| Report | Options implied | Actual move | Market was |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | ±3.2% | +0.5% | over-priced |
| November 6, 2025 | ±1.8% | +0.2% | over-priced |
| August 5, 2025 | ±2.6% | +0.2% | over-priced |
| May 7, 2025 | ±3.2% | -0.3% | over-priced |
| November 7, 2024 | ±3.7% | -1.9% | over-priced |
| August 6, 2024 | ±4.2% | +0.6% | over-priced |
| May 9, 2024 | ±2.1% | +0.7% | over-priced |
| November 9, 2023 | ±3.0% | +0.7% | over-priced |
| Quarter | EPS (dil.) | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $2.88 | $4.5B | $1.0B |
| Q4 FY2025 | $3.34 | $4.9B | $1.2B |
| Q3 FY2025 | $3.56 | $5.1B | $1.4B |
| Q2 FY2025 | $3.23 | $5.2B | $1.2B |
Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) reports in 97 days, with the next report estimated for September 18, 2026. Across the last 8 reports, options priced an average ±3.0% earnings move while the stock actually moved 0.6% on average — the market has systematically over-priced ACGL's earnings risk. Fundamentals into the print: EPS up 94.6% year-over-year, revenue down 3.3%. QuantLogix's live 5-factor engine currently reads ACGL as a buy at 59/100.
Implied move is derived from at-the-money option pricing; actual moves are close-to-close on report days. Next-report dates are estimates until confirmed by the company. Educational market analysis, not investment advice. Browse all signal scorecards →