| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | ±4.2% | +2.7% | over-priced |
| November 7, 2025 | ±3.4% | +0.3% | over-priced |
| August 7, 2025 | ±3.4% | +2.7% | over-priced |
| May 9, 2025 | ±3.5% | +0.5% | over-priced |
| November 8, 2024 | ±2.3% | -2.0% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $0.12 | $7.7B | $63M |
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.19 | $7.6B | $98M |
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.47 | $8.0B | $245M |
| Q2 FY2025 | $-0.05 | $7.9B | $-26M |
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) reports in 91 days, with the next report estimated for September 12, 2026. Across the last 5 reports, options priced an average ±3.3% earnings move while the stock actually moved 1.6% on average — the market has systematically over-priced SW's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS down 83.6% year-over-year, revenue up 0.7%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads SW as a buy at 60/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →