Merger arb lives inside terminals; announced deals get a headline and then vanish until they close — or quietly die. This ledger keeps the whole tape: every announced acquisition of a public company with its terms, stated close window and source, the live spread marked against real prices with a stated implied-odds read, and — the part nobody publishes — the graded record: which deals closed, how late, which broke and why, each with a receipt. From the resolved tape come acquirer track records: serial closers earn the label, and so do deal-breakers. Grades come only from evidence; an AI never decides an outcome.
Announced, unresolved deals sorted by annualized spread — offer value vs the live price (stock offers marked at the live acquirer price × ratio), annualized over the companies' own stated window. Implied odds assume the pre-announcement price as the break fallback — a stated simplification, on the tin.
| Target | Acquirer | Announced | Offer | Price | Spread | Annualized | Implied odds | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Every resolved deal on the tape — closed or broken, with the receipt that graded it. Closed deals record lateness against the window as originally stated; broken deals record why. This record stays public at every tier: receipts are the product's credibility.
| Deal | Announced | Terms | Outcome | Days | The receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Computed from the resolved rows above — never asserted. An acquirer is labelled only after 2 resolved deals on the tape: serial closers earned it, and so did deal-breakers.
| Acquirer | Deals | Closed | Broken | Close rate | Median days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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A deal needs both parties, an announcement date and source, real terms (a per-share value or an exchange ratio), and the companies' own stated close window. Rumors never enter the ledger.
A deal resolves closed or broken only via a linked receipt — the completion or termination reported by its own evidence URL. Past its window with no receipt it reads overdue, never auto-broken.
Spreads are arithmetic on observable prices. The implied close probability assumes the pre-announcement price as the break fallback — a stated simplification, disclosed everywhere it appears, never a hidden model.
Acquirer labels come from the resolved tape — close rate and median days to close — and only after 2 resolutions. Thinner records read as accruing, never a fake score.
QL M&A Close Ledger is diagnostic research about announced transactions, not investment advice. Deal terms link their announcements; grades carry their own evidence links; spread and implied-odds figures are arithmetic on observable prices under the stated fallback assumption and can be wrong in both directions — spreads are often wide for good reasons. Nothing here recommends buying, selling or holding any security.
Every announced acquisition of a public company tracked from announcement to close or break: live merger-arb spreads with implied close odds, resolutions graded only via receipts with evidence URLs, and acquirer track records computed from the resolved tape.
Arithmetic on observable prices: the spread between the live target price and the offer value, annualized over the stated close window. The implied probability assumes the pre-announcement price as the break fallback — a stated simplification, not a hidden model.
Only via a curated receipt with its own evidence URL — a close or a termination reported by a linked source. A deal past its stated window with no receipt reads overdue, never auto-broken, and closed deals record whether they closed late.