| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | ±4.3% | +2.5% | over-priced |
| November 10, 2025 | ±2.9% | +0.4% | over-priced |
| August 1, 2025 | ±3.5% | -1.1% | over-priced |
| May 2, 2025 | ±3.0% | +4.2% | under-priced |
| October 29, 2024 | ±1.9% | -0.3% | over-priced |
| May 1, 2024 | ±1.4% | +1.8% | under-priced |
| October 27, 2023 | ±1.8% | -0.7% | over-priced |
| August 4, 2023 | ±1.8% | -0.6% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $3.16 | $4.8B | $823M |
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.58 | $3.6B | $154M |
| Q3 FY2025 | $1.04 | $3.4B | $274M |
| Q2 FY2025 | $1.40 | $3.2B | $366M |
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) reports in 101 days, with the next report estimated for September 22, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±2.6% earnings move while the stock actually moved 1.5% on average — the market has systematically over-priced AJG's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 16.2% year-over-year, revenue up 27.6%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads AJG as a neutral at 41/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →