Thesis Monitor

Write down why you are backing or watching a private company. We break the argument into claims that can be checked, show the evidence behind each one and how much weight it can bear, and review the thesis every day, week, month, quarter and year.

Loading your theses…

How evidence is graded

Private companies do not publish their results, so every figure here carries a tier saying where it came from. When nothing has been disclosed, the claim says so and stays open. No figure is estimated to fill a gap.

Tier 1 Direct

Your own information rights, board deck or data room. Only you can add it, and only you see it.

Tier 2 Filed

Statutory accounts and securities filings.

Tier 3 Transacted

What somebody paid: a priced round, a tender or a secondary sale.

Tier 4 Stated

A press report or the company's own statement.

Tier 5 Inferred

A proxy such as headcount, or a modelled figure. Direction only.

What each review covers

Daily

What changed: claims that moved, a new round, a new mark.

Weekly

The week's changes and where thesis health ended up.

Monthly

Every claim re-checked, milestones included, plus evidence that has gone stale and deadlines coming up.

Quarterly

Performance: the mark against your entry, claims resolved, hit rate.

Annual

The full record: what held, what broke, annualised change in the mark.

A private-company valuation is the last disclosed mark, not a price you can trade at, and gains shown against it are on paper. Figures come from the QuantLogix private-company record and from evidence you add. This is a research tool, not investment advice.