📂 Macro Regime Shift

Markets are not normally distributed, yet most risk budgets are built as if they were. Here is the framework for fat tails, the asymmetry of drawdown math, and how convexity — not diversification — survives a regime break.

A 50% loss needs a 100% gain just to break even. Why drawdown recovery is asymmetric, what fat tails do to a portfolio, and how convexity keeps you in the game.