| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | ±3.0% | +0.8% | over-priced |
| November 5, 2025 | ±3.4% | +0.6% | over-priced |
| August 5, 2025 | ±4.3% | +1.2% | over-priced |
| May 2, 2025 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | over-priced |
| November 6, 2024 | ±2.5% | -0.9% | over-priced |
| August 5, 2024 | ±5.0% | -2.5% | over-priced |
| May 3, 2024 | ±1.6% | -0.6% | over-priced |
| November 3, 2023 | ±2.0% | +0.5% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $-1.72 | $16.3B | $-4.2B |
| Q4 FY2025 | $1.20 | $16.4B | $3.0B |
| Q3 FY2025 | $2.32 | $17.3B | $5.8B |
| Q2 FY2025 | $1.76 | $15.8B | $4.4B |
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) reports in 96 days, with the next report estimated for September 17, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±3.2% earnings move while the stock actually moved 0.9% on average — the market has systematically over-priced MRK's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS down 185.6% year-over-year, revenue up 4.9%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads MRK as a buy at 58/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →