$CME QuantLogix Newsdesk · July 15, 2026 at 9:17 AM UTC

CME FedWatch Puts September Rate-Hike Odds at 73%

What happened

CME Group's FedWatch tool now prices a 73% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by September, up meaningfully from earlier in the year. Two factors are driving the repricing: persistent inflation signals and resilient labor market data, both of which are overriding the disinflationary signal from falling crude oil prices. Fed funds futures embedded in CME's derivatives complex are reflecting the shift in rate expectations in real time.

The QL Read

CME carries a composite signal of 56/100 (Neutral) with shares flat at $243.61 on a modestly risk-on tape (59.9% breadth advancing). Higher rate-hike odds historically lift CME's interest-rate derivatives volumes — a catalyst the neutral signal has not yet priced in. Watch for volume disclosure in the next monthly ADV release.

Source: The Motley Fool — "Despite Falling Oil Prices, There's Now a 73% Chance of an Interest Rate Hike by September -- Here Are the 2 Culprits to Blame" — 2026-07-15T08:06:00Z

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