📂 Macro Regime Shift

New Institutional flagship: build a what-if book, roll 5,000 regime-switching Monte Carlo futures, replay five crises, and A/B every edit against your baseline — confidence-tagged.

Markets are not normally distributed, yet most risk budgets are built as if they were. Here is the framework for fat tails, the asymmetry of drawdown math, and how convexity — not diversification — survives a regime break.

A 50% loss needs a 100% gain just to break even. Why drawdown recovery is asymmetric, what fat tails do to a portfolio, and how convexity keeps you in the game.