QL IPO Ledger — we price it before the bankers do

For every private company with a filing or an expected listing, QuantLogix publishes a dated valuation range — before the deal prices. When the company lists, the call is graded in public: inside the range, above it, or below it. The range is derived from the last confirmed mark by a published band, never hand-typed per name. Every call shows its band width, and the record is broken out by stage and for sharp calls only — a wide range that lands is never sold as a narrow one. Rumored names sit on the watchlist and are graded nowhere. Forward-only. Never backfilled. Never rewritten.

📊 The board map — every call, on a log valuation axis

The board spans $1.5B to $1.4T, so the axis is logarithmic — on a linear one Anthropic is the entire chart and every other call is a sliver. Hover any row for the full call; click to open the company. Turn on the scenario overlay to drop each name's simulated listing outcome onto its own range.

Sort Stage Scenario overlay

Company	Sector	Stage at call	Last mark	Call range	Width	Mark since	Secondary vs round	Raised	Last round	Opened

✅ The graded record

Calls that have listed. Error is measured against the midpoint of the published range.

Company	Sector	Ticker	Listed	Call range	Width	Listed at	Verdict	Error vs mid

🧪 The stress lab — how this board behaves when the window moves

No call has graded yet, so the honest question is not "were we right" but "how hard did we make it on ourselves". Each name is simulated 800 times against a stated pricing model, then the whole IPO window is repriced with the slider. This is a calibration check on our own bands — never a forecast of any one company, and nothing here touches the record.

IPO window repricing 0%

Board hit rate vs the window

Expected share of calls landing inside their published range, across the whole repricing grid. The dot is where the slider sits.

All callsFiledExpected

Every call at this window

Simulated outcome split per name — below the range, inside it, above it.

Below (we were high)InsideAbove (we were low)

🔍 The record by stage

A filed company prices nearer its last round than one that is merely expected, so its band is tighter and its calls are harder. The record is reported separately for each — a blended number would hide that.

Stage	Graded	Inside	Hit rate	Median width

👀 The watchlist — rumored, and graded nowhere

These names carry an indicative range from the same band model, but a rumor band is roughly three times wide: landing inside one proves almost nothing, so none of this counts toward the record.

Company	Sector	Last mark	Mark age	Indicative range	Width	Secondary vs round	Last round	Raised	Founded	Expected