| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | ±4.8% | -4.0% | over-priced |
| November 7, 2025 | ±4.6% | +3.5% | over-priced |
| August 8, 2025 | ±6.2% | -1.7% | over-priced |
| May 8, 2025 | ±5.8% | +1.0% | over-priced |
| November 8, 2024 | ±6.7% | +4.5% | over-priced |
| August 9, 2024 | ±7.4% | -0.6% | over-priced |
| May 10, 2024 | ±5.3% | +0.3% | over-priced |
| November 7, 2023 | ±2.5% | -1.6% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $2.87 | $5.6B | $1.0B |
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.54 | $4.6B | $233M |
| Q3 FY2025 | $1.75 | $5.0B | $652M |
| Q2 FY2025 | $0.81 | $4.3B | $327M |
Vistra Corp. (VST) reports in 100 days, with the next report estimated for September 21, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±5.4% earnings move while the stock actually moved 2.1% on average — the market has systematically over-priced VST's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 408.6% year-over-year, revenue up 43.4%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads VST as a neutral at 42/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →