Insiders vs Engine — Do the People Who Run the Company Beat the Machine?

Every trading day, corporate insiders (Form 4 filers) and QuantLogix's forecast engine make an implied directional call on the same liquid names. When the engine's forecast horizon elapses, both calls resolve against the same realized outcomes and fold into a permanent Brier-score ledger. Insider buying — especially a cluster of distinct buyers — is a real, costly signal; insider selling is mostly noise, so it is weighted far less. This is a public, falsifiable record of who is more calibrated: the insiders or the machine.

Related: QL Foresight · Analyst vs Engine · Crowd vs Engine · Insider Buying

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🕵️ Insiders vs Engine

Do insiders beat the machine?

Every day, corporate insiders (Form 4 buying) and the QuantLogix engine make the same directional calls on the same names. When the forecast resolves, both are scored against the same outcomes — and the whole record is public. Brier score is lower-is-better; a coin flip is 0.250.

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