| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | ±2.8% | +0.5% | over-priced |
| November 6, 2025 | ±1.8% | -0.5% | over-priced |
| August 7, 2025 | ±1.9% | +1.4% | over-priced |
| May 8, 2025 | ±2.5% | +1.9% | over-priced |
| November 7, 2024 | ±2.1% | -0.9% | over-priced |
| August 8, 2024 | ±3.3% | +1.7% | over-priced |
| May 8, 2024 | ±1.7% | -0.3% | over-priced |
| November 3, 2023 | ±1.6% | +1.8% | under-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $1.91 | $2.4B | $171M |
| Q4 FY2025 | $1.13 | $2.4B | $102M |
| Q3 FY2025 | $2.51 | $2.3B | $227M |
| Q2 FY2025 | $2.67 | $2.2B | $242M |
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) reports in 100 days, with the next report estimated for September 21, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±2.2% earnings move while the stock actually moved 1.1% on average — the market has systematically over-priced PKG's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS down 15.5% year-over-year, revenue up 10.6%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads PKG as a buy at 65/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →