Public Markets · Accountability

QL Guidance Ledger

Every quarter, S&P 500 companies publish a revenue range. A few months later they report a number. Nobody keeps score in public. This ledger does: every revenue guidance line in an earnings-release 8-K is sealed the day it lands, then graded against the revenue the company reported to the SEC in XBRLbeat, within or miss, and the sandbag: how far the reported figure sat above or below the midpoint. Filings in, filings out. No transcripts, no sell side, no model reading the release — strict templates, and whatever does not fit is counted rather than guessed.

Guidance resolved
graded against XBRL, since 2023
Beat rate
reported above the top of the range
Miss rate
reported below the bottom
Median sandbag
reported vs midpoint · positive = guided low
Sandbaggers
labelled companies
Pending
guided, not yet reported

The Board

Guidance still pending — what companies have promised and not yet reported, newest filing first. Reaction is the two-session move from the undisturbed close before the 8-K, minus SPY.

CompanyPeriodGuided revenueRevisionFiledReaction vs SPYCompany's recordReceipt
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Base rates

Across every resolved row: how often companies beat the top of their own range, land inside it, or miss the bottom — and the sandbag distribution. Cut by period, by revision, and by whether the guidance was a range or a point. Labelled past 20 resolved rows.

CutResolvedBeatWithinMissMedian sandbag25th pct75th pct
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Did the tape know?

The guidance-day reaction (two sessions, minus SPY) split by the verdict the period eventually produced. If sandbaggers are recognised on the day, their reactions should sit above the rest.

Eventual verdictRowsMean reactionMedian reaction25th pct75th pctShare positive
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Company records

Ranked by resolved rows. A company is labelled only past 4 resolved rows: sandbagger (median sandbag ≥ +1.5% and beats at least half the time), over-promiser (median ≤ −1.5% or misses 40%+), straight shooter otherwise. Click a company for its full history.

CompanyGuidedResolvedBeat · within · missRaised · loweredMedian sandbagLatest guidanceRecord
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The Resolved Record

Every guidance row that has met its reported number — the range as filed, the reported figure and the XBRL fact behind it, the sandbag, the verdict and the receipt. Public at every tier.

CompanyPeriodGuidedReportedSandbagVerdictRevisionReaction vs SPYReceipts
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How grading works

1 · Strict templates seal the guidance

A line qualifies only when it names a fiscal period, the word revenue or net sales, and a dollar range or point — "Q1 FY2027: Revenue $18.0 billion to $18.2 billion". A period on a heading carries to the lines beneath it. Growth rates without a dollar figure, and comparisons to a prior period, are not guidance.

2 · Actuals from XBRL, on the company's calendar

The reported figure is the XBRL fact stamped with the same fiscal year and period the company used, so off-calendar fiscal years grade correctly. Q4 is the year minus the three reported quarters. A restated figure replaces the original.

3 · Beat, within, miss — and the sandbag

Beat is reported revenue above the top of the range; miss is below the bottom. Sandbag is reported versus the midpoint, in percent — positive means the company guided below what it delivered.

4 · Revenue only, on purpose

EPS guidance is almost always non-GAAP and has no XBRL twin. Grading it would mean trusting a company's own reconciliation. Revenue is reported once, the same way, by every company.

5 · Coverage is counted, not padded

Some companies guide in growth rates or on the call, not in dollars in the release. Whatever the templates cannot admit is left out and counted. The coverage figures are on every payload.

6 · Labels come late

A company is labelled only past four resolved rows; base rates past twenty. Everything before that is shown as accruing, never asserted.

7 · A 40% gap is a different line item

A company does not miss its own revenue guidance by 40% outside a collapse. When the reported figure sits that far from the guided midpoint, the two are not the same thing — a product line, a segment, a quarter read as a year — and the row is shown as unmatched: never scored, never in a rate. The count is on every payload.

QL Guidance Ledger is diagnostic research about public filings, not investment advice. Guidance links its EDGAR filing; reported figures link their XBRL facts; parsing is deterministic and its coverage is disclosed. A sandbag record describes past guidance, not future results.

Frequently asked questions

What is the QL Guidance Ledger?

A public, forward-graded record of S&P 500 revenue guidance. Every revenue range or point a company publishes in an earnings-release 8-K is sealed the day it lands, with the filing as the receipt, then graded against the revenue the company later reported to the SEC in XBRL — beat, within or miss, and the sandbag versus the midpoint. Company records roll the resolved rows into sandbagger, straight shooter or over-promiser once enough have resolved.

Why revenue only, and where do the actuals come from?

Actuals come from SEC XBRL companyfacts, matched on the fiscal year and period the company itself stamps on the fact, so off-calendar fiscal years grade correctly; Q4 is the year minus the three reported quarters. EPS guidance is almost always non-GAAP and has no XBRL twin, so the ledger grades revenue only and says so.

What does the free tier see?

Everything that makes the record credible: base rates, every resolved guidance row with its EDGAR receipt and the reported figure beside it, company records and the full methodology. The board of guidance still pending — what companies have promised and not yet reported — is the Institutional product; lower tiers see the newest few rows and identity-only rows for the rest.