The tracked disclosed tape collapsed this window: 1 round, $26M — Ambi's pre-Series A led by Luminous Ventures (2026-10-12) — versus 51 rounds and $3.65B the prior week, a -99.3% capital drop. Every sector but AI printed zero: Energy, Fintech, Enterprise Software, Space, Robotics, AI Infrastructure and Semiconductors all went to zero after positive prior weeks. Caveats: this reflects tracked disclosed rounds only (2,699 companies; 2,453 eligible rounds), not the whole market, and a one-week sample this thin likely mixes real slowdown with disclosure lag — last week's $3.6B included large Energy and AI rounds. Mega-round marks on file: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B.
Source-reported funding outside the tracked tape (last 24h): Modal raised a $750M Series D for its AI cloud; Confido Health raised $12.5M led by Z47; Abby Care landed $82M for caregiver payments; EMode Photonix raised a $1M pre-seed for photonic circuit simulation; Spout raised a $2M strategic round for borrowing against tokenized stocks. These come from source headlines we have not confirmed against filings and are not in our tracked deal log. Also noted: Sony Bank filed for a US bank charter to launch a PlayStation stablecoin.
Two opposing currents define the week. First, the disconnect at the top: Ramp reached a $60B post-money valuation on a $1.85B round — a headline round, not broad-market recovery — and quantum startup Oratomic raised $475M at a $5.4B valuation (recent context). Second, the base is starving: Tiger Research notes Bitcoin had its best Q3 since 2017 yet funds have not flowed back into venture, and our own tracked tape confirms a -99.3% weekly capital drop. The Recursive's recent piece on a 'silent M&A wave' — selling becoming more attractive than the next round — aligns with this week's M&A volume. Coverage remains limited to tracked companies.
| Window | Rounds | Disclosed Amounts | Disclosed Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 0 | 0 | — |
| Last 7 days | 1 | 1 | $26M |
| Previous 7 days | 51 | 49 | $3.6B |
Week-over-week disclosed capital: -99.3%. All eligible tracked rounds are included, independently of the 12-company display limit below. Missing amounts are excluded from capital totals, not estimated. Date-only records use midnight UTC; these are rolling windows, not calendar-day totals.
| Sector | 7d Rounds | Prior 7d Rounds | 7d Disclosed Capital | Capital Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 1 | 15 | $26M | -98.4% |
| Space | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Enterprise Software | 0 | 6 | — | -100.0% |
| Robotics | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Energy | 0 | 2 | — | -100.0% |
| Fintech | 0 | 7 | — | -100.0% |
| AI Infrastructure | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
| Semiconductors | 0 | 1 | — | -100.0% |
Valuation risk is running in both directions. On the markdown watch (126 scored of 2,699 tracked; 2,573 unscored): Linktree and Replit both score 86/100 High (priced +695% and +261% vs public comps), Xendit 80/100 High at +1681%. Recent ledger events: Homewood took a -4.4% down round, Mistral AI absorbed a -41.7% mark cut, and Applied Compute a -56.7% cut. Offsetting context: Ramp's $60B round and Oratomic's $5.4B quantum valuation show top-tier rounds still clearing. Bloomberg reports Apollo's move on private credit daily marks was called an 'illusion' by critics — a live dispute over how marks get set.
No round-specific post-money valuations captured in the last seven days.
Historical round marks are not replaced with today's company valuation. Mark changes compare disclosed post-money levels, not investor returns; dilution and financing terms may differ. Secondary indications, fund marks and enterprise values in linked reporting are separate evidence, not interchangeable round valuations.
Disclosed round capital in the window. Undisclosed amounts count as zero.
Disclosed rounds in the window · every bar opens the company's live page.
The tracked disclosed tape collapsed this window: 1 round, $26M — Ambi's pre-Series A led by Luminous Ventures (2026-10-12) — versus 51 rounds and $3.65B the prior week, a -99.3% capital drop. Every sector but AI printed zero: Energy, Fintech, Enterprise Software, Space, Robotics, AI Infrastructure and Semiconductors all went to zero after positive prior weeks. Caveats: this reflects tracked disclosed rounds only (2,699 companies; 2,453 eligible rounds), not the whole market, and a one-week sample this thin likely mixes real slowdown with disclosure lag — last week's $3.6B included large Energy and AI rounds. Mega-round marks on file: OpenAI $122B, Waymo $16B, Scale AI $14B.
| Date | Company | Round | Amount | Reported Post-Money | Lead | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Ambi | Pre-Series A | $26M | — | Luminous Ventures | AI |
Where the window's activity sits on the funding ladder: deal count (solid) against disclosed capital (faded) per stage, with the companies behind each cluster. Stages come from the reported round labels; undisclosed amounts count as zero capital.
Fund formation stayed busy even as deal flow thinned. Nauta Capital reached a €60M first close for Fund VI with the British Business Bank as anchor (announced, last 24h). Reports also cite £6.9B raised by UK VC firms in Q3 2026 and a new IDB Lab commitment of $10M to Cometa IV for LatAm startups. Malaysia set a RM700M VC investment target by 2030 — a policy goal, not deployed capital. Regional read: Philadelphia Q3 startup funding topped $1.5B, but coverage itself flags the headline as hiding uneven distribution. As ever, fund closes are investor commitments, not startup investment.
| Lead Investor | Displayed Deals | Associated Round Sizes |
|---|---|---|
| Luminous Ventures | 1 | $26M |
Total sizes of associated rounds, not the lead investor's check sizes. Investor types are not inferred from their names.
Healthcare capital is rotating in at scale: OrbiMed raised $3B for global healthcare investments and Consonance Capital Partners closed its third healthcare buyout fund at a $1.35B hard cap — both within the last 24h. Berkshire Hathaway's Abel pushed into new territory with an investment in Bending Spoons, per Morningstar. Meanwhile CNBC reports the IPO drought is pushing PE-owned companies into the debt market to pay investors — a liquidity workaround worth watching for refinancing risk. Modern Healthcare flags potential costs in hospital real-estate sale-leasebacks. PE firms are also exploring bids for DS Smith, per TradingView.
Institutional plumbing updates: RBC GAM's $15bn private markets unit has a new leader drawn from the pension world (last 24h). Luxembourg's private markets trade group chair says the sector has reached an 'inflection point' — direction unclear without more detail. Graphite Capital returned to market with its long-awaited £500m flagship fund, a fundraising announcement, not a close. MSC Income Fund announced its Q3 2026 earnings release and call schedule. Fortune covers Indonesia's $5B program betting on its own stock market — sovereign support for public equities, not private-market deployment.
M&A momentum contrasts with the funding pause. Varonis is reported to be taken private in a $6.3B deal — an announcement, not a closing. GTCR and Elliott agreed to acquire CCC Intelligent Solutions in a $4.6bn transaction. Intuit is buying UK AI startup Sequence for a reported $200M. Cohere is moving to acquire AI cybersecurity startup Aisle and set up a security division. Yext plans an all-cash acquisition of a Covington startup. Notably, ServiceNow publicly denied acquisition interest in Decagon and its stock rose — a reminder that rumor-driven deals can evaporate. TradingView reports Q3 tech M&A grew even as private funding slumped.
Funding headlines from outside the tracked book — sourced links, not QL data.
The largest recent private rounds ($100M+) across the tracked book — 2357 ranked. Full board: quantlogix.ai/mega-rounds.
Display-only private-markets tape from the tracked roster — formations, priced fundraises, valuation marks, and U.S. VC lead activity. No inferred amounts; empty sections stay empty.
Window: 2026-10-15 · sources: private-companies.json, investors.json
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No in-tree private-market events matched the report window; amounts and valuations were not inferred.
The Silicon Valley Private Market Daily — the 8pm PT desk close: qualified raises, roster re-rates and sector velocity from the QL private-market pipeline.
The private market is showing significant concentration in AI-adjacent infrastructure and fintech, evidenced by the $60B valuation for Ramp and heavy capital infusion into specialized data center hardware startups like Mueon. Despite the high-valuation rounds, there is notable uncertainty in the IPO landscape, with major players like Anthropic facing scrutiny despite high revenue figures, and general caution regarding exits impacting investor sentiment.
🗂️ Dataset updated: no new closed rounds to add; list holds at 2,699.
100 tracked names flagged for markdown risk — 126 scored nightly, 2573 left unscored (no comp bridge). Down rounds are recorded in the open ledger — receipts only work in public. Live boards: markdown-watch · down-round-ledger.
| # | Company | Sector | Risk Score | Band | Vs Comps | Last Mark | Last Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linktree | SaaS | 86 | High | +695% | $1.3B | 55 mo ago |
| 2 | Replit | Data / Infra | 86 | High | +261% | $9.0B | 42 mo ago |
| 3 | Xendit | Financial Services | 80 | High | +1681% | $2.7B | 53 mo ago |
| 4 | Forter | Fintech | 80 | High | +862% | $3.0B | 65 mo ago |
| 5 | Greenlight | Fintech | 80 | High | +544% | $2.3B | 67 mo ago |
| 6 | Betterment | Fintech | 80 | High | +382% | $1.1B | 43 mo ago |
| 7 | Varo | Fintech | 80 | High | +334% | $2.5B | 61 mo ago |
| 8 | Cross River Bank | fintech | 80 | High | +185% | $3.0B | 55 mo ago |
Nightly score: comp-bridge premium (45%) · round staleness (30%) · IPO-readiness drag (15%) · funding deceleration (10%). Companies without a computable public-comp bridge stay unscored — never guessed.
78 markdowns detected all-time · 18 flagged beforehand · 60 missed · hit rate 23.1%
| Company | Detected | Event | Mark | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeward | 2026-10-12 | Down round −4.4% | $837M → $800M | ✗ Missed |
| Mistral AI | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −41.7% | $24B → $14B | ✓ Flagged #47 · Elevated |
| Applied Compute | 2026-10-12 | Mark cut −56.7% | $3.0B → $1.3B | ✓ Flagged #32 · Elevated |
| Unacademy | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −5.5% | $218M → $206M | ✗ Missed |
| Abridge | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −6.8% | $5.7B → $5.3B | ✓ Flagged #38 · Elevated |
| Kling AI | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −10.0% | $20B → $18B | ✓ Flagged #16 · Elevated |
| Guild Education | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $4.4B → $3.8B | ✗ Missed |
| Harness | 2026-10-05 | Mark cut −14.8% | $5.5B → $4.7B | ✓ Flagged #60 · Elevated |
Down-round & valuation headlines scraped at publication from Google News, Hacker News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the wider tech press.
One tracked deal and $26M in a week is a real signal but also a disclosure-lag artifact — last week printed 51 rounds and $3.6B. Don't extrapolate either direction from a single window. What matters: money is still concentrating in mega-rounds (Ramp $60B, Oratomic $5.4B) while the mid-market pauses. If you're raising now, expect longer cycles and plan runway for it.
The week's volume is in acquisitions: Varonis at $6.3B, CCC at $4.6bn, Intuit-Sequence at $200M, Cohere-Aisle — and The Recursive's thesis that a sale is beating the next round for many companies. ServiceNow's denial on Decagon shows rumor risk cuts both ways. If your next raise looks unattractive, a strategic buyer at a fair mark may be the better outcome.
Mistral AI (-41.7%) and Applied Compute (-56.7%) took mark cuts this week, and Bloomberg reports critics calling private credit daily marks an 'illusion' after Apollo's move. If you're priced far above public comps — like the 86-score names on our watch list — assume LPs and acquirers will test that number. A small proactive down round may beat a forced one later.
Watch whether the one-deal week repeats: if next week's tape stays near zero while mega-rounds and healthcare PE close at $1B+ sizes, the bifurcation is structural, not seasonal. Key signals: whether Ramp's $60B round pulls growth-stage peers back to market, and whether the IPO drought keeps forcing PE exits into debt markets.