| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | ±2.8% | -0.5% | over-priced |
| 05/04/2026 | ±2.2% | -0.0% | over-priced |
| 03/02/2026 | ±2.2% | -0.1% | over-priced |
| 11/03/2025 | ±1.9% | -1.1% | over-priced |
| 08/04/2025 | ±1.9% | +0.2% | over-priced |
| 05/05/2025 | ±2.3% | -0.2% | over-priced |
| 03/03/2025 | ±2.6% | +1.1% | over-priced |
| 11/04/2024 | ±1.4% | -0.5% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | $5.67 | $23.6B | $3.3B |
| Q1 FY2026 | $4.80 | $22.2B | $2.8B |
| Q4 FY2025 | — | $22.7B | $3.0B |
| Q3 FY2025 | $4.45 | $22.5B | $2.6B |
PGR (PGR) reports in 6 days, with the next report estimated for 11/02/2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±2.2% earnings move while the stock actually moved 0.5% on average — the market has systematically over-priced PGR's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 5.0% year-over-year, revenue up 7.3%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads PGR as a buy at 94/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →