A short report lands and the stock loses a fifth of its value in an hour. The only question that matters — press or fade? — has a base rate nobody publishes: how much of each firm's day-one drop actually held. This ledger keeps the whole tape for a named roster of activist short sellers: every initial report with its date and URL as the receipt, the undisturbed price the day before, the reaction, the stock versus SPY at 1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months scored from the short's side, a verdict at twelve months — and, computed from the graded rows, each firm's track record. The live book of fresh reports is the desk feed; the graded record is the product's credibility. Grades come only from prices; an AI never decides an outcome.
Reports under twelve months old — press or fade. Undisturbed is the close before publication; short alpha is SPY minus the stock since then, so green means the report is holding. Read the firm's record on the right of each row before you trade the headline.
| Company | Firm | Published | Undisturbed | Reaction | Stock since | Short alpha | 3-mo alpha | Firm's record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading the book… | ||||||||
Computed from the graded rows below — never asserted. A firm is labelled from its median twelve-month short alpha only after 3 graded reports — a short's loss is unbounded, so one squeeze does not decide the label; the mean sits beside it. Sharpshooters earned it, and so did blank firers. Click a firm for its full report ledger.
| Firm | Reports | Graded | Median 12-mo short alpha | Mean | Worked / flat / failed | Avg reaction | Live | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading track records… | ||||||||
The distribution a desk sizes with: short alpha (SPY minus the stock) at each horizon across every priced report. The mean is the headline; the quartiles are the risk of the squeeze.
| Horizon | Reports | Mean | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct | 90th pct | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading… | ||||||||
Every report that reached twelve months — the stock's return from the undisturbed close, SPY over the same dates, the short alpha, the verdict and the report itself. This record stays public at every tier.
| Company | Firm | Published | Undisturbed | Reaction | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo | Verdict | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading the record… | ||||||||||
A report needs a firm on the roster, a publication date since 2018, a US ticker and the report URL. Follow-ups on the same company within a year attach to the campaign; they never restart it.
Entry is the close before publication — the price the report had to move. The reaction is the second session after it.
Every horizon subtracts the stock from SPY between exactly the same closes: excess is the short's alpha, so a report works when the stock underperforms. Split-adjusted price returns.
+5 points or better worked; −5 or worse failed; between is flat. A tape that ended early (delisting — often the thesis proven, sometimes a buyout that squeezed the short) grades at its last print and says so.
The ledger does not know when the firm covered. The grades are the tape from publication — the trade a follower could have put on.
Median and mean twelve-month short alpha, worked / flat / failed counts — from the graded rows, labelled from the median only past 3 (a short's loss is unbounded, so one squeeze never decides a label). Non-US subjects are counted as unpriced; a firm's absence from the roster is not a statement about it.
QL Short Report Ledger is diagnostic research about published reports and prices, not investment advice and not an assessment of any report's claims. Rows link the reports they grade; returns are arithmetic on split-adjusted closes and SPY over the same dates; twelve-month grades are a base rate, not a forecast for any report. The ledger does not know when a firm covered its position. Nothing here recommends buying, selling or shorting any security.
Every published report by a named roster of activist short sellers graded against the tape from the short's side: entry at the undisturbed close before publication, the two-session reaction, the stock vs SPY at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months where excess is SPY minus the stock, a verdict at twelve months with the report as the receipt, and per-firm track records computed from the graded rows.
Entry is the close before the publication date. The twelve-month short alpha, SPY minus the stock over the same dates, decides the verdict: worked at +5 points or better, failed at −5 points or worse, flat between. A tape that ended before twelve months, a delisting, grades at its last print and says so. The ledger does not know when the firm covered.
Labels are computed from graded reports, never asserted: a firm is called a sharpshooter or a blank firer only after three graded reports, from the median twelve-month short alpha, because a short's loss is unbounded and one squeeze should not decide a label. Thinner records read as accruing.