| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | ±4.1% | +2.5% | over-priced |
| November 3, 2025 | ±4.2% | -1.2% | over-priced |
| August 6, 2025 | ±2.6% | -1.5% | over-priced |
| May 7, 2025 | ±2.8% | -0.2% | over-priced |
| November 6, 2024 | ±2.7% | +8.7% | under-priced |
| May 1, 2024 | ±4.4% | -1.1% | over-priced |
| November 1, 2023 | ±3.7% | +2.6% | over-priced |
| August 2, 2023 | ±3.0% | -0.4% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $5.47 | $17.4B | $2.5B |
| Q4 FY2025 | $5.12 | $19.1B | $2.4B |
| Q3 FY2025 | $4.88 | $17.6B | $2.3B |
| Q2 FY2025 | $4.62 | $16.6B | $2.2B |
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) reports in 98 days, with the next report estimated for September 19, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±3.4% earnings move while the stock actually moved 2.3% on average — the market has systematically over-priced CAT's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 30.2% year-over-year, revenue up 22.2%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads CAT as a buy at 61/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →