 'AI graveyard' list of failed projects and startups, and concentration risk visible in this week's tape (two deals ≈ 79% of dollars). Regional color: Saudi VC at $1.7B, Irish startups at a record 21,921 with IT up 54%, and Korean funds backing four overseas deals in one week. Trend totals cover tracked companies, not the whole market.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 0 | 0 | — |
| Previous 7 days | 1 | 1 | $26M |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -100.0%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
OpenAI reportedly cut $150B from its valuation target (recent context) — the most significant private-mark repricing signal in the file, though a target cut is not a completed round. Apex (satellites) is in funding talks at $4B per Bloomberg; a US-Israeli browser startup is valued at $6.4B. Blacksmith raised $66M at a $1B valuation. Carta partnered with NewView Capital to expand startup employee share sales — secondary liquidity plumbing. Valuation changes are not investment returns; announcements are not closings.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
12 tracked deals, $1.6B disclosed in the freshest dated window (rounds dated Oct 8–12; today's edition is Oct 25, so this is a quiet window, not a 24-hour tape). Concentration is extreme: TypeSafe AI's $870M Series A at a $7.5B valuation (a16z-led) and Atlas Atomics' $400M Series A at $1.9B (General Catalyst) account for ~79% of disclosed dollars. Seed checks ranged $7M–$60M, with Hone's $60M seed at a $285M valuation the outlier. Most-active lead counts here reflect one deal each for a16z, General Catalyst, Benchmark, Framework, Sequoia, First In, ADATA and Luminous — total round sizes, not individual check sizes.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Hone | Seed | $60M | $285M | Benchmark | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Kapta Space | Series A | $24M | — | Washington Harbour Partners | Space |
| 2026-10-09 | Klarent | Seed | $8M | — | Mosaic Ventures | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | Meticulous | Series A | $15M | — | Chemistry | Enterprise Software |
| 2026-10-09 | TypeSafe AI | Series A | $870M | $7.5B | Andreessen Horowitz | AI |
| 2026-10-09 | Ultra | Series A | $50M | — | Framework Ventures | Robotics |
| 2026-10-08 | Atlas Atomics | Series A | $400M | $1.9B | General Catalyst | Energy |
| 2026-10-08 | Catalyst | Seed | $30M | — | Sequoia Capital | Fintech |
| 2026-10-08 | Fortastra | Series A | $30M | — | First In | Space |
| 2026-10-08 | GUDEA | Seed | $7M | — | Mudita Venture Partners, Collide Capital | AI |
| 2026-10-08 | KONST | Series B | $30M | — | ADATA Technology | AI Infrastructure |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Robinhood launched a fund giving retail investors access to private companies — announced, distribution-expanding, worth watching for secondary-demand effects. Tenstorrent's $1.5B round reportedly equaled 85.1% of crypto-venture funding tracked in that period, per The Cryptonomist — a sign of single-deal skew in category totals. Saudi VC investment reportedly jumped to $1.7B. Downside context: a VC sim/game post about LPs wanting money back is commentary, but it tracks real LP tension also visible in Accel IX LP coverage. Fund sizes and category totals are not startup investments.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Andreessen Horowitz | 1 | $870M |
| General Catalyst | 1 | $400M |
| Benchmark | 1 | $60M |
| Framework Ventures | 1 | $50M |
| Sequoia Capital | 1 | $30M |
| First In | 1 | $30M |
| ADATA Technology | 1 | $30M |
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
PEI reports climate-related fundraising 'feeling a chill' — a demand-side headwind for one of the sector's flagship themes, worth weighing against Blackstone's $8.7B energy-transition fund close (recent context). Growing interest in tender offers to win talent battles points to continued secondary liquidity pressure. Confirmed deals: Inflexion acquiring Primed Group (single-use medical consumables) from Paragon Partners; Battery Ventures' ORTEC adding TOBA HR Solutions. Boomi's Elementary Data acquisition also crosses the PE/VC line. Sports PE scale challenges flagged by Sportico.
Blackstone closed an $8.7B energy-transition fund and put $108M into Peak Energy — fund size is not startup investment, but the deployment intent matters for energy rounds like Atlas Atomics'. Accel IX LP feedback is reportedly positive; Princeton Equity raised a $1.3B Fund III (real estate vehicle, Dallas). Egypt targets $5B in VC for 5,000 startups — a policy target, not committed capital. IMCO's PE program 'still a lot to be done.' Anthropic IPO coverage is circulating (TradingKey) — an IPO is not announced as filed here; treat as speculation.
SpaceX is reportedly nearing a $60B acquisition of Cursor (AI coding startup), per Stocktwits — reported, not confirmed; treat as announcement-level. Other deals: Zocdoc's first acquisition in ~20 years (an insurance checker), Rivian bought a synthetic-data startup for autonomy work, Boomi acquired Elementary Data extending its AI push, and Israeli AI startup Vizby sold in a multimillion-shekel deal (also linked to Swap Commerce). None of the price tags except the Cursor report are disclosed. Med-tech investing pain noted by PEI as context for health M&A.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2376 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-24 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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Weekend — payload available; weekday auto-DM is Mon–Fri 8:00 AM PT.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market displays intense concentration in AI infrastructure and applications, evidenced by mega-rounds like Panthalassa ($2B valuation) and the massive capital inflow into AI-linked hardware and data center sectors. There is significant uncertainty regarding off-balance-sheet commitments by Big Tech, with $3.6 trillion estimated in long-term AI-related obligations, while venture firms are concurrently tightening focus on specific regions (India) and sub-sectors (World Models, Medical AI) to maintain returns.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,718.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +690% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +257% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1681% | $2.7B | 54 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +862% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +544% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +382% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 7 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +322% | $2.5B | 62 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +185% | $3.0B | 55 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
80 markdowns detected all-time · 19 flagged beforehand · 61 missed · hit rate 23.8%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuCoin | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −50.0% | $20B → $10B | ✗ Missed |
| Replicate | 2026-10-19 | Mark cut −96.1% | $9.0B → $350M | ✓ Flagged #59 · Elevated |
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
| Applied Compute | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −56.7% | $3.0B → $1.3B | ✓ Flagged #32 · Elevated |
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
Two deals — TypeSafe AI ($870M at $7.5B) and Atlas Atomics ($400M at $1.9B) — are ~79% of this week's $1.6B. Strip them out and the median round is small Series A/seed money. Don't benchmark your raise against mega-round headlines; the visible market for normal-stage rounds is thinner than the aggregate suggests.
A target cut is not a down round, but it resets the reference point every AI founder carries into a pitch. Meanwhile the Markdown Watch flags Linktree and Replit at 86/100 (+690% and +257% vs public comps) and Xendit at +1681%. If the largest private AI name is trimming expectations, anchor your narrative to revenue, not sector multiples.
PEI reports growing tender-offer interest driven by talent battles, and Carta has partnered with NewView Capital to expand startup employee share sales. Secondary programs are shifting from retention crisis-response to standard compensation design. Founders should decide their liquidity policy before a competing offer forces one.
Quiet window with heavy single-deal skew: two AI/energy mega-rounds carry the tape while base-level activity is thin. Watch whether the OpenAI target cut and climate-fundraising chill translate into broader markdowns (100 names already on watch), and whether pension-driven European allocations and tender-offer liquidity offset LP caution.