QL Exit Waterfall

A private company's headline valuation is not what common holders get. Preferred investors sit ahead of employees and founders with liquidation preferences, and at most exit values somebody is taking their preference instead of converting. This tool models the waterfall round by round from the disclosed capital stack — preferences, equilibrium conversion, dilution, the employee pool — for any company on the QL roster, with every assumption printed next to the number. Incumbents sell an opaque cap-table figure; this is the reproducible version. One discipline, stated up front: this page publishes no odds that an exit happens — that sealed, graded record belongs to QL Exit Odds — and no buyer candidates, which are QL Exit Map's claim. Modeling your own grant? That's QL Equity Compass.

Model a company

Type a roster company and get its stack: who invested what, at what implied ownership, and what each class — and common — takes at any exit value. Preset scenarios are free; the interactive exit slider and the full ladder are part of Pro.

The overhang board

The roster ranked by preference overhang — total preferences ÷ current mark. High overhang means the headline number is doing the most work for preferred and the least for common. Click a row to run its waterfall. Only companies with per-round disclosure rank here; every other roster name still models with an aggregate stack.

Exit waterfalls are model output over the disclosed capital stack — actual liquidation preferences, participation rights, caps, ratchets and seniority are private, differ by company, and can make outcomes materially worse or better than shown. Nothing here reports deal terms, predicts an exit, or is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation.