Foresight grades the price, Exit Odds grades the exit — this board grades the question holders actually ask: when can I sell? A sealed monthly probability that each covered private company delivers an executable liquidity event — a tender offer, an authorized employee sale, a reported block sale — onto the QL Secondary Tape within 6 months. Outcomes come from the tape itself, where every event carries a source URL. Sealed claims are never edited; the Brier score and calibration table are published win or lose.
Each call is one probability with its driver breakdown at issuance — the company's own tape history and cadence, marketplace presence, valuation scale, fresh capital, holder pressure, and registration status. Deterministic, disclosed, no black box. Marketplace indications never count as outcomes — only executable events do.
| Company | Sector | P(liquidity event, 6m) | Tape history | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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What do this month's sealed odds imply before a single claim is graded? Every chart below is drawn from the board's own published aggregate — a projection of its claims, never a record. The first real grades land at the horizon.
Every sealed call's claimed probability. Drag the threshold to keep only the board's most convinced calls and see what the sealed odds imply for them.
Sealed calls backed by prior executable events on the tape vs first-time claims, across all — names.
Mean claimed probability across the board's largest sectors.
Sealed claims whose event has already landed on the tape before their board's 6-month horizon. Nothing here is in the record yet — a board only grades, in full, when its horizon elapses. The tape's collector runs every 6 hours, so this strip is where claims meet reality in near-real time.
When the board says 30% chance of a liquidity event, it should happen about 30% of the time. The table fills as boards grade. The record must beat the model's own sealed base rate — and it publishes the "never" baseline (p = 0, whose Brier equals the realized event rate) because rare events make "never" cheap.
| Claimed band | Calls | Realized |
|---|---|---|
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Liquidity Odds are model probabilities from disclosed data, not predictions of any transaction, offer, or program, and not an indication that any holder may participate in any event; private-market data is sparse and every call discloses its drivers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Past record ≠ future results.
Monthly sealed probabilities that each covered private company delivers holders a real liquidity event — a tender offer, authorized employee sale, or block sale — within 6 months, graded against the observed Secondary Tape and Brier-scored in public.
Tender offers, authorized secondary sales and block sales observed on the QL Secondary Tape. The 183-day horizon means this record grades twice as fast as Exit Odds.
Holders asking “when can I actually sell” and desks pricing access. The sealed probabilities also feed QL Deal Screen’s liquidity pillar. Part of QuantLogix Institutional.