QL EXPECTATIONS
The price is a story.
Test the assumptions.
Explore what a business must deliver to justify a price.
Change the drivers. See the trade-offs. Keep your reasoning.
From a stock price
to a testable investment case.
Filed-baseline simulation. The pinned examples use FY2025 disclosures, not the latest financials; a ticker you pull uses the most recent annual filing on file with our data provider, which can lag the newest quarter. Test prices start at a previous close and are illustrative and editable—not live quotes or recommendations. Analyst targets and estimates are third-party opinions as reported by our data provider, dated and graded against history; the forward cone and conviction read are simulations of your own case, not forecasts.
View sourcesPinned examples with hand-checked FY2025 sources:
Microsoft
YOUR MODEL VALUE
—Per share · scenario, not a targetGROWTH TO JUSTIFY PRICE
—Holding your other inputs fixedVALUE FROM TERMINAL PERIOD
—Assumptions beyond forecast year 502 / EXPLORE THE FUTURES
One business. Different paths.
Scenario paths are sensitivity illustrations, not probabilities or predicted stock returns. Bull: growth +5pp, margin +3pp, discount −1pp. Bear: the opposite. Inputs respect slider limits.
View projection data
02½ / SEE THE VALUE BUILD
Where the number comes from.
Five years of discounted cash flow, plus a terminal value, less net debt, divided by shares. Every bar updates as you move the assumptions.
02¾ / SIMULATE BEING A LITTLE WRONG
How fragile is your number?
Each simulated case nudges growth, margin and the discount rate around your assumptions and values the share again. The histogram morphs live as you drag the sliders.
Simulated draws around your own assumptions, not probabilities of market outcomes or predicted returns. The spread is fixed (growth ±4pp, margin ±3pp, discount ±0.75pp, one sigma) and clamped to the input limits.
03 / FIND THE TRADE-OFF
What would make the price work?
Each cell is a model value per share. Pick a growth and operating-margin combination to make it your case.
04 / CHALLENGE THE CASE
Which assumption matters most?
Ranges change one input at a time. Growth, margin and reinvestment: ±3 percentage points. Discount rate: ±1 point. All values are USD per share.
05 / ASK THE STREET
Where the Street stands.
Every firm’s latest published price target from the trailing twelve months, drawn against your model value and your test price. Targets are third-party analyst opinions as reported by our data provider — dated, graded below, and never a QuantLogix recommendation.
View every firm’s target
06 / TEST THE STREET’S RECORD
Did their targets come true?
Every 12-month price target this name received with a full year of trading behind it, graded against what the stock actually did: reached or missed, and how far realized returns ran from the returns the targets implied. History, not prediction.
View graded targets by year
07 / SIMULATE THE ROAD AHEAD
Twelve months of possible prices.
1,000 simulated daily paths at this stock’s own realized volatility, with the median path drifting to the anchor you choose. The cone shows how wide the road is if the market took twelve months to agree with the anchor — it is not a forecast and assigns no probability to real outcomes.
Forward test: geometric Brownian paths in daily steps, volatility from the trailing year of closes (clamped 5–150%), drift capped at ±60% a year. Every probability is a share of simulated paths, not odds on the stock.
08 / READ THE TAPE
Risk-adjusted technicals.
What the price itself has been doing: trend, momentum, range, realized volatility, drawdown, market beta and the return earned per unit of risk over the trailing year — the risk side of every number above.
09 / CHECK THE BEAT RECORD
Estimates versus what was reported.
Consensus EPS estimates beside reported EPS for the last eight quarters, with the surprise — a backward test of how well the Street has read this business — plus the forward estimate it is publishing now.
10 / WEIGH THE EVIDENCE
How much conviction does your case earn?
Five independent checks — Street agreement, target dispersion, the Street’s track record on this name, the risk-adjusted size of your call, and the robustness of your own model — weighed into one read. A structured summary of evidence, not a probability, a rating or a recommendation.
11 / REHEARSE THE NEXT RESULT
What if the story changes?
Apply a hypothetical change across the forecast. This does not represent a reported earnings result.
Choose a stress to see its impact on your model.
12 / KEEP YOUR REASONING
Save the case, not just the number.
No account sync or automatic alerts yet.
Take the report with you — tables, charts and your reasoning as they stand right now.
YOUR RESEARCH RECORD
Saved assumptions
Each save adds a new version. Restoring a case never overwrites its original. Browser storage is editable and is not a verified investment track record.
FACTS HAVE FOOTNOTES
Reported baseline & provenance
The forecast starts from the company’s most recent annual period end shown above—FY2025 for the pinned examples. It is a filed-baseline exercise, not a same-day valuation. Forecasts, test prices, taxes and reinvestment assumptions are not company guidance. Pulled baselines are read from filings as our data provider reports them and are not independently reviewed.
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UNDER THE HOODA transparent model. Not a crystal ball.
How the math works
Revenue compounds at your growth assumption for five fiscal years. Operating income equals revenue × margin. Unlevered free cash flow equals operating income × (1 − tax rate) minus net reinvestment. Discount those cash flows and a perpetual-growth terminal value, subtract assumed net debt, then divide by assumed shares.
What “price-implied” means
We solve for growth that matches your test price while holding every other input fixed. Other combinations can justify the same price. If no solution exists within −15% to 40% growth, we say so. This is not an observation of market consensus.
What the simulation shows
“Run 2,000 simulations” draws growth, margin and the discount rate from a normal distribution centred on your case with a fixed spread, values every draw, and plots the histogram. It measures how fragile your number is to small errors in your own assumptions. It is not a forecast of the stock and assigns no probability to real-world outcomes.
What the Street view adds
Each firm’s latest published price target from the trailing twelve months, deduplicated per firm, with the consensus label, range and dispersion (one sigma divided by the mean). They are third-party opinions reported by our data provider, dated, and shown so you can compare them with your own value — never a recommendation.
How the backward test grades targets
Every target with a full year of trading behind it starts at the close of the first session on or after its date. It is “reached” if any close inside the next 252 sessions crosses it. We also compare the median return the targets implied with the median return the stock delivered, so a systematic bias shows up as a number.
What the forward cone is
1,000 geometric Brownian paths in daily steps at the stock’s own trailing-year volatility, with the median path drifting to the anchor you choose (your value, the Street’s median, or nothing), drift capped at ±60% a year. Every probability is a share of simulated paths. It is not a forecast.
How conviction is scored
Five checks, each 0–100, weighted: Street agreement 25, target dispersion 15, the Street’s 12-month track record on this name 20, risk-adjusted edge (drift to your value ÷ volatility) 25, and the robustness of your own model across the 2,000 nudged cases 15. Checks without data drop out and the weights renormalize; below 40% coverage no score is shown. It summarizes evidence about your case — it is not a probability, a rating or a recommendation.
Where judgment matters
Margins and reinvestment stay constant across forecast years. The model excludes separate segment forecasts, future dilution, buybacks and a transition to mature economics. Terminal value can dominate. Stress assumptions, inspect the sources, and do not treat a model output as a recommendation.
Research preview · For education and scenario exploration. Investing involves risk. No trades are placed. Next-stage filing updates, company-specific driver models and synced monitoring require additional validation.