Tracked disclosed funding collapsed to a single round this window: Ambi, a Pre-Series A, $26M, led by Luminous Ventures (AI), dated 2026-10-12. Weekly capital fell 99.3% versus the prior week ($26M vs $3.65B across 51 rounds), and every other tracked sector posted zero rounds, including Enterprise Software, Fintech and Energy. Caveat before reading this as a market signal: one tracked deal is a thin sample and likely reflects disclosure lag as much as activity — 2,453 eligible rounds sit in the book and only one weekly valuation is missing, so the machine is running; deal flow simply did not surface. Mega-round board tops: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B — displayed marks, not new cash in. Coverage is tracked companies only, not the whole private market.
Revolut reportedly reached a $121.2B valuation as IPO talk turned serious; a separate report describes OpenAI on the eve of an IPO, with 600 employees cashing out $6.6B and a valuation up 70% in a year. Both are reports, not filings. Binance.US is eyeing a $1B valuation in a new round against Coinbase and Kraken — targeting only. Product/market items: Mastercard and BVNK launched a platform blending cash and stablecoins; Europe's bank stablecoin coverage continues; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recalled the TSMC partnership origin; Elizabeth Holmes' partners' blood-test startup drew 'it's real' coverage.
Tracked-book trends: 1 round, $26M this week vs 51 rounds and $3.65B last week (-99.3%); AI was the only sector with activity (1 round, $26M, -98.4% in capital). Zero rounds elsewhere is a disclosure artifact to verify, not proof of a freeze. Feed context: AI's 82.7% share of US VC dollars; India VC flat at $10.9B in 2026 so far; MENA mega-rounds sustaining a Saudi-led quarterly rebound; Australia startups at a $5.4B record with coding going offshore; Taiwan moving to criminalize AI chip smuggling to China. Tracked totals are not market totals.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 1 | 1 | $26M |
| Previous 7 days | 51 | 49 | $3.6B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -99.3%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 1 | 15 | $26M | -98.4% |
| Space | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Enterprise Software | 0 | 6 | — | -100.0% |
| Robotics | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Fintech | 0 | 7 | — | -100.0% |
| AI Infrastructure | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Semiconductors | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
No tracked valuation events this week — the valuations array is empty, so all valuation color is feed-level. Upside reports: Revolut at $121.2B with IPO talk serious; OpenAI reportedly up 70% in a year with a $6.6B employee cash-out ahead of a possible IPO; Anduril profiled at $90B; Binance.US targeting $1B in a new round (target, not closed). Downside from the markdown ledger: Mistral AI -41.7% mark cut, Applied Compute -56.7%, Homeward down round -4.4%. Marks are not returns, and reported marks are not verified term sheets.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
Tracked disclosed funding collapsed to a single round this window: Ambi, a Pre-Series A, $26M, led by Luminous Ventures (AI), dated 2026-10-12. Weekly capital fell 99.3% versus the prior week ($26M vs $3.65B across 51 rounds), and every other tracked sector posted zero rounds, including Enterprise Software, Fintech and Energy. Caveat before reading this as a market signal: one tracked deal is a thin sample and likely reflects disclosure lag as much as activity — 2,453 eligible rounds sit in the book and only one weekly valuation is missing, so the machine is running; deal flow simply did not surface. Mega-round board tops: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B — displayed marks, not new cash in. Coverage is tracked companies only, not the whole private market.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Feed evidence: a report that AI startups took 82.7% of US venture dollars; Chamath Palihapitiya flagging a 'revenue quality problem' in AI and VC overdependence, while crypto traders reportedly see low crash risk. Regional reads: Oregon VC down to $640.9M through three quarters; Ukraine's WildField Ventures planning up to $15M for defense startups; Axios cites $50M for German VPPs and $45M for Swedish materials discovery plus new partners at CIV and Overture. Note the concentration stat covers reported dollars, not deal count — a few mega-rounds can dominate it. Feed items sit outside the tracked tape; treat unconfirmed plans as plans.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Berkshire Hathaway is deepening its unusual bet on software roll-up firm Bending Spoons, per Fortune and The Tech Buzz — backing for its acquisition strategy, reported rather than a confirmed new commitment. Varonis' $6.3B sale anchors the cybersecurity exit conversation, with CTech framing the risks of growing old as a private cybersecurity company. Axios flags a suitor for Decart, challengers at Big Yellow Group, and a $100B fund. Main Street-style lending via MAIN continues to drive dividend increases (Seeking Alpha). Consumer PE even reached Los Tacos No. 1. Coverage here is headline-level; deal terms are thin.
Fund formation and deployment: OrbiMed raised $3B across two new healthcare investment funds (reported). Aspire11 deployed its first €100M, citing technology companies staying private longer. Sovereign-fund machinery: Syria named a chairman for its sovereign wealth fund. Policy pressure: a Business Times op-ed argues the SEC should protect investors, not private funds; Intereconomics lays out six constraints on European VC supply and a reform agenda. Connect Money reports non-listed closed-end funds at $279B as credit redemptions climb. Fund sizes are committed capital, not startup investment — do not read OrbiMed's $3B as near-term deployment.
Deal flow was the most active signal this week. Reports: SpaceX reportedly nears a $60B acquisition of Cursor (reported, not confirmed); AMD buying Fei-Fei Li's World Labs for $8.2B per Startup Fortune. Announced: Intuit to acquire AI fintech Sequence for $200M to automate revenue management. Smaller path: a 25-year-old Israeli founder sold a stealth AI startup for up to $35M with no outside capital raised. Overlap with PE: an Israeli company sold for $6.3B (CTech ties this to Varonis). TradingView's weekly deals list spans International Paper, IonQ and Bumble. None of the reported figures should be treated as closed until confirmed.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2357 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-17 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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Weekend — payload available; weekday auto-DM is Mon–Fri 8:00 AM PT.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
Private market activity remains heavily concentrated in AI-adjacent sectors, evidenced by major capital injections into specialized hardware and data infrastructure. High interest rates, signaled by CoreWeave bond yields exceeding 15% and a trend of consolidation and layoffs in capital-intensive fusion startups, point to significant market uncertainty and a flight toward quality among investors.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 1 company to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Machxin Technology — 2,699 → 2,700. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +716% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +289% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 81 | High | +135% | $2.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1692% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +868% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +548% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +385% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +309% | $2.5B | 61 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
78 markdowns detected all-time · 18 flagged beforehand · 60 missed · hit rate 23.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
| Applied Compute | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −56.7% | $3.0B → $1.3B | ✓ Flagged #32 · Elevated |
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
| Guild Education | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $4.4B → $3.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Harness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $5.5B → $4.7B | ✓ Flagged #60 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
A reported 82.7% of US venture dollars going to AI means abundant capital for AI-adjacent startups and materially thinner pools for everything else. If you are AI, expect crowded rounds and fast comps; if you are not, assume longer raises and price discipline. Chamath Palihapitiya's 'revenue quality' warning is a useful stress test: buyers and later-stage investors are increasingly discounting AI revenue that is cyclical, subsidized or pilot-stage.
This week's ledger shows Mistral AI marked down 41.7%, Applied Compute 56.7%, and Homeward taking a down round of 4.4%. Secondary marks often move ahead of primary pricing, so your next priced round may clear below your last 409A narrative. Model a flat and a down scenario now, and watch the Markdown Watch board — Linktree, Replit and Kajabi all score High at +135% to +716% vs public comps.
With only one tracked round this week, M&A is doing the liquidity work: AMD reportedly buying World Labs for $8.2B, Intuit acquiring Sequence for $200M, a stealth Israeli AI startup exiting for up to $35M with no outside capital. Trade sales remain a real path when primary fundraising stalls. Keep data room hygiene and strategic-acquirer mapping current even if you are not raising.
Watch for confirmation on the reported SpaceX–Cursor ($60B) and AMD–World Labs ($8.2B) deals, Revolut IPO signals, and whether the one-round week was lag or a genuine pause. Mistral and Applied Compute mark cuts suggest secondary repricing continues; expect more markdown ledger entries before year-end.