Buy signal with strong conviction and a defined invalidation. Risk $8.02 a share — 2.0 ATR — buys $12.49 of objective. The geometry needs 39.1% to break even; the record behind this setup supports 48.6%.
Modeled hit rate
48.6%
verified basis · 3 inputs blended
Breakeven needed
39.1%
1 ÷ (1 + 1.56 reward:risk)
Edge over breakeven
+9.5pp
Positive expectancy before costs
Expectancy
+0.24R
+1.10% per trade · two-outcome
Reward : risk
1.56 : 1
stop 2.0 ATR · objective 3.1 ATR
Half-Kelly
7.9%
engine caps this card at 5.0%
The position in R
Price and risk on one axis — 1R is the distance to invalidation
Risk leg — entry down to invalidationReward leg — entry up to the objectiveAnalog spread (p10–p90)Entry band · last price
Data table
Level
Price
Read
Objective
$189.37
+7.1% · +1.56R
Entry
$175.68 – $178.08
mid $176.88 · 0R
Last
$176.95
+0.0% vs entry
Invalidation
$168.86
−4.53% · −1.00R
Analog p10
$170.61
-3.6% · Bottom decile
Analog p50
$176.27
-0.4% · Median analog
Analog p90
$184.34
+4.2% · Top decile
Edge & expectancy
Blended from the verified resolved-signal archive, the up-rate of historical analogs, and a shrunk score-implied prior. A directional estimate of the plan working, not a barrier-crossing probability.
Buy (all sectors) n=4553weight 45%43.1%
Historical analogs (20d) n=50weight 35%50.0%
Score-implied priorweight 20%58.4%
Kelly on these numbers is 15.7% of the book, half-Kelly 7.9%. The card recommends no more than half, and the risk console below caps it again against your own budget.
What the score is made of
Composite bridge: 50 + Σ weight × (factor − 50); the unexplained remainder is the engine's own overlays.
Weighted factors explain +19.4 points of the move off 50; +8.7 is engine overlays (macro, regime, squeeze, calibration).
Where the analogs landed
50 similar setups · 5 sessions after the setup · a shorter window than this plan, shown as a spread check, not a forecast
Median analog -0.4% · 46% finished higher · decile spread -3.6% to +4.2%.
Invalidation contract
Written before the position exists
exit
Close below 168.86
2 ATR below entry — the thesis is wrong, not early
trim
Objective 189.37
+1.56R — re-underwrite rather than extend
watch
Options positioning below 40
Weakest leg of the thesis today at 58/100
event
Earnings in 9 sessions
Binary event inside the plan — size for the gap or wait it out
watch
ATR expands beyond 3.4%
Volatility regime change — the stop is no longer where you put it
watch
XOM composite leaves the buy band
The engine re-scores nightly; the card is a snapshot, not a subscription
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.The modeled hit rate is directional, not a barrier-crossing probability; expectancy assumes the plan resolves at its objective or its invalidation.Kelly is quoted as arithmetic, not as a size to take — the card recommends half at most.
Confirm simulated buy
This creates a market order in your active QuantLogix paper wallet. No real funds are used.
Save the decision
Log the thesis in Decision Journal and keep a local 7/30-day review checkpoint on this device.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice. Decision Cards are deterministic model snapshots, not recommendations, forecasts or guarantees. Paper trades use simulated funds.