| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | ±3.2% | +1.8% | over-priced |
| 05/05/2026 | ±3.9% | +3.2% | over-priced |
| 02/26/2026 | ±2.9% | +2.7% | over-priced |
| 11/04/2025 | ±2.3% | -6.1% | under-priced |
| 08/05/2025 | ±2.4% | +0.6% | over-priced |
| 05/06/2025 | ±3.0% | +0.8% | over-priced |
| 02/27/2025 | ±3.4% | +1.1% | over-priced |
| 11/05/2024 | ±2.5% | +3.2% | under-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | $17.73 | $52.0B | $5.1B |
| Q1 FY2026 | $1.73 | $34.2B | $511M |
| Q4 FY2025 | — | $32.6B | $1.5B |
| Q3 FY2025 | $4.51 | $34.8B | $1.4B |
MPC (MPC) reports in 7 days, with the next report estimated for 11/03/2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±3.0% earnings move while the stock actually moved 2.5% on average — the market has systematically over-priced MPC's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 347.7% year-over-year, revenue up 53.8%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads MPC as a buy at 70/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →