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◆QUANTLOGIX DAILY BRIEF
WEDNESDAY · 09/30/2026 PRE-MARKET
S&P Futures
7,753.75
+0.28%
Nasdaq Futures
30,695
+0.27%
10Y Yield
5.24%
+1.35%
Macro Sentiment
56/100
Neutral
Signal Breadth
28%
bearish

◆ Market Pulse

Equities closed modestly lower with the S&P 500 at 7670.84 (-0.17%), the Nasdaq at 26797.54 (-0.09%), the Dow at 51349.92 (-0.26%), and the Russell 2000 the laggard at -0.35%. Utilities (+1.17%) led sectors while Energy (-0.90%) bottomed the board, with Materials (-0.75%) and Staples (-0.52%) also under pressure. Single-name action was violent but narrow: LGHL surged 56.1% and VBIO 33.9% on the upside, while LSE (-13.2%), SUJA (-12.6%), and TRLV (-11.1%) led decliners. The Fed's preferred gauge showing core inflation at 3.0% in August — lighter than expected — alongside finalized stress-test transparency changes gave the macro backdrop a dovish tilt even as the 10-year sits at 5.24%. S&P futures are pointing 0.28% higher into the next session with VIX down 1.62% at 15.78.

◆ Index Board — Today's Close

S&P 500S&P 500 · 7,670.84 · -0.17% on the day-0.17%NASDAQ CompositeNASDAQ Composite · 26,797.54 · -0.09% on the day-0.09%Dow Jones IndustrialDow Jones Industrial Average · 51,349.92 · -0.26% on the day-0.26%Russell 2000Russell 2000 · 2,807.92 · -0.35% on the day-0.35%CBOE VolatilityCBOE Volatility Index · 15.78 · -1.62% on the day-1.62%

Change on the day for the major indices. VIX sits in the metric strip above — it reads inversely, so it is kept out of this scale.

◆ Overnight Futures

S&P FuturesS&P Futures · 7,753.75 · +0.28%+0.28%Nasdaq FuturesNasdaq Futures · 30,695 · +0.27%+0.27%Dow FuturesDow Futures · 51,821 · +0.23%+0.23%Russell 2000 FuturesRussell 2000 Futures · 2,838 · +0.31%+0.31%

◆ Overnight Headlines

FEDERAL RESERVE1m ago
Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-relate
Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requiremen
COINDESK1m ago
Petrobras is testing the blockchain in two research projects aimed at preventing emissions benefits from being counted twice and tracing fuel data across production and use.
COINTELEGRAPH1m ago
Singapore crypto activity grows 55% as broader region contracts
Singapore’s crypto economy grew 55.4% to $284 billion as institutional-platform activity surged 94%, while the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam stood out for small-value P2P trans
CNBC1m ago
Robinhood is broadening its offerings in a bid for more active traders who may be seeking trading access beyond traditional U.S. stock market hours.
CNBC2m ago
The personal consumption expenditures price index was projected to show an annual gain of 3.7% on headline and 3.3% for core, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

◆ Signal Standouts

Bullish signals sit at 27.9% of the 4,506-name universe, but the more telling read is breadth expanding +3.8 points day-over-day. A broadening cue against a flattish tape means participation is widening beyond the index level — more names improving even as the headline print barely moves, an early risk-on participation signal rather than leadership thinning. The distribution remains neutral-heavy (2,552 neutral names, 56.7%), so this is early-stage broadening, not a confirmed regime turn.

28%BULLISH
Strong Buy
17
Buy
1,242
Neutral
2,552
Sell
660
Strong Sell
35
Signal breadth — last 38 sessions28%
2026-08-10low 19% · high 44%2026-09-30

Hover the line (or focus it and use ← →) to read any single session.

Strong Buy standouts: MANE · PACB · USDE · DPRO · SLGL · OCC · WATT · ASPS · MATH · SAIH · SVRN · COSM

Strong Sell standouts: REG · WK · KWR · BVC · HTZ · XLAB · ONEW · WYHG · AARD · NPT · MCHX · WFCF

See full signals →

◆ Earnings Ahead

Sort by date, EPS growth, or revenue growth.
TickerNext ReportInLast EPS YoYLast Rev YoY
MSFT 2026-10-26 26d +31.8% +17.7%
TSLA 2026-11-16 47d -3.0% +25.5%
AAPL 2026-11-23 53d +28.7% +16.4%
XOM 2026-11-24 55d +112.2% +42.3%
JPM 2026-11-30 61d +46.9% +27.7%
NVDA 2026-12-17 78d +127.8% +105.9%

◆ Sector Setup

Utilities
BULLISH
Leading the board at +1.17% with the 10-year at 5.24% — a rate-sensitive bid into lighter-than-expected core inflation.
Comm. Svcs
BULLISH
Second-best sector at +0.26%, part of a defensive-plus-communications leadership pairing on the day.
Technology
NEUTRAL
Flat at -0.02% despite the Nasdaq outperforming the Dow — mega-cap tech is holding the index up without sector-wide follow-through.
Financials
NEUTRAL
Down 0.33% as Fed stress-test transparency changes land, a modest negative for bank capital-return narratives.
Materials
BEARISH
Off 0.75% alongside Staples (-0.52%), signaling demand-side weakness rather than a pure rate story.
Energy
BEARISH
Worst sector at -0.90% with GDP growth at just 1.5% YoY — the growth-sensitive complex is pricing softness.

◆ Economic Snapshot

Fed Funds Rate
3.63%YoY -16.2%
Unemployment Rate
4.1%YoY -4.7%
Inflation Rate (YoY)
3.35%
GDP Growth
1.5%YoY -40.0%
10-Year Treasury
5.24%YoY +5.9%
Consumer Sentiment
51.7YoY -11.2%

Year-over-year movement

Fed Funds RateFed Funds Rate: 3.63% · -16.2% year over year-16.17%Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate: 4.1% · -4.7% year over year-4.65%Inflation Rate (YoY)Inflation Rate (YoY): 3.35% · +0.0% year over year+0.00%GDP GrowthGDP Growth: 1.5% · -40.0% year over year-40.00%10-Year Treasury10-Year Treasury: 5.24% · +5.9% year over year+5.86%Consumer SentimentConsumer Sentiment: 51.7 · -11.2% year over year-11.17%

◆ Catalyst Calendar

The event calendar is light: no corporate events are on the slate and the nearest mega-cap print is MSFT in 26 days (Oct 26), with TSLA, AAPL, and NVDA 47+ days out. The IPO pipeline is the live catalyst — Oura (filed range $40-$44), Ives Ultra AI Opportunities and TCGX Acquisition II at $10, plus SRAV, RGNA, and TFP pending pricing.

  • IPO SRAV — Source Agriventures Inc.
  • IPO IVAI — Ives Ultra AI Opportunities Inc.
  • IPO OURA — Oura Inc.
  • IPO RGNA — Regenlab USA Inc.
  • IPO TCXB — TCGX Acquisition Corp. II
  • IPO TFP — TFP Group Ltd.
  • IPO ACCV — Accelevation Holdings Corp. · 2026-09-30
  • IPO BYOP — KiNRG Inc.
  • IPO FLSC — Frazier Life Sciences Acquisition Corp. II
  • IPO SOUD — Hacker Interstellar Inc.

◆ IPO Radar — Upcoming Listings & Pipeline News

Sort by listing date, days out, or offer range · amber = news-estimated date
TickerCompanyListing DateInOffer RangeExchange
ACCV Accelevation Holdings Corp. 2026-09-30 listed $20–$24 XNAS
SRAV Source Agriventures Inc. TBA — — XNAS
IVAI Ives Ultra AI Opportunities Inc. TBA — $10 XNYS
OURA Oura Inc. TBA — $40–$44 XNAS
RGNA Regenlab USA Inc. TBA — — XNAS
TCXB TCGX Acquisition Corp. II TBA — $10 XNAS
TFP TFP Group Ltd. TBA — — XNYS
BYOP KiNRG Inc. TBA — $5–$7 XASE
FLSC Frazier Life Sciences Acquisition Corp. II TBA — $10 XNAS
SOUD Hacker Interstellar Inc. TBA — $11 XNAS

Full pipeline + S-1 tracker on IPO Radar · pre-IPO valuations and secondaries on Private Companies.

◆ Private Markets & Pre-IPO Activity

The private tape is active at the top end: AMD's announced $8.2B acquisition of World Labs (Sep 28) dwarfs the rest of the week's deal flow, with UAE-affiliated entities at $6B across 2 deals and Jane Street at $3B across 2. Among traditional VCs, Insight Partners leads on count (6 deals, $336.6M) while Andreessen Horowitz leads on deployed capital outside mega-deals (5 deals, $694M); earlier-stage activity included Arivihan's $10M Series A at a $59.5M valuation (Accel/Prosus) and Outmarket's $35M Series B.

DateCompanyEventAmountLead Investor
2026-09-28 World Labs · AI Acquisition (announced) $8,200M led by AMD $8.2B AMD
2026-09-28 Astro Digital · Space / Defense SPAC merger + PIPE (announced) $180M led by Proem Asset Management $180M Proem Asset Management
2026-09-28 Modulate · AI Venture $25M led by Future Ventures $25M Future Ventures
2026-09-26 Sanyark Space · Space Pre-Seed $2M led by Avaana Capital; AUM Ventures $2M Avaana Capital; AUM Ventures
2026-09-25 Arivihan · Education Series A $10M led by Accel; Prosus $10M Accel; Prosus
2026-09-25 Outmarket · Insurtech Series B $35M led by SignalFire $35M SignalFire
2026-09-24 OpenEvidence · Healthcare Unlabeled (reported) $250M $250M —
2026-09-24 HIFI · Fintech Series A $37M led by Left Lane Capital $37M Left Lane Capital

Track 2,590 pre-IPO names on Private Companies · browse 280+ investor profiles · live deal tape on Deal Signals.

◆ Round Sizes — Recent Raises

World LabsWorld Labs · Acquisition (announced) $8,200M led by AMD · valuation $8.2B — open the company page$8.2BAstro DigitalAstro Digital · SPAC merger + PIPE (announced) $180M led by Proem Asset Management — open the company page$180MModulateModulate · Venture $25M led by Future Ventures — open the company page$25MSanyark SpaceSanyark Space · Pre-Seed $2M led by Avaana Capital; AUM Ventures · valuation $8M — open the company page$2MArivihanArivihan · Series A $10M led by Accel; Prosus · valuation $60M — open the company page$10MOutmarketOutmarket · Series B $35M led by SignalFire · valuation $335M — open the company page$35MOpenEvidenceOpenEvidence · Unlabeled (reported) $250M · valuation $15.0B — open the company page$250MHIFIHIFI · Series A $37M led by Left Lane Capital — open the company page$37M

Bar = amount raised · click through to the company's pre-IPO page.

Where the money went — sector split

AI $8.2B: 8,225,000,000Healthcare $250M: 250,000,000Space / Defense $180M: 180,000,000Fintech $37M: 37,000,000Insurtech $35M: 34,500,000Education $10M: 10,000,000

Most active lead investors (last 45 days)

Insight Partners · 6 deals · $337MAndreessen Horowitz · 5 deals · $694MUnited Arab Emirates and affiliated investment entities · 2 deals · $6.0BAndreessen Horowitz / Accel / Founders Fund / General Catalyst / Avenir (co-led) · 2 deals · $4.0BJane Street · 2 deals · $3.0B

◆ Trading Implications

Educational framework discussion of market conditions — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

◆ Deep Dive

Reading breadth expansion on a down day

Today's setup — S&P -0.17% but universe breadth up +3.8 points — is a classic early-participation pattern. Breadth measures how many names are improving versus deteriorating regardless of index direction; when it expands while the index is flat-to-down, it means the decline is concentrated in a few heavy weights while the median stock is actually strengthening. That matters because index-level weakness driven by concentration is mechanically different from broad-based selling: the former often precedes catch-up rallies, the latter marks regime deterioration. The caveat is that 27.9% bullish still sits below the neutral wall (56.7%), so this is a watch-item, not a confirmation — the signal becomes actionable only if breadth keeps building as the index itself turns.

QuantLogix briefings are educational market commentary generated from live data, not investment advice. Signals are quantitative model outputs, not recommendations. Markets carry risk of loss.