An auditor walks. Management says last year's numbers can't be relied on. The CFO resigns on a Friday. Each one lands on EDGAR as an 8-K with an item number, on a date, in a filing — and then it becomes folklore: "restatements are death", "CFO exits are noise". This ledger seals every one of those flags the day it is indexed, marks the stock against SPY from the undisturbed close before the filing, and publishes the base rate per flag type. What the tape actually does after a red flag, with the filing as the receipt.
Flags under twelve months old — the ones a desk can still act on. Newest filing first. Undisturbed is the close before the filing; vs SPY is measured from there, from the flag's side.
| Company | Flag | Filed | Undisturbed | Reaction | Return | vs SPY | 3-mo vs SPY | Company's flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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The product. For each kind of flag: how many, how many graded, how often the stock fell 5pp+ behind SPY at twelve months, and the median excess at each horizon. A type is labelled only past 10 graded flags. Positive means the flag was confirmed.
| Flag | 8-K item | Flags | Graded | Confirmed | Reaction | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Flag density: companies ranked by flags in the trailing twelve months, then all-time. Click a company for its full history. Records are computed from the graded rows, never asserted.
| Company | Flags (12m) | All time | Kinds | Last flag | Graded | Confirmed | Median 12-mo vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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The distribution a desk sizes with: excess return (SPY minus the stock) at each horizon across every priced flag. The median is the headline; the quartiles are the risk.
| Horizon | Flags | Mean | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct | 10th pct | 90th pct | Confirmed side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Every flag that reached twelve months — the return from the undisturbed close, SPY over the same dates, the excess from the flag's side, the verdict and the EDGAR receipt. This record stays public at every tier.
| Company | Flag | Filed | Undisturbed | Reaction | 1 mo | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo | Verdict | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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A flag is admitted only when EDGAR's structured item list carries it — 4.01, 4.02, or 5.02 with resignation language. No document is parsed and no model reads a filing. Blank-check companies, funds and trusts are excluded: their churn is structural.
Entry is the close before the filing date, so the market's first reaction is inside the measurement. The reaction is the two-session move from there.
Every horizon subtracts SPY between exactly the same closes. Returns are split-adjusted; a horizon grades only when a session sits within tolerance of the target date.
Excess = SPY minus the stock. Confirmed is 5 points or more; false alarm is −5 or worse; between is noise. A tape that ended early (delisting, acquisition) grades on its last print and says so.
A flag type carries a label only past ten graded flags; a company only past two. Everything before that is shown as accruing, never asserted.
Filings whose issuer has no ticker in EDGAR's index — often delisted since — are counted and shown, never dropped. They bias the base rates toward the companies that survived, and the ledger says so.
QL Red Flag Ledger is diagnostic research about public filings and prices, not investment advice and not a fraud detector. Flags link their EDGAR filings; returns are arithmetic on split-adjusted closes; SPY is the benchmark over identical dates. A red flag is a disclosure event with a measured aftermath — the base rate is the point, the individual case is the receipt.
A public, forward-graded record of accounting and governance red flags disclosed on SEC Form 8-K: auditor changes (Item 4.01), restatements and non-reliance on prior financials (Item 4.02), and CEO or CFO exits (Item 5.02 with resignation language). Each flag is sealed the day EDGAR indexes it and graded against SPY at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months from the undisturbed close before the filing. The receipt is the filing itself.
Excess return is SPY's return minus the stock's return over the same dates, so a positive number means the stock fell behind the market after the flag — the flag was confirmed. A flag grades at twelve months or when its tape ends. Verdicts: confirmed (five points or more), false alarm (minus five or worse), noise (between). Base rates per flag type are labelled only past ten graded flags.
The base rates, the distributions, the full graded record with EDGAR receipts, every company's flag history and the methodology are public at every tier. The live board of flags under twelve months old is Institutional; lower tiers see a laddered preview of fully priced rows and identity-only rows beyond it.