| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31/2026 | ±6.5% | +0.5% | over-priced |
| 05/11/2026 | ±8.6% | -5.2% | over-priced |
| 02/06/2026 | ±9.6% | +11.4% | under-priced |
| 11/07/2025 | ±8.4% | -1.4% | over-priced |
| 08/28/2025 | ±3.2% | -1.8% | over-priced |
| 05/12/2025 | ±5.5% | +4.8% | over-priced |
| 02/25/2025 | ±15.8% | -11.8% | over-priced |
| 02/25/2025 | ±15.8% | -11.8% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | — | $11.1B | $1.2B |
| Q3 FY2026 | $0.72 | $10.2B | $483M |
| Q2 FY2026 | $0.60 | $12.7B | $401M |
| Q1 FY2026 | $0.26 | $5.0B | $168M |
SMCI (SMCI) reports in 35 days, with the next report estimated for 12/01/2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±9.2% earnings move while the stock actually moved 6.1% on average — the market has systematically over-priced SMCI's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 0.0% year-over-year, revenue up 93.2%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads SMCI as a neutral at 48/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →