The tracked book logged just 1 disclosed round over the window: Ambi's $26M Pre-Series A, led by Luminous Ventures, the only active sector (AI). That is a -99.3% weekly capital change against the prior week's 51 rounds and $3.65B, and -98.4% within AI itself ($1.59B prior). Read with care: a one-deal tape this extreme more likely reflects disclosure lag or tracking-cycle timing than a genuine halt in funding — prior weeks were near-normal volume. Coverage quality was high (2,453 eligible rounds, zero missing weekly amounts, one missing valuation), so the gap is in observed deals, not data hygiene. Scope caveat applies throughout: these totals cover 2,699 tracked companies, not the whole private market. Outside the tracked tape, press reported larger rounds this week, including Modal's $750M Series D and RapidCanvas's $29M Series B — evidence deal flow continued even as the tracked count went quiet.
Replit, last 24h via Tech in Asia, ended its work with Anthropic — notable because Replit also sits at the top of the Markdown Watch board (86/100, flagged +289% vs public comps). Disney reportedly spending $180M on Character.AI staff after layoffs underscores how talent, not equity rounds, is moving AI capital. Bolt Graphics is seeking $100M to challenge Nvidia and AMD in GPUs while sidestepping the AI battlefield. Ex-Dyson India MD Ankit Jain launched appliances startup Foundry; Elorian launched its Glimpse visual reasoning model. None of these are funding events, and only Replit sits in the tracked book.
Headline tension this week: Korean and Turkish press report global space-startup funding at an all-time high and $70M in early-stage SpaceTech deals, while the tracked book logged zero Space rounds against $54M the prior week — a reminder that press 'market' claims and tracked-disclosed rounds measure different things. AI remains the only tracked sector with activity ($26M). Coverage of these trends is thin on primary disclosure; treat aggregate figures as directional. CryptoRank's leaderboards on likely 2026 round-leaders are editorial, not data.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 1 | 1 | $26M |
| Previous 7 days | 51 | 49 | $3.6B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -99.3%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 1 | 15 | $26M | -98.4% |
| Space | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Enterprise Software | 0 | 6 | — | -100.0% |
| Robotics | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Fintech | 0 | 7 | — | -100.0% |
| AI Infrastructure | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Semiconductors | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
No new valuation marks entered the tracked book this week (valuations array empty; one round missing valuation). Markdown Watch remains the live signal: Linktree (86/100, +716% vs public comps), Replit (86/100, +289%), Kajabi (81/100, +135%); 126 companies scored of 2,699 — coverage is thin. Recent ledger events: Mistral AI mark cut -41.7%, Applied Compute -56.7%, Homeward down round -4.4%. Mega-round marks: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B. Elsewhere, Jio's IPO valuation was cut to ₹11 lakh crore pre-listing, and Harvard's endowment cites a 27.1% annual return partly on its SpaceX bet — a past return, not a current mark.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
The tracked book logged just 1 disclosed round over the window: Ambi's $26M Pre-Series A, led by Luminous Ventures, the only active sector (AI). That is a -99.3% weekly capital change against the prior week's 51 rounds and $3.65B, and -98.4% within AI itself ($1.59B prior). Read with care: a one-deal tape this extreme more likely reflects disclosure lag or tracking-cycle timing than a genuine halt in funding — prior weeks were near-normal volume. Coverage quality was high (2,453 eligible rounds, zero missing weekly amounts, one missing valuation), so the gap is in observed deals, not data hygiene. Scope caveat applies throughout: these totals cover 2,699 tracked companies, not the whole private market. Outside the tracked tape, press reported larger rounds this week, including Modal's $750M Series D and RapidCanvas's $29M Series B — evidence deal flow continued even as the tracked count went quiet.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund formation stayed active even as round count collapsed. Pear VC closed its fifth fund at $333M and promoted three partners (HedgeCo, last 24h). Axios reports new partners at CIV and Overture, plus $50M for German VPPs and $45M for Swedish materials discovery — those are press-reported rounds, not confirmed on the tracked tape. Regional data points the other way on volume: Oregon VC investment fell to $640.9M through three quarters (Business Journals). WildField Ventures plans up to $15M for Ukrainian defense startups — a plan, not a deployed amount. Reminder: fund sizes are LP commitments, not startup investment, and a lead's participation is not the whole round.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Bending Spoons' model of reviving discarded software companies is drawing Berkshire backing, per CNBC (last 24h) — a notable institutional vote for the rollup-at-scale thesis, though no transaction value was disclosed. Lightview Capital took a growth stake in lobbying firm Thorn Run Partners (Dealroom, last 24h). MAIN Street's dividend machine gets another Seeking Alpha feature on PE-driven income. Helios is pitching Africa's $20bn sports economy; Los Tacos No. 1 took PE money with a promise it 'won't suck now.' Axios flags Decart drawing suitor interest and challenges at Big Yellow Group, plus a $100B fund in the mix — announcement-level only.
Two explicit closes: Consonance Capital Partners closed its third healthcare buyout fund at a $1.35B hard cap (HedgeCo, last 24h) — a clean LP-demand datapoint in mid-market healthcare. IIFL Capital hit a $52.6M first close (₹500 crore) on its maiden late-stage PE fund, per Dealroom and Prop News Time. On the public side, Jio's IPO drew Rs 2.5 lakh crore in demand with GIC, Norges, ADIA and QIA among interested investors — demand at announcement, not allocation. PERE/NASDAQ reporting tracks insurers shifting toward real estate debt strategies in 2025. Fund sizes are commitments, not startup investment.
The FTC cleared Elon Musk's acquisition of SpaceX-alumni startup Mesh Optical Technologies (No. 20261601) — clearance is a regulatory step, not a confirmed closing, and terms are undisclosed. Cohere 'moves to buy' AI cybersecurity startup Aisle per Reuters: an intention, not a signed or closed deal. The Times reports Intuit buying UK AI startup Sequence (recent context); terms not stated. PhocusWire is tracking a busy Q3 in travel startup M&A and funding. Small-scale consolidation of AI infrastructure and adjacent software continues while the primary round tape pauses — a pattern consistent with acquirers absorbing sub-scale AI assets rather than new entrants pricing them.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2357 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-16 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is showing signs of caution as investors scale back on mega-rounds, with the notable exception of AI infrastructure providers like Modal Labs. There is high concentration in the AI/semiconductor vertical, while a general slowdown in broader deal-making persists amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a cooling environment for large-scale venture financings.
🗂️ Dataset updated: added 2 companies to the QuantLogix private-companies list — Machxin Technology, Icon — 2,699 → 2,701. Append-only.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +716% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +289% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Kajabi | SaaS | 81 | High | +135% | $2.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 4 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1692% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 5 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +868% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 6 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +548% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 7 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +385% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 8 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +309% | $2.5B | 61 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
78 markdowns detected all-time · 18 flagged beforehand · 60 missed · hit rate 23.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
| Applied Compute | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −56.7% | $3.0B → $1.3B | ✓ Flagged #32 · Elevated |
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
| Guild Education | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $4.4B → $3.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Harness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $5.5B → $4.7B | ✓ Flagged #60 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
One disclosed $26M round against $3.65B last week looks like a freeze, but the prior weeks were normal and disclosure lag routinely produces weeks like this in tracked data. The right read is uncertainty, not collapse. If you're raising, assume timelines stretch regardless — and keep your data room ready so your round doesn't disappear from the tape like this one's peers apparently did.
Replit ended its Anthropic work the same week it tops the Markdown Watch board (86/100, +289% vs public comps). Whatever the commercial rationale, dependence on a single model provider is now a diligence line item for any AI product company — and a mark-review trigger for investors. Diversify inference or be able to explain why you haven't.
Mistral AI (-41.7%) and Applied Compute (-56.7%) took large cuts this window while the mega-round board still shows OpenAI at $122B. Secondary marks are moving faster than primary narratives. If you're pricing a round off last quarter's comps, ask which marks your investors have actually updated — the spread between headline valuations and current marks is where deals die.
A near-empty tracked tape plus active fund closes (Pear $333M, Consonance $1.35B) points to LP capacity intact while deal disclosure pauses — expect next week's count to normalize. Watch: whether Mistral-style mark cuts extend to other AI leaders, Cohere–Aisle progression, and Jio's IPO pricing as a public-market sentiment test for Indian late-stage.